Montenegro Population Statistics and Voting Lists Inconsistency

As of August 1, 2016 the total population of Montenegro (Table 1) equals to 622.813 persons (column 3), of which n=53.124 are preschool children (4), n=98.351 are school pupils (5), the children who do not attend school are n=5.364 (6). Consequently, the number of citizens over the age of 18 years who are entitled to vote equals 465.974 persons. (8).

The problem, however, is that the voting list prepared by the Ministry of Internal Affairs, shows the number of citizens entitled to vote and registered on the voting lists as 529.993 persons, as of August 2016 (9). This number – by 64.019 persons (10) goes over the country’s officially registered population number.

Table 1: Total population of Montenegro as at August 1, 2016

The analysis of the number of citizens in the voting age bracket (18+), and the number of people holding Montenegrin citizenship and the respective right to vote (Table 2), returns even more curious results.

Out of 465.974 citizens of voting age (column 3), 3.873 have a dual citizenship (4), and 23.946 persons are citizens of another country (i.e. no right to vote).

As a result, the number of Montenegrin citizens of voting age (18+) amounts to 438.191 persons (7), while the difference in number of voters entered on the electoral registers amounts to 91.802 persons. (9).

Table 2: Comparative summary of country’s total population and the voters’ numbers

The comparative summary of the country’s total population and the voters’ number (Table 3) shows that the maximum growth of the total population (column 3) from 1990 to 2016 equals to 10,848 persons (average of 434 persons per annum), and the increase in the voters’ number for the same period (4) equals 127,132 persons (average of 5,085 persons per annum).

Table 3: Crna Gora / Montenegro

Comparative analysis of the population growth rates and the increase in the number of voters in the communities shows that, in some of them, the ratio of these indicators results in absurd figures, as shown below:

– In Bijelo Polje (Table 4) population (column 3) is n=44.292 persons, voters (4) are n=40.672 persons, and the difference (5) equals n=3.620 persons.

– In Rožaje (Table 5) population (4) is n=23.170 persons, voters (4) are n=21.893 persons, and the difference (5) equals n=1.277 persons.

– In Ulcinj (Table 6) population (4) is n=20.063 persons, voters (5) are n=19.760 persons, and the difference (5) equals to n=303 persons.

As seen from the tables, the number of voters in the vote lists in the communities of Bijelo Polje, Rožaje and Ulcinj, almost equals the total population number. However, in the Plav unit (Table 7) the voters’ number is by thousand (n=1.000) persons higher than the total number of inhabitants of that community (i.e. population n=12.741 persons, voters n=13.741 persons).

The analysis of the statistical data presented here does not draw any political conclusions. The purpose is to make simple arithmetic calculations and draw attention to the fact that in the recent years there has been an outpacing growth in the number of voters in relation to the growth of the total population.

Analysts also note that the significant difference in population growth numbers and number of voters may be interpreted as the falsification of the vote-eligible citizens’ lists in order to use those “extra” votes for the electoral outcome manipulation.

It is noteworthy that these inflated figures started to rise significantly after the 2006 referendum. This is probably linked to the fact that the popularity of the governing party at the time had already began to decline, creating a need for additional votes to ensure electoral victory.

Moreover, given the exact percentages of the tabular data, the percentage of the ratio of voter number and overall population growth is much higher than the average admissible statistical bias rates.

The data shown in Tables 4-7 give rise to reasonable doubt with regard to the validity of the voters’ lists, and in the case of the community of Plav they require verification not only by the the National Electoral Commission, but also by investigating authorities, both national and international.