Ukraine Cannot Wait for Washington’s Next Mood

Ukraine’s war is now 4½ years old, and the diplomacy around it has been a stop-start affair. Technical-level talks are planned for the first half of November in Abu Dhabi, following a rift between Washington and Kyiv and moves by Trump seen as favouring Russia.

Europe should read the signals. The American election has weakened the White House but not erased its leverage, and Trump has suspended direct financial and military aid to Ukraine. A new Congress may try to restore support, and new aid would need two-thirds majorities in both chambers to survive a veto. That is a high bar.

So Europe must plan as if American help is uncertain. That means funding Ukraine’s defense industry, delivering air defense before winter, and offering Kyiv security guarantees credible enough to deter a second invasion. Peace that depends on a pause in Washington’s attention is not peace.

The other side: Skeptics say Europe lacks the industrial capacity to replace US aid, and that pushing a ceasefire now, even imperfect, would save lives.