Home / OPINION / Analysis / Canada election results recap: Liberals to form minority government

Canada election results recap: Liberals to form minority government

After a divisive six-week campaign, the speeches are over and the debates are done — Canadians have decided the 2019 federal election. Here’s the latest from across the country:

1:10 a.m. — In an unusual move, Justin Trudeau began his acceptance speech as Conservative Leader Andrew Scheer started his concessions. Typically, leaders allow other candidates to wrap their speeches before taking the stage on their own. Scheer said the Conservatives were putting Trudeau “on notice.

“Mr. Trudeau, when your government falls, Conservatives will be ready, and we will win.”

Trudeau, too, acknowledged the divide in the country. “To those who did not vote for us, know that we will work every single day for you. We will govern for everyone,” the Prime Minister said.

Jagmeet Singh, speaking to a crowded hall in Burnaby, B.C., promised “New Democrats are going to Ottawa to fight for you.”

12:55 a.m. — Statement from Mayor John Tory: “I look forward to meeting again with the Prime Minister as soon as possible to discuss how our governments can work together on addressing Toronto’s needs. There is much work to be done in the coming years and I look forward to working with federal Members of Parliament from all parties to get on with building transit and affordable housing and addressing other crucially important issues such as community safety, mental health and addictions.”

12:45 a.m. — With results still trickling in early Tuesday, the Liberals had 157 seats — 13 short of the 170 needed for a majority in the 338-seat House of Commons.

A resurgent Bloc Quebecois scooped up 32 seats, dashing Liberal hopes of making gains in Quebec that could have ensured a second consecutive majority mandate.

Despite a strong campaign by NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh, his party was leading or elected in just 25 seats and nearly wiped out in Quebec, the province that only eight years ago delivered an orange wave that pushed the NDP into official Opposition status for the first — and so far, only— time. Singh’s tally fell almost 20 seats short of the party’s haul in 2015, which was deemed bad enough by rank and file New Democrats to warrant firing leader Tom Mulcair.

12:28 a.m. — Former Liberal cabinet minister Jody Wilson-Raybould has been successful in her bid to get re-elected as an Independent candidate.

Roughly 27.4 million people are eligible to vote at one of the approximately 20,000 polling places across the country, according to Elections Canada.

Wilson-Raybould quit Justin Trudeau’s cabinet after she accused the prime minister and his office of inappropriately pressuring her as the attorney general to intervene in the criminal prosecution of Quebec engineering giant SNC-Lavalin on corruption charges.

The Canadian Press is projecting that Wilson-Raybould will win her seat of Vancouver Granville.

12:15 a.m. — Former Liberal cabinet minister Jody Wilson-Raybould was locked in a tight three-way battle to retain her riding as an Independent in early results from Monday’s federal election.

Wilson-Raybould quit Justin Trudeau’s cabinet after she accused the prime minister and his office of inappropriately pressuring her as the attorney general to intervene in the criminal prosecution of Quebec engineering giant SNC-Lavalin on corruption charges.

Her decision to leave cabinet over the affair was followed by Jane Philpott, who failed in her attempt to win as Independent in the Ontario riding of Markham-Stouffville.

Toronto voters are already heading to the polls. Liberal party leader Justin Trudeau is neck in neck with Conservative Leader Andrew Scheer as they both attempt to be elected the country’s prime minister.

Trudeau eventually kicked both women out of the Liberal caucus and many of their supporters saw it as vindication when the federal ethics commissioner concluded that Trudeau violated the Conflict of Interest Act by improperly pressuring Wilson-Raybould to stop the prosecution of SNC-Lavalin.

After trailing in early results, dozens of supporters erupted in cheers when Wilson-Raybould pulled into first place with 55 of 205 polls reporting results, followed closely by Conservative Zach Segal and Liberal Taleeb Noormohamed.

Wilson-Raybould won the seat handily for the Liberals in 2015.

12:05 a.m. — It’s Tuesday morning in much of Canada, but in the West it is still Monday night — and NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh has won re-election in his B.C. seat.

Singh is projected to be re-elected in Burnaby South, with his party leading or elected in 24 seats, which would be a decline from the 39 seats the party held when Parliament was dissolved for the election campaign.

