Geostrategic Media Political Commentary, Analysis, Security, Defense
By Geostrategic Media Analysis Desk | October 28, 2026
Israel’s first national election since the 7 October 2023 attacks has produced a result nobody can govern on: no bloc has a majority, and the arithmetic points toward weeks of coalition bargaining, or another vote.
Where the count stands
With about 85 percent of ballots counted at the latest Central Elections Committee update on Wednesday, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s right-wing and religious bloc stands at 54 of the Knesset’s 120 seats, seven short of the 61 needed. The bloc led by former military chief Gadi Eisenkot has 49. Arab-led parties, which belong to neither camp, are projected at 17. Netanyahu’s Likud remains the largest single party with about 27 seats, followed by Eisenkot’s Yashar! with about 22.
The picture shifted through the night. Tuesday’s exit polls gave Netanyahu’s bloc between 50 and 52 seats and showed some channels with the two camps tied at 51 each. The counted votes have since pulled the incumbent bloc up toward 54, but not near a majority. Netanyahu’s coalition held 68 seats before the dissolution of the Knesset in July, so even the better-than-expected count marks a heavy loss.
Why the Arab parties matter
The projected Arab-party total of 16 to 19 seats across the night would be an unprecedented showing, compared with 10 seats today. Joint List chairman Yousef Jabareen said that any party hoping to replace Netanyahu will need to engage with his faction. That is arithmetically true: Eisenkot’s 49 plus the Arab parties’ 17 gives 66, enough for a majority on paper.
Politically, it is much harder. Some of the parties in Eisenkot’s camp, including Avigdor Lieberman’s Yisrael Beytenu, have historically ruled out sitting in a government that depends on Arab parties. The Arab parties themselves face a choice between backing a government from outside and staying in opposition. Even a promise not to topple a new government, in exchange for policy concessions, would be a major step in Israeli politics.
The regional stakes
This vote is not only domestic. Israel is at war with Iran alongside the United States, Houthi forces are attacking Saudi targets, and Gaza remains unresolved. Markets read the uncertainty quickly: Israeli bonds and the shekel sold off on Wednesday as it became clear that no bloc had a clear mandate. A prolonged caretaker period limits the government’s ability to make big decisions on the war, on a hostage and ceasefire track, or on any normalisation with Saudi Arabia.
Regional capitals are watching for a second reason. A government whose survival depends on the far right would harden Israel’s posture on Gaza and the West Bank. One built around Eisenkot, a former chief of staff, would likely stress security coordination with Washington and a more structured approach to ending the war.
Foresight: four paths ahead
- A unity-style deal. Likud and Yashar! negotiate a government across the aisle, most likely with a rotation or a different leader. Netanyahu’s future would be the main sticking point.
- A narrow Netanyahu coalition. He would need to peel off at least seven seats from the other camp, which looks unlikely at present.
- An Eisenkot government with outside Arab support. Possible on paper, but demanding for his partners.
- New elections. If talks collapse, Israel heads back to the polls, its latest in a long run of repeat votes.
The count is not final, and seat numbers can shift by one or two as the last ballots, including soldiers’ and diplomatic votes, are processed. Official results are certified later. Watch which party leaders President Isaac Herzog hears first when consultations begin, and whether any figure from Eisenkot’s bloc publicly rules the Arab parties in or out.
Sources: Times of Israel, Ynet, Al Jazeera, CNBC, CNN, Israel Hayom and Haaretz reporting, 27–28 October 2026.
