Washington after the elections: will institutions regain their role in constraining American power?

Key points

• The midterm election results have renewed debate over the balance of power between the White House and Congress.
• Allies continue to view the United States as indispensable, but are increasingly concerned about the continuity of its policies.
• The Middle East and Europe need to engage with American institutions rather than rely exclusively on the administration.
• Washington’s ability to restore confidence will depend on the consistency of its foreign policy and the reliability of its commitments.

American elections are no longer purely domestic affairs confined to Washington. They have become events closely watched by capitals around the world as indicators of the future direction of US foreign policy and the limits of presidential authority. The United States remains the most influential power in several international arenas, but the nature of that influence has become increasingly complicated by partisan divisions, declining confidence among allies and intensifying competition with major powers. The November 2026 midterm elections have therefore revived a fundamental question: to what extent can American institutions regulate the direction of foreign policy when the priorities of the White House and Congress diverge?

The significance of these elections lies not simply in the number of seats gained by one party or lost by another, but in their implications for congressional committees overseeing foreign affairs, defence, intelligence and federal appropriations. Congress possesses important instruments for scrutinising military expenditure, determining foreign assistance priorities, reviewing agreements and holding the administration accountable for its decisions. Any shift in the balance of power on Capitol Hill can consequently affect American policy towards Ukraine, the Middle East and China, even if it does not immediately alter the White House’s strategic direction.

The more important message for America’s allies, however, is that the United States is neither a single administration nor an individual political personality. Major decisions pass through multiple institutions and are influenced by economic interests, military establishments, legislative bodies and public opinion. Allies increasingly recognise that America retains considerable institutional strength, yet they also question the consistency of its external commitments. This uncertainty has become an important factor in how governments assess their long-term relationships with Washington.

For the Middle East, this reality requires a fundamental reassessment of how regional governments engage with the United States. Maintaining personal relationships with the president and senior officials remains valuable, but it is no longer sufficient. Arab governments need durable institutional channels with Congress, the State Department, the Pentagon, intelligence agencies, economic institutions and influential policy research centres. A strategic relationship built exclusively around the administration of the day remains vulnerable to political changes and electoral cycles.

Regional challenges, particularly Gulf security, the confrontation with Iran and the future of Arab-Israeli relations, require an American approach that extends beyond short-term electoral calculations. Stability cannot be achieved through political declarations or demonstrations of military deterrence alone. It requires sustained coordination on maritime security, air and missile defence, energy infrastructure, trade and diplomatic conflict resolution.

Washington does not automatically lose influence when its allies disagree with it. However, it risks undermining its leadership when its commitments become a permanent source of uncertainty. At the same time, America’s partners cannot build their national strategies on the assumption that US policy will remain unchanged. The coming period will require more institutionalised partnerships, more candid dialogue and a greater capacity to manage disagreements.

Elections may determine which party controls Congress, but they cannot independently determine the future of American leadership. That future will depend on whether US institutions can transform political divisions into a sustainable decision-making process, and whether Washington can convince the international community that its strategic commitments extend beyond the electoral calendar.