Geostrategic Media Political Commentary, Analysis, Security, Defense
Robert Taylor
As tensions flare across the Middle East, the United States finds itself at a crossroads regarding its influence in the region. The Israeli response to attacks from Hezbollah in Lebanon and Iran’s increasingly aggressive stance highlights the diminishing sway Washington holds in shaping regional outcomes. The Biden administration’s tepid handling of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s actions has not only undermined Israel’s trust but has also signaled to adversaries like Iran, China, and Russia that U.S. leadership in the Middle East is faltering.
For the next U.S. president, be it Joe Biden or Donald Trump, the challenge will be clear: either reassert American authority in a rapidly shifting Middle East or cede the region to Israel’s military dominance and the rising influence of Russia and China. But the choices are not simple, and both outcomes come with long-term consequences.
A Third Front for Israel
On October 1, 2024, Iran launched a barrage of over 180 missiles at Israel, marking one of the largest ballistic missile assaults against the state. While Israel’s air defenses intercepted most of the projectiles, several missiles hit military facilities, raising the stakes for both Israel and its neighbors. This attack came as retaliation for Israeli military strikes on Hezbollah in southern Lebanon, and the Iranian regime threatened even more severe action should Israel respond.
Israel’s government, however, made it clear that retaliation is inevitable. Prime Minister Netanyahu emphasized that Iran had committed a grave error and that Israel would act at a time of its choosing. This escalating cycle of retaliation and threats underscores the fragility of the region, where simmering tensions can quickly spiral into broader conflicts.
The Waning American Shield
While the United States has pledged “ironclad” support for Israel, recent events suggest a growing rift between Washington and Jerusalem. Following a cautious U.S. response to Iranian provocations earlier in the year, Israel’s confidence in America’s willingness to take decisive action has waned. Despite diplomatic reassurances from the Biden administration, Israel appears increasingly willing to act independently of U.S. recommendations, especially when it comes to Iran’s nuclear ambitions.
For Israel, the looming threat of a nuclear-armed Iran has shifted the calculus. While Washington calls for proportional responses, Israel fears that the window to prevent Iran from becoming a nuclear power is closing. Should Iran cross a critical threshold, Israel may be left with no choice but to strike, potentially without U.S. backing. The implications of such a move—whether it succeeds or not—could redraw the entire geopolitical map of the region.
Oil, Nukes, and the Election
Adding to the complexity is the political cost of a Middle East crisis. The Biden administration is keenly aware that a major conflict could drive oil prices skyward, stoking inflation and further weakening his already fragile re-election campaign. Conversely, a spike in energy costs could play directly into Donald Trump’s hands, giving the former president the ammunition he needs to accuse Biden of mismanaging both foreign policy and the economy.
Biden’s reluctance to back Israeli strikes on Iranian oil facilities stems in part from this economic anxiety. A conflict in the Gulf would send oil prices soaring, potentially up to $28 per barrel, if Iran were to blockade the Strait of Hormuz. Such a scenario would almost certainly sway the election in Trump’s favor, further complicating U.S. policy toward the Middle East.
Tehran’s Tightrope
For Iran, the stakes are just as high. The regime is walking a delicate line, aware that escalating tensions could inadvertently strengthen Trump’s campaign. Under Trump, the U.S. unilaterally withdrew from the JCPOA nuclear deal, and the re-imposition of sanctions has severely crippled the Iranian economy. The Iranian leadership knows that a second Trump administration could bring even harsher penalties or, worse, pursue regime change.
Iran’s growing ties with Russia and China offer some reprieve, but it’s far from a safety net. While Russia and Iran are united by their shared opposition to the West, there’s no guarantee that Moscow would come to Tehran’s defense in the face of U.S. aggression, especially if Trump, known for his dealmaking, seeks concessions from Russia in exchange for leniency in Ukraine.
Russia’s Calculations
Russia stands to gain from the current state of affairs. Facing Western sanctions itself, Moscow has deepened its military and economic ties with Tehran. The relationship has been mutually beneficial, with Iran supplying drones and missiles to Russia in exchange for military support. But as the war in Ukraine drags on, Russia’s ability to assist Iran militarily may become more limited, forcing Tehran to rely more on its own capabilities and its relationship with China.
China: The Distant Player
China’s role in the Middle East is one of cautious engagement. While Beijing has pledged support to Tehran and continues to buy Iranian oil through back channels, it remains unlikely that China would risk its own standing by getting involved in a Middle Eastern conflict. Iran’s economic dependency on China is undeniable—over 90 percent of its oil exports head to Chinese markets—but Beijing has little incentive to challenge the United States or Israel directly.
Despite Iran’s attempts to draw China closer into its sphere of influence, Beijing has so far shown little interest in playing a security role in the region. While China may oppose U.S. policies in the Middle East and provide diplomatic cover for Iran, it is unlikely to offer more than moral support.
A Middle East at a Crossroads
The Middle East is entering a new, uncertain phase. The Pax Americana that once defined the region is fading, leaving behind a volatile mix of unresolved conflicts, power vacuums, and rising authoritarian states. Whoever wins the next U.S. election will face the unenviable task of deciding whether to reassert American dominance in the region or let local actors like Israel, Iran, and their great power patrons shape the future.
Both choices are fraught with peril. If America pulls back, the risk of a larger, more catastrophic war looms large. But if it stays engaged, the U.S. may find itself stuck in an unwinnable game of trying to maintain order in a region that is increasingly beyond its control.
In the meantime, the Middle East teeters on the edge, waiting for the next American president to decide its fate.
