A Disordered World

Dr. Nosherwan Adil

There is consensus amongst the academicians that US President Donald Trump is shaking up the world order through his unilateral and disruptive policies. From launching attacks in the Western Hemisphere and beyond to upending the global economic system through trade wars and protectionist policies, he has already shown contempt for the state sovereignty of other states and international law. For someone like President Trump, who vowed to end wars and not start new ones, his aggressive actions and rhetoric suggest the contrary.

President Trump’s “America First” policy is often described as “riding roughshod over others” as it prioritizes American interests above all by prioritizing bilateral trade deals, aggressively challenging global norms, disrupting bilateral and multilateral alliances, and using unilateral power, such as in Venezuela, Greenland, and Iran, if it means disregarding traditional diplomacy and alienating allies for perceived national gains. President Trump’s deputy chief of staff Stephen Miller aptly described the Trumpian worldview when he poured extreme contempt and disdain on the “rule-based system” and declared, “We live in a world, in the real world, that is governed by strength, that is governed by force, which is governed by power.”

What kind of world order is emerging from this? Undoubtedly, President Trump is already acting in an environment that can be characterized by several elements, such as fragmenting global order and increasing disregard for international norms by both regional and international powers. The use of Kinetic means by countries has become so frequent in pursuit of a “might is right” approach. President Trump is further sharpening these trends and eventually pushing the world into a Hobbesian state of lawlessness, characterized by perpetual fear and conflict, making life poor, solitary, and brutish.

Today’s world is increasingly becoming one ruled by impunity. UN Secretary General António Guterres, in his speech in the UNGA, said that the world has entered “the age of impunity.” He stated the case studies of the Israeli aggression and human rights violations in Gaza but was also referring to the growing number of countries opting for kinetic means. “They can invade another country, lay waste to whole societies,” and “thumb their nose at international law,” he said, pointing to the fact that this “age of impunity” is everywhere. António Guterres was, of course, right. The age of impunity is reflected in the US abduction of Venezuelan elected President Nicolás Maduro, the bombing of Iran, increasing human rights violations in Palestine, and the Russian invasion of Ukraine. None of these powers thought their actions entailed much cost, and they faced no international accountability.

The multilateral institutions and multilateralism have been under stress for over a decade now. But the resurgence of right-wing populism has further accelerated this trend of “no world order.” The UN’s failure to address the growing challenges questions its effectiveness, as this organization has been limited to the role of bystander in wars and crises, unable to perform its core responsibility, albeit due to big power politics and clashing interests. Eventually, the result is the state’s loss of faith in multilateralism, with trust in global institutions at a record low. The recent withdrawal by the US from 66 international organizations, including 31 UN entities, is another setback for the multilateral system and will further weaken it.

The world has now surely entered a new great game where countries have started tussling for resources. The competition over rare earth minerals has already been witnessed between the US and China, which is considered essential for defense industries and semiconductors. Against this backdrop, the US under Trump is trying to catch up with China, which has built a virtual monopoly, having made strategic investments in these sectors over decades, including in Africa. Moreover, China already has a monopoly in the extraction and processing of rare earth minerals, which are used in electric cars, electronics, and military weapons, including the manufacturing of fighter jets. Last year, China also used its leverage in the rare earth elements global supply chain to push back against US tariffs. Beijing imposed restrictions on exports of rare earth minerals, which forced Washington, faced with an industrial shutdown, to back off and lower tariffs.

President Trump’s administration has started reducing its dependence on China by developing alternative sources of supply. In this context, the US is hosting G-7 ministers meeting next week and already struck a deal with the Democratic Republic of Congo, which sought US mediation for a peace accord with Rwanda. Washington also signed a mineral resources agreement for joint investment with Ukraine. The resource competition, stated above, is not limited to rare earth minerals but also includes oil. It is a throwback to the past when colonial powers competed for resources and occupied countries to pillage their resources. What some analysts have called America’s “resource imperialism” has familiar echoes of the past.

The Middle East continues to be a region of volatility and conflict, which is detrimental to long-term peace, solidarity, and security. Beyond Israel’s genocidal war on Gaza, which has temporarily paused under Trump’s peace plan, the region is witnessing a high-stakes contest for regional dominance. Recently, the rivalry between Saudi Arabia and the UAE erupted over Yemen. The two countries back different sides in Sudan and have divergent interests in Libya and Syria. UAE’s close ties with Israel add another dimension to the geopolitical competition. The US shift in policy priority to China and disengagement from the Middle East over the years created a power vacuum that Gulf States are trying to fill in their contest for influence.

To conclude, with geo-economic confrontations and geopolitical tensions intensifying across the globe, the world is heading towards a disordered world. It challenges countries to navigate a rule-less terrain in an environment of great uncertainty and volatility.

About the author:

Dr. Nosherwan Adil is Assistant Professor of International Relations (IR), Faculty of Social Sciences, Shaheed Zulfikar Ali Bhutto Institute of Science and Technology, Islamabad.