Geostrategic Media Political Commentary, Analysis, Security, Defense
Dayon Lee
South Korea’s new president, Lee Jae-myung, has prioritized de-escalation with North Korea, creating a diplomatic window for renewed Trump-Kim talks amid global instability and stalled US efforts elsewhere.
During his inaugural ball on January 20, 2025, President Trump was on a video call with US troops stationed at Camp Humphreys, a US military base in South Korea. While chatting, he suddenly asked, “How’s Kim Jung Un doing? You would say that although I developed a pretty good relationship with him, he’s a tough cookie.”
As he did during the presidential campaign, he continued to show his closeness, indicating the resumption of talks with Kim.
Will There Be Another Trump-Kim Jong-un Summit?
Even if Trump seeks to meet Kim immediately, he now faces a different security environment than he did during his first term. In 2018, South Korea played a pivotal role in the first historic summit between the US and North Korea, facilitating a swift detente between the two Koreas and serving as a mediator. Over the last three years, under President Yoon Seok-yeol, inter-Korean relations became worse than ever before, raising concerns among Korean experts about the outbreak of war.
On June 3, Lee Jae-myung of the Democratic Party (DP) became the new president of South Korea following the Constitutional Court’s unanimous decision on the removal of President Yoon for his illegal and unconstitutional declaration of martial law. With a mandate to stabilize domestic turmoil, Lee’s presidency will reduce Seoul’s proliferation risks and ease tensions on the Korean Peninsula, thereby building a strategic environment for Trump to focus on negotiations with Kim Jong-un.
President Lee Has Many Foreign Policy Issues to Address
Despite Trump’s early signaling about the resumption of dialogue, North Korea has been sidelined since then due to other pressing international issues, including the Ukraine-Russia war, the Iran nuclear talks, and the Israel-Hamas conflict.
Among them, Trump had promised during his campaign to end the war in Ukraine within 24 hours after being elected, but no progress has been made due to the discord between Ukraine and Russia over a ceasefire. The Israel-Hamas conflict also persists without imminent resolution while the US was engaged in nuclear talks with Iran, Israel attacked Iran on June 13.
In response, Iran launched drones and ballistic missiles, further increasing uncertainty around the nuclear deal.
None of these conflicts is close to resolution anytime soon, but instead, they are becoming increasingly complex.
North and South Korean Relations Are Very Fragile Now
Tensions on the Korean Peninsula have increased significantly over the last three years. All diplomatic channels between the two Koreas have been cut off. For instance, none of the hotlines are functioning between them.
Notably, in early 2023, Kim referred to South Korea as “a principal enemy” and abandoned the idea of reunification, demolishing related symbols. North Korea even demolished roads and railroadsconnecting the two Koreas and built border walls in the Demilitarized Zone.
Under these circumstances, it was doubtful that the US-North Korea talks could begin. Even if they do, uncertainty in inter-Korean relations will be a significant obstacle rather than a catalyst for its persistence.
To manage North Korea’s growing nuclear threats, then-presidential candidate Lee Jae-myung acknowledged the importance of US extended deterrence against North Korea and has underscored risk reduction and diplomacy to deal with North Korea. On May 25, during his presidential campaign, Lee pledged to restore communication channels with North Korea, achieve a mutual suspension of provocative actions, and manage risks for coexistence on the Korean Peninsula.
He has already detailed some risk reduction measures by restoring the Comprehensive Military Agreement (CMA), which had been completely suspended last year despite its contributions to the security of the Korean Peninsula, along with halting loudspeaker broadcasts and propaganda balloon launches across the border areas. Lee also welcomed President Trump’s willingness to engage in talks with Kim Jung-un.
After taking office, President Lee proactively carried out risk reduction measures he had pledged. Five days after his inauguration, on June 9, the Unification Ministry called for the suspension of propaganda balloon launches by civic groups to prevent security escalation, because they threatened border area residents’ safety. During a meeting with the residents on June 13, Lee instructed officials to review whether individuals can be arrested on the spot for inflating balloons with high-pressure helium gas, as it constitutes a violation of the High-Pressure Gas Safety Control Act.
Over the past year, residents in the border area have suffered mental health impacts and losses in tourism and livestock due to North Korea’s loudspeaker broadcasts. On June 11, following President Lee’s instruction, the South Korean military halted its loudspeaker broadcasts. The following day, North Korea responded with a reciprocal measure, ceasing its broadcasts.
Further reducing tensions, the Defense Ministry recently presented a plan to restore the CMA in a report to the National Planning Committee, a presidential advisory body responsible for setting national policy direction in the absence of the Presidential Transition Committee.
What Is President Lee’s Policy on South Korean Nuclearization?
Under the Lee Presidency, Seoul’s advocacy for nuclear weaponization, which North Korea could exploit to legitimize its nuclear arsenal and its development, will diminish.
In the last three years, the Yoon Seok-yeol administration and his party, the People’s Power Party (PPP), have been the center of supporting nuclear options. Meanwhile, Lee Jae-myung and his party, the Democratic Party (DP), have adhered to the principle of denuclearization on the Korean Peninsula, as enshrined in their party platform.
In 2022, then-DP leader Lee Jae-myung opposed the possibility of redeploying US tactical nuclear weapons, along with DP lawmakers. He underlined that “any form of nuclear weapons is unnecessary as long as extended deterrence consistently exists through cooperation between South Korea and the US.”
Next year, Lee condemned Yoon’s nuclear armament remark in early 2023 for being infeasible and causing a rift in the South Korea-US alliance, and maintained this stance in subsequent years.
Following Yoon’s remark about nuclear armament, a group of lawmakers from ruling and opposition parties was reportedly led by the US embassy and the US mission to NATO, with the US covering the associated expenses, to visit NATO and learn about NATO’s nuclear sharing. Before and after the visit, nuclear sharing was not discussed within the DP.
DP members had initially shown interest in nuclear latency and nuclear-powered submarines, but these stances were later reversed, and the party has remained silent on the issue since.
This February, Rep. Park Seon-won of the DP, the former First Deputy Director of the National Intelligence Service, asserted that Seoul should obtain 20 percent enriched uranium as a form of nuclear latency if Seoul is sidelined during a potential Trump-Kim dialogue. Still, he later said that he would “seriously reconsider it” after the March report about Seoul being designated as a “Sensitive Country” by the Department of Energy.
Regarding nuclear-powered submarines, two former DP Presidents, Roh Moo-hyun and Moon Jae-in, were ambitious about constructing them, but they did not make any progress.
So far, only one lawmaker from the DP, Rep. Lee Un Ju, has publicly advocated for Seoul’s nuclear weaponization on March 7 if President Trump recognizes North Korea as a nuclear weapon state.
Will President Lee’s Stance on Nuclearization Change American Foreign Policy?
The conflicting interests of the parties in Europe and the Middle East make it difficult for Trump to sustain negotiations and to act as a mediator. In contrast, on the Korean Peninsula, the new South Korean government is contributing to establishing strategically stable security conditions for Trump to engage in nuclear dialogues with Kim Jung-un.
Among various obstacles to resolving North Korea’s nuclear problem, inter-Korean relations remain the most critical factor for Washington to initiate, sustain, and conclude meaningful dialogue. At their first summit, Trump and Lee Jae-myung should coordinate to develop a pragmatic strategy grounded in risk reduction and mutual restraint.
