Geostrategic Media Political Commentary, Analysis, Security, Defense
Claudia Sheinbaum is poised to become Mexico’s first female president on 1 October. Her Morena three-party coalition swept to victory with a decisive 30-point lead over her main opponent Xochitl Galvez.
In addition to the presidency, her coalition is projected to win seven of the nine governorships in play, including Mexico City. The two-thirds super majorities in the bicameral congress required for constitutional amendments are within reach.
Sheinbaum will have a strong mandate to continue the signature policies of outgoing president Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (‘AMLO’) while putting her own specific stamp on the policy direction of her government.
In the coming months she will focus on a broad range of pressing domestic issues, from public security to tackling considerable fiscal and government debt pressures in order to finance massive social welfare and infrastructure programs begun under AMLO.
Although foreign affairs traditionally take a back seat in domestic political debate, shifting geopolitical trends and electoral outcomes in the United States will have an outsize impact on key elements of Sheinbaum’s domestic agenda.
Mexico is the world’s twelfth largest economy and a key multilateral stakeholder, and Sheinbaum has an opportunity to strike a contrast with her predecessor’s approach in the way she shapes her country’s global footprint.
Time for bridge-building?
Over the years, Mexico has made numerous contributions to the multilateral system, from the United Nations to ad hoc fora like the G20, playing a respected consensus-building role on issues from climate change to disarmament. But AMLO largely delegated attendance at international summits, arguing that his priority should be domestic issues.
With her popular mandate, Sheinbaum is in a strong position to change that approach, making a more meaningful, direct contribution in a turbulent world in which Global South bridge-builders are in short supply.
The first international gathering scheduled after Sheinbaum takes office will be the G20 summit, hosted by Brazil in mid-November. Her attendance would provide a useful opportunity to build relationships with global leaders, signal her domestic priorities, and stake out positions on the grouping’s evolving focus on inclusion and inequality, food security and international governance.
Climate change is another area where Sheinbaum has the opportunity to undertake more vigorous leadership than her predecessor. A climate scientist by training, she committed to give more emphasis to energy transition issues and renewables during her campaign.
COP 29, the next UN climate change conference, held in Azerbaijan weeks after she takes office, will present another opportunity for the new president’s environmental team to engage with key players.
The United States
Immigration and security cooperation – particularly to fight fentanyl trafficking – are the two most vexing and politically charged issues in relations with the US. Tackling them will be Sheinbaum’s most immediate challenge, fuelled by November’s looming US presidential election. Building upon existing engagement with Washington in a way that produces measurable results will be crucial on its own terms, but also to ensure stability in the overall management of the relationship.
On the economic front, Mexico is firmly in place as the US’s top trading partner. The economy is poised to benefit significantly from post-pandemic near-shoring investment trends, US–China competition and Washington’s increasingly ingrained aversion to trade negotiations that include preferential market access.
Consolidating Mexico’s North American economic dimension will likely be a top priority, including preparing for the 2026 review of the US–Mexico–Canada Agreement (USMCA). Aligning strategies to address concerns, mainly from Washington, about trade triangulation and investment from China will also be crucial.
Leading a new administration, Sheinbaum will also have the opportunity to reframe dialogue across a range of issues, building on current engagement with Washington on semiconductors and the modernization of border infrastructure, and building collaboration around energy and environmental cooperation.
A potential victory by a more confrontational and unilateralist Donald Trump will make this type of engagement more difficult but equally necessary. Her government will have to prepare for both scenarios.
Europe
An updated Mexico–EU Global Agreement was concluded in 2019, but its signature and eventual ratification have been delayed by a combination of Mexican reticence in accepting its energy provisions and European bureaucratic hurdles. A post-Brexit stand-alone trade agreement with the UK is still being negotiated.
After this month’s European Parliament elections, forward movement on the Global Agreement would burnish Sheinbaum’s credentials against rising protectionism, within a region that has also been a consistent partner in various multilateral initiatives beyond trade.
Latin America
Regional consensus-building in Latin America is challenging in a region fractured by deep ideological divides. Relations with key regional players such as Argentina and Peru have suffered.
Most recently relations with Ecuador soured following its violation of the Mexican Embassy’s diplomatic immunity, leading to a case at the International Court of Justice.
In this context, creative approaches to relations with Chile, traditional strategic rival Brazil, and countries that seek greater participation in the North American economic space such as Costa Rica and Uruguay are potential windows of opportunity for meaningful engagement.
During AMLO’s administration, relations with Mexico’s Central American neighbours have focused on controlling immigration flows, with increased pressure from Washington to clamp down on enforcement. Mexico has strengthened actions in this regard, while seeking to focus on the root causes of immigration, including by calling for greater US funding for regional development programs.
The outgoing AMLO administration has directed funds to implement signature youth and agricultural employment programs in El Salvador, Honduras and Guatemala. But developing a more comprehensive, financially robust strategy that broadens the scope of cooperation on border and energy infrastructure, and that aligns with development initiatives from the US and Europe would be a smart strategic investment.
Asia
As part of the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Transpacific Partnership (CPTPP), Mexico’s Asian partners are important players in Mexico’s investment ecosystem and increasingly significant export markets for its products.
Sustained engagement will be essential. Striking a balance between Mexico’s national interests in relations with China – its second largest trading partner and third export market – and with US and North American strategic imperatives, will be another key challenge.
As arguably Latin America’s most globally integrated player, backed by the unique competitive advantage stemming from its North American dimension, Mexico stands to benefit greatly from a stable, open, rules-based international system.
Wise, strategic investments in its foreign policy, and proactive approaches with regional and global partners can play a decisive role in that direction.
