Geostrategic Media Political Commentary, Analysis, Security, Defense
Strategic deterrence is a dynamic and colossal phenomenon that has evolved in the 21 st century, depending on the changes in international relations, in technological processes and in the security concepts. In the past, strategic deterrence was mainly an element of nuclear weapons with the MAD tactic popular during the cold war.
Nonetheless, the conditions of the 21st century have introduced considerable changes into the domain of strategic deterrence. Nuclear weapons remain important, but their role has evolved due to new technologies and emerging security threats. Currently, the United States and China have rapidly upgraded the modernity of nuclear weapons in their possession. For instance, China has been building up its nuclear inventory, refining new intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), new nuclear silo fields, nuclear missile submarines, etc.
These developments highlight a fundamental shift: nuclear deterrence is no longer confined to the conventional weapon systems. Take the JL-3 submarine-launch ballistic missile of China as an example, the range of its nuclear deterrence reaches the continental US. Likewise, the US has concentrated on rebuilding and enhancing its nuclear umbrella of land-based missiles, submarines and bombers besides working on new procedural models like hypersonic missiles which are likely to challenge the models of the deterrence.
Strategic deterrence is no longer as simple as nuclear weapons and missiles. There is another factor that has introduced a new factor in the contemporary world order: the cyber warfare tools. The two countries have devoted considerable resources into the development of their cyber capacities to be used as deterrent measures.
In addition, space has also become another theater of strategic leveraging on the concepts of deterrence. The United States and China have decided that the best way for them to proceed is to develop the ability to win space war in the event of hostile contact. The anti-satellite (ASAT) weapons including those demonstrated by China could potentially destroy satellites needed in military-signaling, navigation, and surveillance. Consequently, the United States has established the U.S. Space Force, which also highlights space as a strategic sector of security. Scholars believe that this capability of targeting an opponent’s assets in space has in the process come to form modern strategic deterrence.
Applying the same concept of deterrence in contemporary security studies, there appears to be befitting applicability to regional security systems of the 21st century particularly in the Asia-Pacific Region. China’s increasing capability of nuclear weapons also affects regional security because the countries in this region are required to change their security perspective. Further, the U.S has deepened its partnerships towards the East Asia into enhancing its position to balance the Chinese influence. Under the mutual security agreement between the United States and Japan for instance any attack on Japan will draw a response from United States of America even with nuclear power if need be. This strategic umbrella has been taken to other countries in the region such as India that also has its own myriads of nuclear issues with China and Pakistan.
Finally, looking at new developments, there is a rising significance of basically conventional precision-strike assets. For example, the United States has been funding hypersonic weapons that can hit targets faster than any other defenses and bypass missile defense. Low observable air vehicular systems like hypersonic missiles together with secure ISR is almost a leveraged power trip as it threatens an adversary’s tactical and strategic military infrastructures without necessarily escalating to the nuclear level. China also has also developed its own hypersonic systems thus signifying a general trend in both countries of shifting away from nuclear strategic deterrence.
However, it is the escalation control problem that constitutes the core of strategic deterrence in the 21st century and these technologies. Whereas earlier threats of nuclear retaliation have helped manage crisis escalation, the current weapon systems, including cyberspace and hypersonic missiles, hinder the management of access during crises. This particularly becomes the case given that many domains of warfare are intertwined: land, sea, air, space, and cyberspace.
In the 21st century, strategic deterrence is no longer a simple, one-level prospect, but a multiple level concept that involves cyberspace, space and actual weaponry. Especially due to new changes in the power distribution in the world where both China and US has become a global power to reckon with. They have realized the essence of upgrading and updating the concept of deterrence as a means of maintaining order and stability in the world today. However, sophistication of weapon systems and the modern shape of conflicts provides quite a challenge to the management of escalation, which underlines the necessity of the restart of the arms control and crisis management negotiations.
