Geostrategic Media Political Commentary, Analysis, Security, Defense
The Levant has long been a stage upon which the drama of history has unfolded- a region where empires collided, faiths converged, and civilizations either flourished or crumbled. Far from being a mere relic of the past, this ancient nexus remains a cornerstone of global security and economic connectivity. At its heart lies Syria, now at a core intersection. The relentless civil war and shifting regional power dynamics have placed Syria at the center of a geopolitical struggle with profound global implications, threatening to redraw not only the map of the Middle East but also the strategic calculus of major international players. As the influence of traditional powers like Iran and Russia fades and emerging contenders such as Turkey and China assert themselves, the Levant once more becomes a crucible for the ambitions of nations-a battleground whose fate will shape the contours of global order for generations.
Throughout history, the Levant has served as a vital geopolitical nexus, uniquely positioned at the intersection of the Middle East, Asia, and Africa. Napoleon Bonaparte’s assertion that “He who controls the East will control world history” captures the enduring strategic importance of this region, a focal point of political aspirations, trade networks, and civilizational rivalries that have defined the trajectory of human progress and conflict.
While often conflated, the concepts of the Levant and the Orient differ in scope and specificity. The Levant refers to the Eastern Mediterranean – encompassing Syria, Lebanon, Jordan, Israel, and Palestine – a historical meeting point of civilizations and exchanges. The Orient, on the other hand, describes a broader expanse, stretching eastward from Europe to include the Middle East and Asia. Syria, as the cornerstone of the Levant, exemplifies this strategic centrality, acting as both the heart of regional dynamics and a gateway to the broader geopolitical realities of the Orient.
Since antiquity, the Levant has been a stage for intense rivalries. The Assyrian, Babylonian, and Egyptian empires clashed to control its vital trade routes. During the medieval era, the Crusades (1096-1291) brought a particularly violent chapter, as European Christian powers vied to dominate Jerusalem and the holy sites, facing off against Muslim forces led by iconic Islamic leaders.
In the late 18th and early 19th centuries, the Levant remained a theater of power struggles, attracting European imperial ambitions. Napoleon Bonaparte’s campaigns in Egypt and Syria (1798–1801) exemplified France’s desire to project influence in the region. These campaigns aimed to weaken the declining Ottoman Empire and disrupt Britain’s critical trade routes to India. Despite initial victories, such as the capture of Alexandria and triumph at the Battle of the Pyramids, the French faced fierce local resistance and decisive British naval interventions, such as the pivotal Battle of Aboukir in 1798.
During the 19th century, geopolitical confrontations in the Levant intensified. The British Empire, seeking to safeguard its imperial and commercial interests, reinforced its dominance through alliances, military campaigns, and maritime strength. The Levant’s control over East-West trade flows and its symbolic importance made it a perpetual focal point for global powers.
Modern Geopolitical Significance
The Levant’s strategic importance persisted into the 20th century, particularly during World War I, when the collapse of the Ottoman Empire and the Sykes-Picot Agreement divided the region into British and French mandates. The Arab-Israeli conflicts of 1948, 1967, and 1973 further reshaped the region’s borders and geopolitical dynamics. More recently, civil wars in Syria and Lebanon have exacerbated sectarian tensions, drawing in regional and global actors to address crises like the rise of ISIS. These conflicts, fueled by ethnic, religious, and geostrategic interests, continue to shape the Levant’s complex narrative. In today’s context, as Bashar al-Assad’s regime weakens, the Levant’s strategic centrality intensifies, signaling a profound shift in power dynamics. Regional and global actors are vying to fill the vacuum left by the withdrawal of Iranian and Russian forces.
Winston Churchill’s description of the Levant as a “land bridge” linking the Eurafrasian plate resonates strongly amid Syria’s current upheavals. If poorly managed, the transition could transform Syria into a battleground for regional powers like Turkey, Iran, and Israel, alongside global players such as Russia, the United States, and China. These shifts could reshape trade and energy corridors linking the Mediterranean and the Gulf. At the same time, prolonged instability risks fostering the resurgence of terrorist groups, turning Syria into a hotspot of insecurity threatening neighboring states and beyond.
The humanitarian crisis further complicates these challenges. Millions of refugees and displaced persons strain global systems, while the destruction of infrastructure exacerbates suffering. Addressing these issues demands coordinated international action to alleviate human suffering and rebuild Syria’s essential services.