The electoral map is now coming into closer focus with a Conservative sweep of Saskatchewan, including leader Andrew Scheer’s re-election, and a near sweep in Alberta as part of the 121 ridings they are leading in or have been elected.

The Liberals are leading or have captured 157 seats nationwide, many of them in Ontario, Quebec and in Atlantic Canada.

In B.C., Liberal Terry Beech is projected to hold his Vancouver-area riding of Burnaby North-Seymour where the government’s purchase and support of the Trans Mountain pipeline project was controversial.

The Greens will have three seats in the House of Commons, as Paul Manly is projected to keep his B.C. seat in Nanaimo-Ladysmith.

11:55 p.m. — Toronto and its surrounding regions once again played a key role in delivering the Liberals an electoral victory Monday night.

The 905 is home to several ridings that were considered up for grabs — and a key path to forming government — but in the end, only two seats in the region were set to change hands from the 2015 election, when the Liberals nearly swept the GTA.

Conservative former cabinet minister Lisa Raitt was defeated in Milton to Adam van Koeverden, a former Olympian, for the Liberals. In Aurora-Oak Ridges-Richmond Hill, Leona Alleslev won for the Conservatives in the same seat she captured for the Liberals in 2015, before she crossed the floor.

The Liberals were also set to sweep the city of Toronto, holding off challenges from the NDP, who had hoped to regain four ridings they lost in 2015.

Ontario, which holds nearly a third of Parliament’s 338 seats, proved irresistible to the leaders of the three major parties, who visited the province far more than any other.

11:52 p.m. — NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh re-elected in riding of Burnaby South.

11:46 p.m. — Justin Trudeau remains prime minister but the Liberals will need the support of at least one party to govern a country that emerged bitterly divided from a bruising 40-day election campaign.

With results still pouring in late Monday, the Liberals had 157 seats — 13 short of the 170 needed for a majority in the 338-seat House of Commons.

A resurgent Bloc Quebecois scooped up 32 seats, dashing Liberal hopes of making gains in Quebec that could have ensured a second consecutive majority mandate.

Despite a strong campaign by NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh, his party was leading or elected in just 23 seats and nearly wiped out in Quebec, the province that only eight years ago delivered an orange wave that pushed the NDP into official Opposition status for the first — and so far, only— time.

Nevertheless, Monday’s result leaves the NDP potentially in the driver’s seat, holding the balance of power.

Trudeau, whose Liberals entered the campaign with 177 seats, will need the support of either the NDP or the Bloc to command the confidence of the House of Commons, the first test of which will come within weeks on a throne speech to open a new session of Parliament.

And that could well exacerbate divisions that worsened over the course of the campaign and were apparent in the Liberals’ being shut out entirely in Alberta and Saskatchewan. The two oil-producing provinces went solid blue, delivering every seat to the Conservatives.

Indeed, the Conservatives were slightly ahead in the popular vote overall. But with so much of their vote concentrated in the two western provinces, the party fell short of the Liberals’ tally, taking just 121 ridings.

The Liberals owed their lead over the Tories largely to Ontario. The country’s largest province delivered 79 seats to the Liberals, compared to 36 for the Conservatives and just six for the NDP.

In Quebec, the Liberals were down to 35 seats, just ahead of the Bloc Quebecois with 32. The Conservatives were leading in 10 and NDP in one.

The Liberals also dominated in Atlantic Canada. Early results had the Liberals leading in 24 of the region’s 32 ridings, the Conservatives in six, the NDP in one and, in something of a surprise, the Greens in one: Fredericton.

The Green party, which had hoped for a big breakthrough in this election, had three seats, up just one.

11:38 p.m. — Early election returns are indicating the Bloc Quebecois could more than triple its seat total from the previous election and leapfrog over the NDP to become the second opposition in the House of Commons.

Two hours after polls closed in the province, the party was elected or leading in 32 of the province’s 78 ridings, a significant jump from the 10 it won last election.

The party’s resurgence in Quebec was a key factor preventing the Liberals from winning a second majority, meaning they will need at least one other party’s support to pass legislation in a minority Parliament.

11:23 p.m. — Independent candidate Jane Philpott, former health minister who resigned from cabinet and was removed from caucus, lost in Markham-Stouffville to Liberal Helena Jaczek, former health minister for Ontario.

