Geostrategic Media Political Commentary, Analysis, Security, Defense
Japan has begun a rare and technologically ambitious effort to secure its own supply of rare earth minerals, as concerns mount over China’s tightening control of exports. A Japanese mining vessel set sail on Monday to explore rare-earth-rich seabed mud near Minamitori Island, a remote coral atoll about 1,900 km southeast of Tokyo. The move underscores Tokyo’s urgency to reduce reliance on China for critical minerals essential to cars, smartphones and military equipment.
The month-long mission involves the government-backed test vessel Chikyu, which will attempt for the first time anywhere in the world to continuously lift rare-earth-bearing mud from a depth of 6 km to a ship. Officials say the project reflects years of preparation and growing anxiety over supply vulnerabilities amid worsening diplomatic friction with Beijing.
Strategic Push to Diversify Supplies
Japan’s drive to diversify rare earth sourcing has intensified as China tightens export controls. Last week, Beijing banned exports of certain dual-use items to Japan’s military, including some critical minerals, and reports have suggested broader restrictions on rare earth exports, though China has not officially confirmed this. Tokyo has condemned the dual-use ban while stopping short of commenting on the wider reports.
The issue has gained international traction, with rare-earth supply chains set to be discussed by G7 finance ministers in Washington. Japan’s vulnerability is well known: in 2010, China curtailed rare earth exports during a diplomatic dispute over contested East China Sea islands, exposing Tokyo’s heavy dependence and prompting a long-term diversification strategy.
Since then, Japan has reduced its reliance on China for rare earths to about 60% from 90% through overseas investments, recycling initiatives and manufacturing processes that use fewer of the minerals. The Minamitori Island project, however, marks the first attempt to source rare earths domestically.
Technological and Economic Challenges
Recovering rare earths from the deep seabed represents a major technological leap. Project leaders say success would be significant not only for supply security but also for demonstrating advanced deep-sea mining capabilities. The government has already invested about 40 billion yen since 2018, though estimates of reserves and production targets remain undisclosed.
Despite the promise, analysts caution that reducing reliance on China will not be easy. For certain heavy rare earths used in electric and hybrid vehicle motors, Japan remains almost entirely dependent on Chinese supplies. High extraction costs have historically made seabed mining uneconomical, and commercial viability may depend on sustained supply disruptions and higher global prices.
Long-Term Strategic Gamble
The project is explicitly long term. If the current tests succeed, a full-scale mining trial is planned for 2027. In the meantime, Japan continues to rely on stockpiles built since 2010 and on diversification efforts abroad. Industry executives say they are better prepared than in the past, but government officials warn that businesses tend to lose focus once immediate crises fade.
China, meanwhile, is closely watching Japan’s activities. During survey work near Minamitori Island last year, Chinese naval vessels sailed nearby, an episode Japanese officials described as intimidating. Beijing said its actions complied with international law and accused Japan of exaggerating threats.
Personal Analysis
Japan’s deep-sea rare earth mission highlights how economic security has become inseparable from national security. The project is less about immediate supply relief and more about strategic signalling: Tokyo is demonstrating that it is willing to invest heavily in costly, long-horizon solutions to escape China’s leverage.
Yet the challenges are formidable. Technological success does not guarantee economic viability, and even partial independence from China could take years, if not decades. In the short term, Japan remains exposed, particularly in sectors like electric vehicles that are central to its industrial base. Still, by pushing forward with domestic extraction, Japan is betting that resilience and strategic autonomy are worth the cost, even if the payoff is uncertain and distant.
