7 weeks until Trump: Russia and Ukraine fight for advantage before peace talks are imposed

There may be only seven weeks left for meaningful fighting in Russia’s war on Ukraine, and both sides are gritting their teeth for what could be the last big push.

Donald Trump has vowed to end the conflict within a day of taking office and has appointed former national security aide and retired Lt. Gen. Keith Kellogg as a special envoy for Russia and Ukraine with a mandate to negotiate a truce.

As time runs short before the once-and-future president reenters the White House on January 20, Ukraine’s Western-backed military and the Kremlin’s invading forces are straining to take territory and whatever tactical advantage they can — with an eye on increasing their leverage before talks begin.

“There’s about to be a game-changing proposition put into the theater in the form of Donald Trump,” said James Nixey, head of the Russia-Eurasia program at the Chatham House think tank in London.

That makes the next two months until the presidential inauguration a potentially dangerous moment, two years and nine months into the war, with so much at stake for both sides.

“Everyone is assuming that there is a negotiation to come and both the Ukrainians and Russians want to be in the best place for it,” said a senior Western official, speaking on condition of anonymity because they weren’t authorized to comment publicly. “As both sides make more efforts, the risk of miscalculation gets more acute.”

Evidence of escalation is everywhere — most notably in the words and deeds coming from Moscow. In recent weeks, Russia has deployed thousands of troops from North Korea, fired a new kind of missile at Ukraine and even loosened the safety catch on the use of its nuclear weapons.

The Kremlin also said a U.S. anti-missile base in Poland would be “a priority target for potential neutralization.”

Russian forces stepped up the intensity of their operations in the east of Ukraine this month, according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), taking 574 square kilometers of territory since November 1, a higher rate than earlier this year or in 2023.

U.S. President Joe Biden, meanwhile, led Western powers in giving Kyiv permission to fire long-range missiles at targets inside Russia.

Kyiv and Moscow each have other reasons to want a quick end of the war. “They’re both in a race against time, not just because of Trump, but also because they both have systemic, endemic problems,” Nixey said.

Ukraine is short of manpower and seems to be “on course to lose this war,” according to Nixey. Russia has found reinforcements from North Korea and additional military support from China, but its economy is under pressure from a weakening ruble and Russian President Vladimir Putin has so far shied from ordering another round of conscription.

On the battlefield, NATO officials believe Russia is gaining ground but at a high cost, losing perhaps 1,500 troops a day. Ukraine is holding on, though it is difficult. “It’s not easy, but it’s not over. It’s not a lost cause,” said Adm. Rob Bauer, chairman of NATO’s military committee.

Putin is still fighting

The final weeks of the war could be critical, as the terms of a truce could come to define people’s lives in Ukraine for generations, said Norway’s foreign minister, Espen Barth Eide. “These historic decisions between countries will always leave something,” he added.

With Trump’s second term approaching, Ukraine’s allies have decided to hedge their bets. In addition to giving Kyiv permission to fire long-range missiles into Russia, Western officials have met in recent days to discuss how to bring about the best result if Trump enforces some kind of negotiation in January.

Reports in France suggested London and Paris had discussed potentially sending in troops as part of a peace initiative. Britain’s Foreign Secretary David Lammy did not rule out British boots on the ground in the future.

Trump’s choice of peace envoy is also instructive. In April, Kellogg, 80, coauthored a strategy paper calling for continuing to arm Ukraine but only if Kyiv agreed to participate in peace talks with Russia. To convince Putin to engage, Kellogg argued the U.S. “should offer to put off NATO membership for Ukraine for an extended period in exchange for a comprehensive and verifiable peace deal with security guarantees.”

There’s just one problem with all the talk of peace: “There is little evidence that Putin does actually want to negotiate for real,” said the Western official quoted above. “He can be patient where it is in his own interests.”

Canadian Foreign Minister Mélanie Joly warned the risk of negotiating with Putin would be that he would regroup and reinvade. “I really think that Putin has no red line,” she said. “The real threat we’re facing is either that he decides to leave, rearm and reinvade, or to do that elsewhere as well.”

Putin’s assault is not restricted to the immediate conflict zone. Western governments have been on heightened alert for so-called “gray zone” warfare at home as well as in Ukraine.

Western officials accuse the Kremlin of planting parcel bombs on planes, attempting targeted assassinations and carrying out attacks on critical infrastructure such as rail lines, undersea cables, and electricity networks.

So if Putin isn’t up for peace, what does he want?

The answer, according to Chatham House’s Nixey, is an expansion of the war.

“He does believe that he is at war with the wider West, and he has found a new way of tackling it by calling on and joining forces with what he calls ‘the global majority,’” Nixey said.

“Putin does want to bring the rules-based international order, shabby and imperfect as it is, crumbling down,” he added.