By Dennis Ross In international politics, we often confuse capability with inevitability. The assumption that military superiority guarantees strategic success has shaped countless decisions—and just as often, it has led to miscalculation. As Will and Ariel Durant once observed in The Lessons of History, nature and history do …
Read More »Negotiating Under Fire: The Hidden Logic Behind Israel’s Talks with Lebanon
Dr. Shehab Al-Makahleh Diplomacy, in the Middle East, rarely arrives as a gesture of peace. More often, it emerges as an extension of war by other means—language replacing artillery, but not intent. The recent U.S.-brokered meeting in Washington on April 14, 2026—bringing together representatives of Lebanon and Israel …
Read More »On the Strait of Hormuz, Who Will Blink First, the US or Iran?
Lawrence J. Haas Iran’s economy is already crippled, but still resilient. The US economy is less threatened, but its political system is less tolerant of short-term economic pain. With its blockade of the Strait of Hormuz now in place, Washington faces the twin challenge of maintaining it in …
Read More »The United States, China, Taiwan and the American Decline
Cheng Li-wun, chairwoman of Taiwan’s main opposition party, the Kuomintang (KMT), visited China from April 7–12, 2026. Following a meeting with the Chinese President, Xi Jinping, both leaders indicated their wish to see a peaceful situation over the Taiwan Strait. The KMT leader too remembered the common cultural …
Read More »War, Energy, and the Remaking of Global Order in Beijing’s Image
The looming May 14–15 summit in Beijing between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping presents a puzzle that conventional geopolitical maps struggle to navigate. As Trump seeks to end the major military operations against Iran before this high-stakes visit, he will find a Chinese leader who is not coming …
Read More »Iran’s New Strait of Hormuz Protocol
Iran’s new protocol for the Strait of Hormuz is not a normal maritime regulation. It is a wartime instrument being repackaged as a postwar order. The Reuters report on the ceasefire bargain, the Reuters report on Tehran’s preconditions, and the Reuters report on the Islamabad talks all point …
Read More »Xi Calls For Rule of Law as China Pushes Back on Middle East War
Xi Jinping has called for the international rule of law to be upheld in the Middle East, in a pointed critique of the ongoing Iran war involving the United States and Israel. Speaking during a meeting in Beijing with Khaled bin Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, Xi warned …
Read More »The Ceasefire in the War on Iran: A Fragile Pause Between Escalation and Unresolved War
After 40 days of sustained military confrontation that pushed the region to the brink of a broader Middle Eastern war—and threatened a global energy shock—the United States and Iran announced, on April 8, 2026, a ceasefire agreement mediated by Pakistan. The deal includes a two-week suspension of hostilities …
Read More »The Post–Strait of Hormuz Era and the Urgent Options Facing the Gulf States
Amelie Shawn Some ships pass through the Strait of Hormuz after the ceasefire. April 8, 2026 (Shadi Al-Asaar/Anadolu) The Strait of Hormuz will remain the world’s central energy artery and the essential outlet for global oil and gas exports. It is a critical maritime chokepoint through which more …
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