Geostrategic Media Political Commentary, Analysis, Security, Defense
Rahul Pandey
June 1, Operation Spider’s Web can be considered a watershed moment in the Russia–Ukraine war but cannot be understood as a watershed alone without comparing it with other recent events such as Israel’s Pager attacks against Hezbollah in Lebanon and Syria in September 2024. The question is, what can we learn from these events? How will traditional militaries prevail over these new technological weapons?
However, it is an established fact that new weapons used during the war can shift the balance of powerduring warfare; however, nothing has changed much in these wars. During the Second World War, Germany introduced the V-2 rockets. Germany lost badly in the Second World War. Israel is still struggling to fight against the terrorism of Hamas and Hezbollah, and Russia is still in better shape since not much has changed with the drone attacks on the Russian side.
However, technological innovation and its first use can change the dynamics of warfare. To prevent further attacks, new military technologies have come and will come to change the balance of power. It is imperative to delve deeper into these comparable military events to prevent future national security challenges for any nation. Notably, all these technologies were used as part of hybrid warfare, where the conventional military fights a war on the battlefield and professional technical engineering is used to attack long-distance units of adversaries.
These two comparable technological innovations—Israel’s weaponized pagers and Ukraine’s FPV drones—represent critical moments in modern military history, both reshaping warfare dynamics and balancing power through newly programmed technological applications. By examining their technological underpinnings, their impact on modern warfare, and the lessons they offer, we can understand how such innovations drive strategic shifts during warfare.
Moreover, three other variables also dominated and supported these events: highly informed intelligence gathering, low-cost cyber- and drone attacks, and information warfare. Other elements, such as precision, asymmetry, and psychological impact over adversary camps, must also be noted.
Israel’s pager attack targeted everyday communication devices. This attack involved tampering with devices remotely to embed explosive charges. Deep Israeli intelligence infiltration of Hezbollah’s supply chain, likely collaborating with Taiwanese manufacturers to modify devices before distribution. Hezbollah fighters used booby traps and AR924 pagers. More than 10 died, and approximately 3000 were injured in this attack. The attack aimed to disrupt Hezbollah’s command structure and sow distrust in their communication networks by weaponizing a ubiquitous tool.
By targeting operatives in Hezbollah strongholds, Israel demonstrated cyber espionage and kinetic warfare. Despite its low cost, the attack resulted in significant casualties. This shift in modern warfare toward asymmetrical tactics has forced military leaders to rework their military warfare tactics since large militaries, high-end weapons, and the most sophisticated communication technologies can be used as weapons by sitting in front of a computer screen. Ukraine’s attack in the depths of Russian territory is a recent example of how computer screens can be used for this purpose.
Ukraine’s Operation Spider’s Web, which used domestically produced FPV drones, indicated the transformative potential of low-cost, autonomous technology in modern warfare. After 18 months of thorough planning, the SBU smuggled 117 drones disguised as modular homes in Russia. It was launched remotely, and these drones struck five air bases (Amur, Belaya, Dyagilevo, Olenya, and Ivanovo), targeting high-value assets such as strategic bombers and surveillance planes. The strike, which took place 4000 kilometers deep into the Russian territory, caused significant damage to 41 aircraft, including rare A-50 spy planes; Tu-95, Tu-22M3, and Tu-160 bombers; and An-12 and Il-78 transport aircraft. The damage resulted in an estimated cost of over $7 billion, as confirmed by the SBU, whereas United States sources confirmed that at least 20 aircraft were hit.
The operation exploited Russia’s overstretched air defenses and exposed vulnerabilities in a nuclear-armed state’s hinterland. Unlike traditional airstrikes, FPV drones provide a scalable, cost-effective means to project power deep into enemy territories without risking personnel. This innovation redefined asymmetrical warfare, enabling smaller nations to challenge larger adversaries with affordable, precise, and deniable technologies. The absence of human casualties underscores a shift toward material-focused strikes, minimizing ethical fallout while maximizing strategic impact.
These innovations have transformed warfare by prioritizing precision, asymmetry, and psychological impact over traditional brute force. Israel’s pager attack and Ukraine’s drone operation leveraged precision and low-cost attacks, reflecting a shift toward targeted, intelligence-driven warfare. The pagers disrupted Hezbollah’s operational cohesion, whereas Ukraine’s drones crippled Russia’s strategic air capabilities (however, they were old strategic bombers).
These modern military tactics prioritize disruption over destruction, exploiting vulnerabilities in command structures or critical infrastructure. This evolution reduces reliance on large armies or expensive hardware, enabling nonstate actors or smaller nations to challenge superpowers, as seen in Ukraine’s ability to strike 4000 kilometers deep into Russia.
The psychological dimension of these innovations is a critical factor in their impact. Israel’s pager attack instilled fear and paranoia within Hezbollah, as operatives could no longer trust basic communication tools, disrupting their operational tempo. Ukraine’s drone strikes humiliated Russia since it has great military and intelligence power, exposing the fragility of its air defenses and prompting a costly relocation of its bomber fleet.
These operations demonstrate that modern warfare increasingly targets the enemy’s psyche, whether through distrust, embarrassment, or fear, rather than solely through physical destruction. This shift amplifies the strategic value of technology, where a single, well-executed operation can force adversaries to overhaul their security protocols, diverting resources from the battlefield.
Now, the lessons for militaries worldwide from these events can be as follows: First, they learn to accept the democratization of technologies. Unlike traditional high-cost large-tent weapons and mass military personnel, which have empowered great militaries for centuries, they can now change with little investment in new modern technologies. It can also empower smaller actors to compete with larger great militaries. If accessible to nonstate actors and local militias, it can provide a level playing field and increase the risk of proliferation.
Second, weaponization of civilian infrastructure or dual-use of civilian common places, as seen in Israel’s pages, highlights the need for robust supply chain security. Nations must protect everyday technologies from repurposing as weapons. Mobile phones, laptops, cars, watches, televisions, or any other electronic devices can be hacked and weaponized. To prevent these catastrophic events, both civilian and military leaders prepare to prevent apocalyptic events.
Third, these operations highlight adaptability. Israel and Ukraine’s operations were agile, relying on commercially available technologies repurposed for military use. Future warfare will favor nations that can rapidly innovate, integrating off-the-shelf technologies such as AI, drones, or IoT devices into their arsenals. Governments and militaries should prioritize R&D in dual-use technologies while fostering public‒private partnerships to stay ahead of adversaries.
Fourth, strategically, these operations underscore the value of surprise and deception. Israel’s covert tampering and Ukraine’s smuggled drones relied on catching adversaries unprepared.
Future conflicts are likely to prioritize intelligence and covert operations, requiring nations to invest in counterintelligence and cybersecurity. The global community can learn from the resilience of targeted populations, such as Hezbollah shifting to alternative communications and Russia relocating its air assets.
In summary, Israel’s pager attack and Ukraine’s Operation Spider’s Web illustrate the transformative power of technological innovation in warfare. These advancements have shifted warfare toward asymmetry, precision, and psychological impact, from long-range missiles to modern drones and cyber-physical weapons. They teach the world to prioritize adaptability, secure civilian infrastructure, and invest in intelligence and counterintelligence.