11:21 p.m. — The Liberals and the Bloc Quebecois are jockeying for the lead in Quebec, with each party having been declared the winner in 27 of the province’s 78 ridings almost two hours after polls closed.

Bloc Quebecois leader Yves-Francois Blanchet was projected to win his riding, as was Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau and a handful of his cabinet ministers, including Marc Garneau and Melanie Joly.

Eight years after sweeping Quebec in the so-called “orange wave,” the NDP was elected or leading in just one riding in the province.

In 2015, Trudeau’s Liberals sailed to their best showing in the province in decades as they won 40 of the province’s 78 ridings, but they appear set to lose some of their support this time.

11:20 p.m. — Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau is getting back more of his trusted cabinet ministers but losing a key member of his government.

The Canadian Press projects that Chrystia Freeland will be re-elected in her Toronto riding of University-Rosedale, Bill Morneau in Toronto Centre, and Marc Garneau in the Montreal riding of Notre-Dame-de-Grace-Westmount.

But The Canadian Press also projects that Ralph Goodale, a stalwart of the Liberal party who held cabinet posts under three prime ministers, will not win re-election in his Saskatchewan riding, losing to Conservative Michael Kram.

The Liberals also look as though they have been completely shut out of Alberta, with all but one riding going to the Conservatives.

Heather McPherson will likely hold Edmonton Strathcona for the New Democrats.

Results in Quebec, which continue to pour in, suggest that Alexandre Boulerice will be the only New Democrat left standing in the province.

In the Quebec riding of Beauce, Maxime Bernier is telling supporters that what his upstart People’s Party of Canada was able to achieve in one year was spectacular, and only the beginning of his political movement.

11:18 p.m. — Green Party Leader Elizabeth May wins Saanich-Gulf Islands.

11:11 p.m. — Conservative Leader Andrew Scheer has been re-elected in his Regina-Qu’Appelle riding. Scheer has held this riding since 2004.

11:08 p.m. — Justin Trudeau is expected to remain prime minister but the Liberals may need the support of one or more opposition parties to govern.

The Liberals are elected or leading in 144 ridings across the country — 26 short of the 170 seats needed for a majority in the 338-seat House of Commons.

Andrew Scheer’s Conservatives are leading or elected in 105 ridings, while the NDP has 18 and the Greens one.

A power outage from Broadview to Victoria Park had voters casting their ballots by lantern light at Bruce Public School.

Some ridings, especially in British Columbia, have yet to report any results and others have reported only a few polls’ worth.

But it appears that Trudeau will at least have a shot at a second mandate, with a minority government.

11:07 p.m. — High profile Liberal cabinet minister Chrystia Freeland elected in University-Rosedale.

11:05 p.m. — Longtime Liberal MP Ralph Goodale has gone down to defeat in his riding in Saskatchewan. Goodale, 70, lost his seat to Conservative Michael Kram.

11 p.m. — The Canadian Press is projecting that People’s Party of Canada Leader Maxime Bernier has lost his seat in Beauce, the only one his upstart party had going into the election.

Bernier had handily won the riding in 2015 and had held the seat since 2006, but split from the Conservatives after losing the party leadership to Andrew Scheer.

The Canadian Press is also projecting Liberal cabinet ministers Navdeep Bains to win in his Toronto-area riding, Patty Hajdu in Thunder Bay, Catherine McKenna in Ottawa and Maryam Monsef in Peterborough.

The Liberals are leading or elected in 147 seats, the Conservatives in 118, the Bloc in 36, New Democrats in 25 and the Greens in three.

The Canadian Press also projects that Liberal cabinet minister Amarjeet Sohi will lose his Edmonton seat to former Conservative MP Tim Uppal, while one-time Liberal cabinet minister Kent Hehr will lose his Calgary seat.

Meanwhile, in Burnaby, B.C., the mood is sombre among supporters entering the ballroom at NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh’s election night party, where campaign staffers — hoping for a bigger breakthrough — are anxiously looking at TV screens and their smartphones.

10:56 p.m. ET — Conservative Party veteran Lisa Raitt lost her re-election bid in Milton, to former OIympian Adam van Koeverden (Liberals).

