Greg Priddy Oil markets are losing an estimated 15 million barrels per day from the closure of the Strait of Hormuz—a loss that spells disaster for the global economy. Among most people in the financial world, the idea of a near-total halt in flows of oil through the …
Read More »The War That Was Supposed to be Easy
Beneath the visible theater of warfare, a more consequential dynamic appears to be unfolding. It is one that suggests the United States may have misjudged not merely Iran’s capabilities but the nature of the war itself. The assumption was that a few days into the war, especially after …
Read More »Preparing for the Pacific by Watching the Gulf: How China Is Turning the Iran Conflict into a Military Laboratory
While the world’s eyes are fixed on the Strait of Hormuz and the simmering U.S.-Israeli-Iran standoff, a subtler, far-reaching geopolitical play is unfolding: China is quietly treating Iran as a testing ground for the next generation of multi-platform warfare. The Chinese “Missile Saturation Theory,” long theorized in Beijing’s …
Read More »Trump Signals Escalation in the Strait of Hormuz – But Who Will Join Him?
In a statement that underscores both America’s resolve and the uncertainty surrounding its allies, President Donald Trump declared that many nations would send warships to keep the Strait of Hormuz open. Yet, in a move that has left analysts scrambling, he did not specify which countries would participate. …
Read More »When Elasticity Fails: The New Fragility of the Global Energy System
Yannis Bassias The confrontation in the Persian Gulf has not created new vulnerabilities. It has revealed the architecture of a global energy system that has been losing resilience for more than a decade. Markets long assumed that disruptions would remain isolated, that shocks would arrive one at a …
Read More »How China Sees the U.S. Terror Designation of Sudan’s Muslim Brotherhood—and Its Impact on the Iran Conflict
Dr. Nadya Hilmi China has not officially announced a detailed position on the United States’ designation of the Muslim Brotherhood in Sudan as a terrorist organization. However, Chinese intelligence circles view it with suspicion, seeing it as a tool for American pressure to increase influence. China is focused …
Read More »Al-Makahleh: When War Outruns Strategy: Notes from a Closed-Door Conversation in Washington
Dr. Shehab Al-Makahleh On Friday afternoon, I attended a closed-door meeting with a senior investment adviser in Washington whose career spans multiple U.S. administrations and institutions. Over the past four decades, he served in roles connected to the administrations of Ronald Reagan, George H. W. Bush, Bill Clinton, …
Read More »Debt heavy Europe faces energy shock
European governments are coming under renewed pressure to shield households and businesses from soaring energy costs as the war triggered by U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran pushes oil and gas prices higher. However, fiscal constraints across the region mean governments may not be able to repeat the …
Read More »$14B Taiwan arms deal awaits Trump’s Approval
A major U.S. weapons package for Taiwan worth about 14 billion dollars is awaiting approval from Donald Trump and could be announced after his planned visit to China later this month, according to sources familiar with the discussions. The proposed deal would be the largest U.S. arms sale …
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