Geostrategic Media Political Commentary, Analysis, Security, Defense
Vance’s role as the Republican National Committee’s chief fundraiser has helped him get in front of another key constituency – donors – and made him the face of midterm campaigning.
But Rubio has run for president once before, has a longer track record with donors and has more experience politically and on foreign policy, an area in which Vance has actively tried to improve his bona fides.
Vance appears to be auditioning for Trump’s endorsement in negotiating an Iran deal, one person close to the White House said, a charge that friends of the vice president denied.
Trump has been taking note and critiquing his performance. “I thought JD Vance this morning was fantastic,” Trump said on June 22 after Vance traveled overseas to meet with Iranian leaders. “I watched his news conference from Switzerland. He’s a very smart guy. He did a great job.”
But a few days earlier, on June 17, the president quipped that if the deal goes sideways, it will be Vance’s fault.
A bad deal would be a death knell for Vance, one person close to the White House said. If the perception is that it’s not a win, it will be a massive political vulnerability for him, the person added.
Trump loves to keep people guessing and motivated to impress him, and he has repeatedly waited until the last minute to endorse. If Trump does that with Vance, it could give other potential candidates an opening.
Rubio has said he wants to stay in his current role until the end of Trump’s term and has indicated publicly that he won’t run if Vance does. But one insider said Rubio’s actions, like taking the White House podium in May, tell a different story.
Trump has suggested multiple times that they run together on one ticket. He hasn’t said which one of them should be at the top.
Three sources close to the White House said U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz, who declined to comment, is also considering a run, and other big names could emerge.
Vance ‘can wait longer than anyone else’
Trump proved again and again during the early midterm election jockeying that his endorsement drives outcomes in GOP primaries. The MAGA base has rallied behind nearly every congressional candidate he backed.
Retired real estate agent Paul Ayers, a 73-year-old Trump backer who came to Washington from Phoenix to attend the president’s rally, said that Vance and Rubio are “both really excellent” but he suspects the VP would have the organizing edge. He notes that Trump’s pick for Iowa governor, Randy Feenstra, lost the Republican primary to a Turning Point USA-backed candidate.
“I think I’m going to go with Vance no matter what,” he said of a Trump endorsement.
Vance has said he’ll huddle with his wife, Usha, after the midterms, without specifying when exactly he’ll make an announcement.
“I just haven’t really thought that much about it,” Vance told USA TODAY when asked if he thought it had to be by the end of the year.
Vance’s team hasn’t done any polling or organizing in possible early states, and they don’t view him as needing to make a decision in 2026.
GOP operatives with experience on presidential campaigns have mixed views on how long Vance can wait. Early jockeying could begin shortly after the midterms, but candidates with stronger name ID may have a longer runway.
“By virtue of his official position, Vance is a major player without having to announce,” said Mike DuHaime, a GOP consultant and former political director for the RNC. “He can wait longer than anyone else.”
Republican strategist Matt Gorman said the incumbency advantage helps Vance – he can travel on Air Force Two and he’s exempt from a law that restricts U.S. officials’ ability to engage in politics.
And while Trump’s pick of Vance as his running mate was a de facto endorsement of his ability to step into the top job, Gorman said, “I don’t expect, candidly, Trump to, the day after the midterms, anoint Vance.”
“Vance will go out, and he’ll earn it.”
