Geostrategic Media Political Commentary, Analysis, Security, Defense
Contrary to the Israeli narrative, Palestinians are pragmatic, willing to make concessions, and supportive of a two-state solution — and this includes Palestinians in both the West Bank and the Gaza Strip. This is the central finding of a new Arab Barometer survey published in Foreign Affairs, conducted in partnership with the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research in Ramallah.
The starting point for this analysis is President Donald Trump’s September 2025 plan, which promised not only to rebuild the devastated Gaza Strip but also to deliver “lasting peace in the Middle East.” A year later, that plan has stalled. Hamas has not been disarmed. Israel still controls more than 60 percent of the Strip. The promised technocratic government and international security force have not materialized. Large-scale reconstruction has barely begun. And most Gazans still struggle to obtain food, water, and shelter.
As Israel’s October elections approach, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has hardened his position, refusing the US-backed disarmament agreement. Despite the Board of Peace — the 25-nation body Trump created to implement his plan — announcing a more detailed reconstruction program this week, senior Israeli officials told The Times of Israel and other outlets that the board has stopped pressuring Netanyahu to comply because of the upcoming elections.
This hardline position enjoys the support of a majority of Israelis, who do not believe Palestinians are interested in negotiations or diplomacy. Poll after poll has shown that Israelis overwhelmingly believe Palestinians do not want peace at all — and that Israel therefore has no real partner to negotiate with.
This perception, the researchers argue, fundamentally distorts what most Palestinians actually believe and what they are prepared to accept.
Two Decades of Palestinian Public Opinion
The Arab Barometer has conducted comprehensive public opinion surveys across the West Bank and Gaza for two decades. Its most recent large-scale survey, conducted in October 2025, found that a majority of Palestinians see diplomatic negotiations — not armed resistance — as the best path to a final resolution of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Conditions on the ground have not changed enough to fundamentally alter these findings, which are reinforced by questions posed in August by the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research in Ramallah, a partner of the Arab Barometer.
Palestinians, the researchers say, have a clear and realistic vision for the future. Far more of them support a two-state solution than any other potential outcome.
Despite bearing the brunt of destruction over the past three years, Gazans tend to be the most pragmatic: a larger share of them are open to a two-state solution than Palestinians in the West Bank, and half of Gaza’s residents support Arab states normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel — provided the process includes tangible progress toward Palestinian self-determination.
Trust in both Hamas and the Palestinian Authority has eroded significantly. Palestinians see neither faction as having guaranteed their security or improved their lives, and they want political renewal. Strikingly, most Gazans express a desire to stay and help rebuild their devastated homeland rather than emigrate.
A Dark Reality, But a Glimmer of Hope
The current situation in Gaza is bleak, and conditions for Palestinians in the West Bank are deteriorating rapidly. The status quo is unsustainable, even though there is no clear end to the conflict in sight. Yet Palestinian opinions themselves offer a glimmer of hope.
Israelis have an opportunity to choose a new government more committed to negotiation. If such a government, in cooperation with international donors, pursues a political transition that makes the establishment of a Palestinian state a central focus of negotiations — and recognizes Gazans’ desire for security and legitimate governance — then Gazans are prepared to make concessions, as are many Palestinians in the West Bank. They are ready to work for a new political order. But it must genuinely be new.
The Survey Data: A Humanitarian Catastrophe
The Arab Barometer survey conducted last October revealed the depth of the crisis in both Gaza and the West Bank — a security, economic, and humanitarian crisis that has seen no tangible improvement since. The survey included 855 people in Gaza, interviewed face-to-face in their homes, shelters, or camps, and 800 people in the West Bank, interviewed face-to-face in their homes.
The survey began on the same day the official ceasefire in Gaza was announced, providing a comprehensive picture of the conditions facing reconstruction. Given the timing, some questions asked in the West Bank and other Middle Eastern countries — on domestic politics and social relations — were not posed in Gaza, to make room for questions highlighting the urgent needs of Gaza’s residents.
No comparable survey has been conducted since the 2025 Arab Barometer to track the humanitarian situation in Gaza. Given the limited aid permitted into Gaza and the Board of Peace’s failure to make tangible progress after the first phase of the ceasefire, the scale of the challenge remains largely unchanged.
Displacement and Deprivation
Eighty-five percent of Gazans reported being displaced at least once since early October 2023. Among the displaced, 70 percent had been displaced three times or more. Sixty-one percent of Gazans said a family member had lost their job as a result of the war. Fewer than half said they had eaten food daily during the past week. Just over a fifth suffered from a lack of food most or all days of the week.