Raitt served as Deputy Leader of the Opposition under Andrew Scheer, and served several portfolios as a minister under Stephen Harper.

10:55 p.m. ET — Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau re-elected in his riding of Papineau.

10:43 p.m. ET — People’s Party of Canada Leader Maxime Bernier won’t be re-elected in his own Quebec riding of Beauce.

The Canadian Press projects that Bernier will lose the seat he won repeatedly as a Conservative to the party’s new nominee, Richard Lehoux.

Bernier, who narrowly lost the Conservative party leadership to Andrew Scheer in 2017, broke away and founded his own populist party the following year.

10:42 p.m. ET — Renata Ford, widow of notorious Toronto Mayor Rob Ford, sister-in-law to Ontario Premier Doug Ford, defeated in Etobicoke North by Kirsty Duncan (Liberal), science and sport minister.

10:24 p.m. ET — The Canadian Press is projecting that the Liberal party will win the most seats in the 2019 federal election, giving them the best chance to form the next government.

Whether Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau wins a majority, however — or can reach an arrangement with another party to sustain a minority government — is yet to be determined.

The Liberals left Atlantic Canada with a commanding lead, down just a few seat from their sweep in the region in 2015, and the gains Conservatives made as more westerly votes were counted were not enough to make up the difference.

The New Democrats have been reduced to a rump in Quebec thanks to a resurgent Bloc Quebecois taking back numerous seats from the NDP.

With ballots yet to be counted in many British Columbia ridings, expected to be the Green party’s likeliest territory for pickups, the Greens are still enjoying a commanding lead in the New Brunswick riding of Fredericton.

10:22 p.m. ET — Liberals projected to form government.

10:17 p.m. ET — The Liberals are leading in key Toronto-area ridings in a province that could make or break electoral hopes with nearly one-third of the country’s seats.

With results just starting to trickle in after polls closed at 9:30 p.m., the Liberals so far appear poised to grab more seats in the province than the Tories.

The NDP was leading in five ridings, including in some northern Ontario seats that the Liberals had won in 2015.

Ontario, and in particular the suburbs of the GTA, played host to the leaders of the three major parties far more than any other region.

The so-called 905 area ringing Toronto and southwestern Ontario is home to several swing ridings that were considered up for grabs — and key to victory.

10:15 p.m. ET — Three hours after the polls closed in Atlantic Canada, Liberals were declared elected in 24 of the region’s 32 ridings, the Tories had picked up four and the NDP and Greens each added one. The outcome in the other two ridings remained uncertain.

Get more politics in your inbox
Make sense of what’s happening across the country and around the world with the Star’s This Week in Politics newsletter.
Sign Up Now
10:13 p.m. ET — Liberals leading or elected in 128 ridings across the country, Conservatives with 100, Bloc Quebecois (28), NDP (13) and Greens with one seat.

10:08 p.m. ET — Justin Trudeau’s Liberals are off to a relatively strong start as election results roll in across the country, with the last polls in British Columbia just closed.

Early returns have the Liberals leading or elected in 94 seats, to the Conservatives’ 64, the NDP’s eight and the Greens and Bloc Quebecois with one each.

The Liberals are showing strength in Quebec and Ontario. In Quebec, the Liberals are leading in 21 ridings, just ahead of the Bloc Quebecois with 18. The Conservatives are leading in five and the NDP in just one.

And in Ontario, the Liberals are leading in 41 ridings, to the Conservatives’ 29 and NDP’s five

10 p.m. ET — Polls close in B.C.

9:45 p.m. ET — There are still three ridings in Atlantic Canada that remain too close to call, with Liberals leading in two and the Conservatives in one.

Overall, the Liberals are leading or elected in 44 ridings, Conservatives in 12, and New Democrats and the Bloc each have four.

People’s Party Leader Maxime Bernier is also in a hard fight for his Quebec riding of Beauce, where Conservative Pierre Lehoux is ahead by more than 200 votes with about two per cent of the vote counted.

9:39 p.m. ET — Andre Pratte quits Senate post after two years effective tonight. The former editor at La Presse, appointed by Justin Trudeau, says it’s got nothing to do with the election campaign, but he doesn’t think he has any aptitude for the job. He says he’s sorry for letting down the prime minister. Pratte says there comes a time when you realize you don’t have the skills or motivation for the job; His resignation was effective tonight at 9:30 pm ET.