For Turkey, the current situation presents an opportunity to strengthen its influence regionally and beyond. Ankara seeks to leverage the chaos to revive historical ambitions and consolidate its role as a Eurasian and Mediterranean power. A weakened Iraq and a Syria under Turkish influence would allow Ankara to reshape strategic balances in a region critical to its aspirations.
Turkey’s controversial presence in Libya exemplifies its broader strategy of entrenchment. By securing access to the central Mediterranean and establishing local partnerships, Ankara enhances its geopolitical leverage. Recent diplomatic efforts with Egypt and Saudi Arabia also align with this recalibration of regional ties, allowing Turkey to position itself as a key actor in both regional and global affairs.
In Syria, Turkey’s doctrine of “strategic depth” places northern Syria at the center of its policy. Securing its southern borders, countering PKK-affiliated Kurdish forces, and gaining leverage in international negotiations are central to Ankara’s objectives. However, Turkey faces challenges from rival axes, such as the European-backed Israel-Cyprus-Greece alliance focused on energy cooperation in the Eastern Mediterranean. In response, Ankara is likely to bolster alliances and develop capabilities to counterbalance these rivalries.
Challenges in Governance and Reconstruction
Building a stable Syrian state remains a monumental challenge. The country’s ethnic and religious diversity – Arabs, Kurds, Druze, Alawites, Sunnis, Shias, Christians, and others- is both a cultural asset and a governance challenge. Former French President Charles de Gaulle aptly described the Levant as a “crossroads of ambitions and cultures,” a notion that remains relevant today.
The collapse of state structures has intensified identity-based tensions, with Kurdish aspirations for autonomy clashing with Arab ambitions for unity. Religious minorities, such as Christians and Druze, also seek guarantees for their safety and recognition. Foreign interventions and non-state actors, such as militias, further complicate the landscape. While groups like the U.S.-backed Syrian Democratic Forces pursue autonomy, they exacerbate tensions with Turkey, which views them as existential threats.
To prevent further fragmentation, the international community must support decentralized governance that ensures territorial integrity while addressing the aspirations of all communities. Integrating militias into reformed security structures is essential for stability.
Moreover, The fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime would mark a turning point for the Middle East and beyond. As a strategic pillar of Iran’s regional ambitions, Assad’s regime has enabled Tehran’s influence across the Levant. Its collapse would dismantle the corridor linking Iran to Hezbollah, significantly weakening Iran’s position in Syria, Lebanon, and other conflict zones. Similarly, Hezbollah’s influence, heavily reliant on the Tehran-Damascus axis, would diminish, reshaping Lebanon’s political landscape.
This shift could also reframe Palestinian dynamics, with factions like Hamas and Islamic Jihad forced to reconsider their alliances. Meanwhile, global powers like the U.S. and Russia would face strategic recalibrations. Moscow, burdened by commitments elsewhere, such as in Ukraine, may struggle to maintain its foothold in Syria.
And then, the Levant, and Syria in particular, remains a strategic threshold of ambitions and rivalries. As a laboratory for global transformations, the region’s fate will profoundly influence international power structures. Coordinated international efforts are essential to stabilize Syria, rebuild its infrastructure, and address the aspirations of its diverse population. Mastering the Levant’s new dynamics will enable key players to shape not only the Middle East’s future but also the global order in the 21st century. Thus, Key global actors must work to establish a neutral peacebuilding platform, ensuring territorial integrity while addressing grievances and aspirations of local communities.
Hence, the Levant’s fate is not just a matter of regional interest; it is a global imperative. Peace and security in this nexus of civilizations, particularly in Syria, are the keystones for the stability of the Middle East and beyond. Syria’s transformations following the fall of Assad’s regime would mark a profound turning point, potentially dismantling long-standing corridors of influence, such as the Tehran-Damascus axis, and reshaping the regional balance of power. If managed wisely, these changes could pave the way for a more inclusive governance model, addressing the aspirations of Syria’s diverse communities. As history has shown, when the Levant thrives in harmony, the world benefits; when it falters, the ripples of instability touch every corner of the globe. As a result, only through collective will and coordinated action can we transform this theatre of ambitions into a stage of enduring peace, fostering stability and shared prosperity for Syria, the Levant, and the global order.