Education has been severely affected: among households with school-age children, 31 percent said none of their children were currently receiving an education. Other basic services remain limited. Only 9 percent of Gazans have access to electricity, and 6 percent to fuel or cooking gas — crises that continue.
The West Bank: Deteriorating Security and Economy
West Bank residents have greater access to basic services but reported a rapid deterioration in security. Only 58 percent of Palestinians in the West Bank described their neighborhoods as safe — a drop of 16 percentage points from the October 2023 survey. Two-thirds of respondents rated the security situation provided by the Palestinian Authority as “bad” or “very bad,” while 24 percent had considered emigrating. When those wishing to leave the West Bank were asked why, in their own words, 38 percent cited security reasons, 37 percent political reasons, and 71 percent economic reasons. This contrasts with most other countries covered by Arab Barometer surveys, where those wishing to emigrate rarely cite major non-economic motivations.
The economic crisis in the West Bank is worsening. Ninety-two percent of respondents described the economic situation in the area as “bad” or “very bad” — an increase of 21 percentage points from two years earlier. Hunger is also a major problem. Fifty-one percent of Palestinians in the West Bank acknowledged that the statement “the food we bought didn’t last, and we didn’t have money to buy more” was often or sometimes true over the past 30 days. Forty-one percent acknowledged they “had to skip a meal” because of a lack of money or resources over the past twelve months.
Gazans Refuse to Leave
Yet Gazans, in particular, have not succumbed to despair. A majority of Gazans told the Arab Barometer founders that they and their families would not leave Gaza now if given the opportunity.
Some might also assume, given the scale of destruction in Gaza and settler violence in the West Bank, that support for a negotiated settlement to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict has declined. But this was not the case.
Support for a Two-State Solution Is Rising
When West Bank respondents were asked which solution they preferred to end the Israeli-Palestinian conflict — a two-state solution, one state, a confederation, or “another solution” — 56 percent chose a two-state solution, an increase of seven points from the 2023 Arab Barometer survey. Over two years of devastating conflict, support for a two-state solution rose even more in Gaza, from 54 percent in early October 2023 to 64 percent in October 2025. In the same period, support for a confederation rose ten points in Gaza, to 20 percent, while support for a one-state solution fell four points to 5 percent. Support for “another solution” — an option often reflecting a preference for armed resistance — fell from 20 percent to 7 percent in Gaza. Notably, the rise in support for a two-state solution was particularly pronounced among young Palestinians.
Gazans Show Pragmatism on Normalization
Gazans display particular pragmatism. In the October 2025 Arab Barometer survey, when respondents in both parts of the occupied Palestinian territories were asked whether they supported Arab states normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel, only 11 percent answered yes. But the share of supporters of this scenario in Gaza was much higher than in the West Bank — around a fifth of the population. One of the main reasons Palestinians oppose normalization is the possibility that it will proceed without achieving Palestinian independence. When independence is added, support for the concept increases significantly.
Palestinians Feel Abandoned by Their Leaders
Palestinians also firmly believe their current leaders have failed them. For decades, Palestinian politics has revolved around two main factions: Fatah, the party that controls the Palestinian Authority, and Hamas. Palestinians simply do not want to be led by either Hamas or Fatah. Nor would the Palestinian Authority’s return to Gaza, even after a reform process, produce legitimate governance.
Any proposal based on large numbers of Gazans leaving the Strip before reconstruction begins — such as the September 2026 plan unveiled by Israeli National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir — would be misguided. Gazans want to stay, develop their homeland on their own terms, and live alongside the state of Israel. More broadly, polls show that even as Palestinians withdraw from their two main political factions, they have not lost interest in politics or its outcomes. They have a clear vision and are prepared for a settlement. But despite their exhaustion, they will not accept any outcome that merely ends the fighting while leaving their future suspended.
Gaza and the West Bank Cannot Be Separated
The future of Gaza cannot be separated from the future of the West Bank. Stabilizing the Strip would be a major challenge in itself, and it becomes even harder as settlements expand and settler violence grows in the West Bank. Palestinians are clear that any near-term solution must include a credible path toward an independent state. The establishment of a Palestinian state should not be treated as a potential reward at the end of a long and uncertain journey. Palestinians are more prepared to respect Israel’s role in the region — as reflected in its normalization of relations with other Arab states — when they too are granted the right to self-determination. The question of a Palestinian state cannot be deferred to the end of the peace process; its credibility must be assured to ensure Palestinian participation in political renewal.
The Biggest Obstacle Remains Israel
The biggest obstacle to reaching a compromise now comes from Israel — and not only from the right wing of the country’s political spectrum.