9:38 p.m. ET — It looks like Bloc Quebecois has won its first seat, with early projections calling for Guy Bernatchez to take the riding of Gaspésie-Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine. (But by the end of the night, with all the polls counted, Diane Lebouthillier, who served in the Liberal cabinet as revenue minister, has won.)

9:35 p.m. ET — Green Leader Elizabeth May is arriving at her election night party on the West Coast just in time to see her party’s first win of the night — on the East Coast.

The Canadian Press projects that Green candidate Jenica Atwin will come out on top after a tight three-way race in the New Brunswick riding of Fredericton. The win gives the Greens their first federal victory outside of British Columbia.

Speaking to reporters at her election night party, a smiling Atwin is reflecting on the hard work she had put into the campaign.

Meanwhile, longtime MP Wayne Easter has won in Malpeque, securing a sweep of Prince Edward Island for the Liberals just as the party did in 2015.

Overall, the Liberals are leading or are elected in 24 ridings, the Conservatives in six, and the New Democrats in one.

9:30 p.m. ET — Polls close in Ontario, Quebec, Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba.

9:22 p.m. ET — Jenica Atwin wins Fredericton for Green Party, first MP in New Brunswick for the party.

Federal leaders converge on Vancouver as election campagin draws to a close

9:13 p.m. ET — Early results have the Liberals leading in 25 of Atlantic Canada’s 32 ridings, the Conservatives in five, the NDP in one and, in something of a surprise, the Greens in one: Fredericton.

However, only a handful of polls are reporting in some ridings and some of the races are extremely tight.

The Liberals had never expected to repeat their 2015 sweep of Atlantic Canada. But they can’t afford to sustain many losses and hold onto power.

The Liberals are ahead in six of the seven ridings in Newfoundland and Labrador, where polls closed half an hour before they did in the rest of the region. In the seventh, St. John’s East, former New Democrat MP Jack Harris is convincingly ahead of Liberal Nick Whalen.

The Liberals are also leading in all four of P.E.I.’s ridings.

In New Brunswick, the Liberals are ahead in five ridings, the Tories in four, while Green candidate Jenica Atwin is leading in Fredericton.

In Nova Scotia, the Liberals are leading in 10 to the Conservatives’ one.

8:57 p.m. ET — The new political makeup of Atlantic Canada is coming into sharper focus: dominated by Liberals, but not as completely as it was after the 2015 election.

The Canadian Press projects Liberal Darrell Samson has won re-election in the Nova Scotia riding of Sackville-Preston-Chezzetcook, cabinet minister Bernadette Jordan will represent South Shore-St. Margarets again, and Darren Fisher has been re-elected in Dartmouth-Cole Harbour.

The Liberal party has also held on to nearby Kings-Hants, with Kody Blois winning the seat vacated by former cabinet minister Scott Brison, and Cape Breton-Canso, which Mike Kelloway will represent after longtime MP Rodger Cuzner opted to retire.

The Conservatives have also captured another seat, with Chris d’Entremont elected in West Nova.

On the other side of the country, NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh appeared happy and upbeat while watching results with supporters and his wife, Gurkiran Kaur, in a Burnaby, B.C., hotel room.

Meanwhile in Montreal, journalists and camera operators rimmed the event space at the convention centre in the city’s old quarter, perched on risers under Liberal-red lights.

A pair of jumbo screens flashed photos — each one speckled with animated stars — of Trudeau on the campaign trail taking selfies with supporters, attending a Yom Kippur ceremony and consulting backstage with his wife Sophie Gregoire Trudeau.

8:48 p.m. ET — Sean Fraser wins Central Nova seat for Liberals.

8:40 p.m. ET — In Newfoundland, the Liberals won six of the province’s seven seats, but the NDP broke the Liberal grip on the region after Jack Harris regained his seat by winning St. John’s East.

8:33 p.m. ET — The Conservatives have their first projected win, in New Brunswick’s Tobique-Mactaquac, where Richard Bragdon is on pace to win. John Williamson (Conservatives) also elected in New Brunswick Southwest.

8:24 p.m. ET — Lawrence MacAulay (Liberal) re-elected in Cardigan riding.

