Giancarlo Elia Valori The current presence of Qassem Alì Soleimani, leader of the Al Quds Force of the “Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps” in Iraq is strategically significant. Certainly, according to the Iranian press, Soleimani was the sole responsible for the destruction of the so-called “Caliphate” of Al Baghdadi, …
Read More »The Russian Federation in the new Middle East
Giancarlo Elia Valori In mid-October of last year, President Trump’s order to leave the Syrian territory as quickly as possible led the Russian military to quickly filling the void left by the U.S. forces. Certainly some U.S. special forces are still operational, but the strategic aim is obviously …
Read More »America’s Great-Power Problems Will Come Back to Haunt It in the Middle East
In the past, when great powers exited a geopolitically critical region, a strategic vacuum ensued. Trump’s hasty withdrawal of troops in Syria, just like his predecessor’s pullout from Iraq, is no exception. When assessing the implications of President Donald Trump’s decision to withdraw some one thousand U.S. servicemen …
Read More »Tension in Hong Kong
Giancarlo Elia Valori After about three months of riots, often particularly violent and destructive, on October 23, 2019 the Chief Executive of Hong Kong, Carrie Lam, alias Chen Yuet-Ngor, withdrew the bill on mandatory extradition to China, which had sparked protests in the former British colony. Never evaluate …
Read More »How the Taliban Won America’s Nineteen-Year War
It is likely that more and more Afghans will start either associating themselves with—or relating to—the Taliban insurgency. As a supporter of the U.S. invasion of Afghanistan, I hoped that we Afghans—in addition to ridding Afghanistan of the Taliban menace—would utilize this opportunity to revive our economy, build …
Read More »Trump Needs to Reestablish Deterrence with Iran
The escalation ladder with Iran has lost several rungs. The attack attributed to Iran on Saudi Aramco oil facilities is the latest in a series of Iranian escalations—the May 14 and June 13 tanker attacks, the June 20 downing of a U.S. drone, and July 19 seizure of …
Read More »North Korea is Missing Its Best Chance for a Deal in a Generation
For a brief moment, North Korea enjoys a dovish, pro-engagement presidency from both its traditional major opponents. If Pyongyang wants a deal, now is the time to go for it. If the North Koreans truly want a deal with their primary opponents – South Korea, Japan, the US, …
Read More »Psychology and indirect strategy
Giancarlo Elia Valori According to the Greek historian Polybius, Alexander the Great used to say that propaganda “serves to maintain and protect the victories after the cessation of hostilities”. This quote is still an essential key to understand the mechanisms of contemporary propaganda and psyops. The current …
Read More »Trump Prepares America for a Great-Power Competition
Donald Trump is neither a warmonger nor an isolationist. His game plan is to ramp up the pressure and “de-escalate on favorable terms.” And he wants to be prepared for the dangers that may one day exist.\ Forget about getting a backbone. America needs an iron constitution for …
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