Oil Ends October Up Nearly 14% as Hormuz Attacks Overwhelm Diplomacy

Geostrategic Media Desk Team

Key Features

• WTI settled at $104.12 on Friday and Brent’s January contract at $113.43; Brent rose 13.6% in October and WTI 15.2%, a fourth straight monthly gain for both.
• Goldman Sachs estimates the threat of fresh supply disruption adds roughly $27 a barrel to Brent, suggesting a market driven by risk premium.
• LNG flows through Hormuz are running at about a quarter of pre-war levels; Dutch gas is near 100 euros per megawatt-hour and UK storage is only about 37% full.
• OPEC+ meets on Sunday, and the US midterms on 3 November could shift the Iran outlook.

Oil ended October at its highest levels since late April. Diplomacy between Washington and Tehran produced headlines but not relief: attacks on shipping and on Saudi energy infrastructure kept pushing prices up.

Prices

WTI settled at $104.12 on Friday, up 2.1% on the day and about 1% on the week, its first monthly close above $100 since April. Brent’s now-front January contract settled at $113.43, while the expiring December contract finished at $117.64 after touching $118. The Brent-WTI gap is about $13.5, reflecting international supply and shipping risks. According to CBS News, both benchmarks are up roughly 70% from a year ago. Goldman’s estimate of a $27 risk premium means that exports have at times recovered to near pre-war levels, yet prices stay high on the threat of renewed disruption.

What is driving the market

Hormuz. October saw the most reported attacks on shipping around the strait of any month since March, about 30, roughly double September. Iran says six commercial vessels have hit mines on the US-backed southern route, while US Central Command says the lanes are safe and the US naval blockade has prevented Iran from exporting oil through the strait. CENTCOM says it has helped Gulf partners export more than 1.5 billion barrels of crude since the summer.

Saudi Arabia. Yemen’s Houthis have widened attacks on Saudi energy infrastructure and airports, and Saudi air defenses intercepted more drones and missiles on Friday and Saturday.

Washington. Prices rose again on reports that strike options were being briefed to the president, and Trump’s statement that the war will end soon did little to calm markets.

Gas and consumers

Europe’s gas market remains tight. Dutch TTF day-ahead fell about 2.40 euros to just under 100 euros per megawatt-hour and UK NBP settled around 242 pence per therm, but analysts say the easing reflected thinner geopolitical premium, not better supply. UK storage is only about 37% full against about 75% for the EU, and forecasters put a 70% chance on an unusually early stratospheric warming event in November, which can bring colder weather. In the US, natural gas fell below $3 per MMBtu after a larger-than-expected storage build. High energy costs are reaching consumers: a US cruise ship suspended an around-the-world voyage because of fuel costs, and ExxonMobil’s third-quarter profit more than doubled to $15.4 billion.

What to watch

• OPEC+ on Sunday: whether the group adds or holds output as prices stay high.
• Iran’s answer to the Qatari draft deal and any US action after 3 November.
• Russian supply: Trump’s announced diesel arrangement and the waiver on sanctions for Russian oil buyers.
• The Fed: high energy prices feed inflation, and markets see about an 83% chance of a December rate hike.