8:13 p.m. ET — The electoral map in Atlantic Canada is seeing a swath of Liberal red over most of Newfoundland and Labrador.

Long-time Liberal Lawrence MacAulay appears set to hold his riding of Cardigan, as Liberals lead in all four seats on Prince Edward Island.

Liberal candidates are leading in most of New Brunswick and Nova Scotia.

Overall, with many votes still to be counted in the region, Liberals are elected or leading in 24 ridings, Conservatives have five and the NDP have the one seat.

8:13 p.m. ET — Jack Harris, former MP and leader of provincial party, trying to recapture riding after upset in 2015, won St. John’s East for NDP.

8:10 p.m. ET — Seamus O’Regan, Indigenous services minister, elected in St. John’s South-Mount Pearl for the Liberals.

8 p.m. ET — Liberals have won five of the seats called so far in Atlantic Canada.

7:43 p.m. ET — Liberals have won two seats so far on the East Coast.

7:30 p.m. ET — Polls close in the rest of the Atlantic — P.E.I., Nova Scotia and New Brunswick.

Early results had the Liberals leading in six of the seven ridings in Newfoundland and Labrador, where polls closed half an hour before they did in the rest of the region. The seventh — St. John’s East, thought to be the seat in the province where the Liberal incumbent was most vulnerable — had not yet reported any results.

In 2015, the Liberals swept all 32 seats in Atlantic Canada, a feat they’re not expected to repeat.

7 p.m. ET — The polls have closed in Newfoundland and Labrador, signalling the start of what promises to be a long night to determine whether Justin Trudeau’s Liberals will get a second chance to govern Canada.

Polls have suggested that the Liberals and Andrew Scheer’s Conservatives finished the 40-day campaign in a dead heat, with neither in position to win a majority of seats in the House of Commons.

However, the Liberals appeared to have an edge over the Conservatives in Ontario and Quebec, which account for almost 60 per cent of the 338 seats up for grabs.

Still, an unexpected surge in support for the Bloc Quebecois upended the hopes of both the front-running parties for gains in Quebec.

And a bounce for the NDP after Jagmeet Singh’s performance in the leaders’ debates ate into Liberal support in Ontario and British Columbia.

The Green Party, which had hoped for a big breakthrough in this election, appeared to stall mid-campaign but is in a battle with the NDP in B.C.

4:40 p.m. ET — Elections Canada said it received reports of robocalls indicating that election day is on a date other than Oct. 21. The calls were received in Quebec, New Brunswick and Nova Scotia.

Elections Canada said there is no indication that the calls are widespread.

“It is illegal to wilfully misdirect electors in order to prevent them from voting,” Elections Canada said in a statement.

3:30 p.m. ET — The Liberals were flagging concerns about some candidates from the other parties continuing to run advertisements on Facebook on Monday despite a blackout on paid social-media or search-engine ads on election day.

Elections Canada “doesn’t evaluate incidents in real time,” said spokeswoman Natasha Gauthier, adding complaints about potential ads running during the blackout period should go to the Office of Commissioner of Canada Elections, whose mandate is to investigate and enforce the rules.

“As with any general election, we have been receiving complaints about election advertising as well as advertising during the blackout period,” Myriam Crousette, spokeswoman for the Office of the Commissioner of Canada Elections, said in an email.

“However, the Office of the Commissioner does not confirm or deny whether we are in the process of conducting an investigation. This is in keeping with the confidentiality provisions of the Canada Elections Act.”

The Conservatives, NDP and Greens did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

12 p.m. ET — Power was out at a polling station at Bruce Public School in the riding of Toronto-Danforth for about three hours Monday morning, forcing hundreds of people to vote in semi-darkness.

An election official at the school, who declined to give her full name because she wasn’t authorized to speak to media, said the training staff received from Elections Canada didn’t cover blackouts so they had to improvise.

Officials collected flashlights and stuck electronic lights in the voting booths, and local residents brought by lanterns.

BACKGROUND — Elections Canada says roughly 27.4 million people are eligible to vote, and while most voters will cast their ballots Monday, around 4.7 million took advantage of advance polling last weekend. That marked a 29 per cent increase over 2015.

Voter turnout in the last election stood at 68.5 per cent, which was the highest since 1993.