Election Eve Showdown: Lawsuits, Ballot Fights and a Senate Seat in Alaska Put America’s Vote to the Test

Geostrategic Media Desk Team

Key Features

• The Justice Department has sued to block certification of Alaska’s Senate race if Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan loses, citing a same-name candidate on the ballot.
• Legal experts quoted by NBC say no law gives the department a clear power to challenge ballots or delay certification; Democrats call the suit an attempt to subvert the election.
• In California, the administration is asking an appeals court to set aside as many as 20,000 mail ballots linked to suspected noncitizens.
• Forecasters still give Democrats strong odds of taking the House on Tuesday, and the Senate may hinge on close races such as Alaska.

The midterm campaign is ending with an unusual fight: not only over who wins, but over how votes are counted and certified. Two states have become flashpoints.

Alaska: the two Sullivans

Alaska’s Senate ballot lists the Republican incumbent, Dan Sullivan, and a second candidate named Daniel J. Sullivan. The Justice Department sued Alaska election officials last week, asking a federal court to block certification if the incumbent does not win and if he would have won had all votes for the other Sullivan counted for him, pending an investigation into voter intent. The department argues that an unlawful ballot cannot be uncounted once cast and counted. President Trump took personal credit for ordering the suit, according to Axios. The challenger in the race is Democrat Mary Peltola.

Critics say the case is weak. Justin Levitt, a former Justice Department official under President Obama, told NBC there is no law that lets the department challenge ballots or delay certification, and legal experts question how voter intent could be judged without compromising ballot secrecy. Sen. Adam Schiff accused the department of trying to subvert elections. Republicans counter that Democrats propped up the same-name candidate to confuse voters, an allegation Democratic figures including Iowa’s Rob Sand have criticized as manipulation. Alaska’s Division of Elections says it is focused on running the election. Attorney General Todd Blanche said last week the department would not get involved in counting and certification absent a “doomsday scenario”, though the Alaska suit was filed the same day.

California: 20,000 ballots

In a separate case, the administration asked a federal court to make Los Angeles County set aside ballots from people it suspects are noncitizens, and a federal appeals court is weighing a request to set aside as many as 20,000 California mail ballots. Judges have raised questions about the government’s case, according to Fox News.

The bigger picture

Axios describes an October wave of Justice Department lawsuits, investigations and arrests that has broken with the traditional calm period before elections. The department says it is part of the executive branch and denies that cases involving prominent figures are linked to the midterms. Supporters of the administration say they are protecting election integrity; critics say the timing risks sowing doubt about results. Meanwhile, tens of millions of Americans have already voted, and forecasters give Democrats between roughly 80% and 94% odds of winning the House and better-than-even odds in the Senate, where Alaska could matter.

What to watch

• Court rulings on the Alaska and California cases before and after Tuesday.
• How quickly close Senate races are called, as counting in some states can take days.
• Whether the losing side accepts the results, and what the Iran decision after the election means for the new Congress.