Critical minerals and artificial intelligence: the next battle for global power

Key points

• US-China competition is moving beyond conventional trade into critical minerals, semiconductors and digital infrastructure.
• Control over supply chains has become a national security priority.
• International cooperation on minerals and technology reflects Washington’s efforts to reduce dependence on China.
• Arab countries have opportunities in energy, minerals, ports and industrial investment, but need a long-term strategy.

Global power is no longer measured exclusively by the number of aircraft carriers or the size of a country’s military arsenal. In the emerging economy, critical minerals, semiconductors, data, energy and computing infrastructure have become essential determinants of a state’s position in the international system. Competition between the United States and China is consequently moving into a more complex arena, where the struggle is not simply over markets but over control of the supply chains underpinning military, civilian and technological industries.

International discussions in 2026 have demonstrated that critical minerals and supply-chain security have become central geopolitical concerns. Washington has promoted cooperation with other countries to diversify mineral sources and reduce China’s influence over this sector, while simultaneously emphasising energy security and the materials required to expand artificial intelligence infrastructure.

The importance of this competition lies in the fact that rare earth elements and other critical materials are essential to advanced radar systems, aircraft, batteries, turbines, data centres and electronic chips. Countries that control extraction, processing, refining and manufacturing possess greater influence over production costs and technological availability. They may even acquire the ability to disrupt entire industrial sectors if supply chains become instruments of political pressure.

Recent international crises have demonstrated that excessive dependence on a single source of essential materials represents a strategic vulnerability. Major corporations no longer consider cost alone when selecting suppliers. Political stability, maritime security and reliable access to materials have become increasingly important considerations. The global economy is therefore moving towards a redistribution of some production and manufacturing centres, not necessarily to abandon globalisation, but to make it more resilient against geopolitical shocks.

Nevertheless, the United States and its partners cannot construct alternative supply chains overnight. Critical minerals require substantial investment, environmental approvals, technical expertise and supporting infrastructure. Establishing processing and refining facilities is expensive and time-consuming, and production costs may initially exceed those of established suppliers. The challenge is therefore not simply to declare independence from China, but to develop a diversified system capable of withstanding political and economic disruption.

This transformation presents an important opportunity for Arab countries. Some possess promising mineral resources, while others benefit from strategic geographical locations, advanced port infrastructure, substantial financial resources and energy capacity capable of supporting electricity-intensive industries. These advantages could form the foundation for processing and advanced manufacturing industries rather than leaving Arab economies dependent on exporting raw materials and importing finished products.

However, taking advantage of this opportunity requires a shift from isolated commercial transactions towards integrated industrial policies. Investment in technical education, research and development, technology transfer and partnerships with international universities and corporations will be essential. Industrial zones connected to ports, logistics networks and reliable energy supplies could also help create a more competitive regional manufacturing base.

Arab countries should avoid becoming competitors for the favour of major powers. Instead, they should diversify their partnerships while preserving the independence of their economic decision-making. Cooperation with the United States, China, Europe and Asian industrial economies can coexist within a strategy designed to strengthen national capabilities rather than deepen external dependence.

Artificial intelligence is not merely a software revolution. It is a physical industrial system dependent on electricity, water, semiconductors, minerals and infrastructure. Countries that control these foundations will possess growing influence over both economic development and national security.

The next global contest may not be determined by who sells the most sophisticated technology, but by who can manufacture it, operate it and protect the supply chains that sustain it. In this changing environment, Arab countries have an opportunity to move from being technology consumers to becoming industrial and strategic partners. Realising that opportunity, however, will require treating minerals and technology as long-term questions of economic sovereignty.