Geostrategic Media Political Commentary, Analysis, Security, Defense
James Holmes A prolonged crisis in Hormuz could drive the US Navy out from its longstanding base in Bahrain. Trouble would inevitably follow. This week’s ceasefire aside, the portents are grim for the US Navy’s long-term posture in the Middle East and beyond. Even if the Trump …
April, 2026
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12 April
The impact of the US-Israel-Iran crisis on Asia
Dr. Dan Steinbock At the peak of the crisis, oil surged to $110–116/bbl. But it remains volatile at $90–100 after ceasefire pause. Liquefied natural gas (LNG) took an even harder hit. Oil price surged more than 50%, but LNG soared as much as 143% – a 3-year high. …
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12 April
US-Iran peace talks in Pakistan end in stalemate
The U. S. and Iran did not reach an agreement to end their ongoing war after lengthy talks in Islamabad, which raised concerns about the ceasefire. Each side blamed the other for the failure of the 21-hour negotiations, which have resulted in numerous casualties and increased global oil …
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12 April
Geopolitics, Tamil Statehood, and the Search for a Political Solution
Hadi Elis The Tamil people possess one of the world’s oldest continuous cultural and civilizational identities. Historian Michael Wood once described the Tamils as “the last surviving classical civilization on Earth,” noting their remarkable ability to preserve ancient traditions, language, and literature despite centuries of external pressures. Their …
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10 April
Middle East war threatens global food security, growth, warn IMF, World Bank, WFP
The war in the Middle East is driving major disruptions in global energy markets and risks worsening food insecurity, particularly in low-income, import-dependent countries, the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the World Bank Group (WBG), and the World Food Program (WFP) warned Wednesday. In a joint statement, the institutions …
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10 April
The Ceasefire in the War on Iran: A Fragile Pause Between Escalation and Unresolved War
After 40 days of sustained military confrontation that pushed the region to the brink of a broader Middle Eastern war—and threatened a global energy shock—the United States and Iran announced, on April 8, 2026, a ceasefire agreement mediated by Pakistan. The deal includes a two-week suspension of hostilities …
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10 April
The Post–Strait of Hormuz Era and the Urgent Options Facing the Gulf States
Amelie Shawn Some ships pass through the Strait of Hormuz after the ceasefire. April 8, 2026 (Shadi Al-Asaar/Anadolu) The Strait of Hormuz will remain the world’s central energy artery and the essential outlet for global oil and gas exports. It is a critical maritime chokepoint through which more …
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10 April
Between Fragile Ceasefire and Expanding War: Israel, Iran, and the Illusion of Control
A Ceasefire Built on Shifting Ground It is impossible to assert with confidence that the temporary ceasefire between Washington and Tehran will hold in the coming period, or that Israel’s claimed adherence to it will remain intact. The agreement itself is already contested in its interpretation, with conflicting …
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10 April
Between Fear and Design: Iran, America, and the Islamabad Moment
Dr. Shehab Al-Makahleh History rarely repeats itself—but it often rehearses. And sometimes, as Henry Kissinger once understood better than most, it disguises its turning points as technical meetings, obscure channels, and carefully staged ambiguities. In 1972, a quiet backchannel in Islamabad—facilitated through Pakistani intermediaries—helped orchestrate one of the …
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