Geostrategic Media Political Commentary, Analysis, Security, Defense
Iran and Saudi Arabia being the two key players in West Asia their rivalry has generated a geopolitical tangle of complexities that spill over much beyond their borders into the extended region of West Asia. A key area where the rivalry takes form is Yemen over which both the countries have been waging a brutal proxy war ever since 2015. This conflict has a profound and far-reaching impact on the ongoing Israel-Palestine conflict as well. The volatile geopolitical landscape of West Asia is altered by the ideological dispute and struggle for power.
Humanitarian Crisis in Yemen: A Regional Ripple Effect
One of the most heinous and devastating humanitarian catastrophes; the war in Yemen had its initiation in the year 2015. A whopping 233,000 were killed and more than 131,000 lost their lives due to the indirect implications of the war such as poverty, starvation and the lack of availability of basic human requirements. Somewhere around 4 million displaced, and 80% of the population is deprived of basic human needs. The war was the most cruel to children with millions of them being prey to malnutrition. All of this hints towards Yemen being on the edge of a famine, as a result of the continued conflict.
The humanitarian crises in Yemen inevitably would leave ripples throughout the region. When the world is engrossed in watching Yemen break down, international and regional players are bound to divert resources and attention toward smoothening this crisis, thereby relegating other conflicts, such as Israel-Palestine, to the back burner. In addition to this the instability has emboldened terrorist organisations like AQAP and ISIS to thrive and further terrorize the gulf countries. This instability adds to the web of broader regional security architecture complexities and draws attention away from solutions to the Israel-Palestine conflict, further provoking tensions among regional actors.
Part of Iran’s broader play in extending its influence in West Asia, Iran’s involvement in Yemen plays on Iran’s long-term relationship with the Houthi rebels-a neo-Zaidi group following in the footsteps of the Zaidi tradition within Shia Islam adherent to counterbalance Saudi hegemony in the region. Support for the Houthis has been extended in monetary flow, military training, and more advanced weapon assignments, such as ballistic missiles and drones. He has used this weaponry to attack military targets and Saudi Arabian oil infrastructure. Houthis claimed responsibility for a drone attack on Saudi Aramco’s oil processing facilities in September 2019 claimed responsibility for a drone attack on Saudi Aramco’s oil processing facilities in September 2019, which temporarily disrupted global oil supplies.
By supporting the Houthis, Iran has created a strategic position on the southern border of Saudi Arabia as well as along the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, the choke point through which much of the world’s oil supply is carried. From this strong position, Iran can now dictate not only Saudi Arabia but also, to some extent, the global energy market. Additionally, the Houthis’ missile and drone capabilities have touched the nerves of Israel. Given the growing strength of the missile inventory at the disposal of Iranian-backed Houthis, these could now potentially be used against Israel or Israeli territory, further enhancing an already fragile security environment for Israel and further complicating its defence posture.
The ability to project power onto the regional scene without having to fight head-on has allowed Iran to employ proxy forces-the Houthis-in Lebanon, Syria, and Iraq, where Hezbollah and its brethren have won hegemony. Now, by going down into Yemen, Iran extends its influence toward destabilizing regional rivals while continuing to press Israel, entangling the Iran-Saudi competition with the Israel-Palestine conflict.
Saudi’s Deepening Relationship with Israel?
Saudi Arabia’s desire to limit Iran’s influence in the region has made it militarily significantly invested in Yemen and it has had a toll on its resources. In the effort to develop new alliances to fortify its regional standing as the war drags on, Saudi Arabia has undergone a fundamental shift in its position towards Israel.
Historically, Saudi Arabia had been one of the strong supporters of the Palestinian cause. The kingdom for ages supported the Arab Peace Initiative, an offer that dangled normalized relations with the Arab world in exchange for a Palestinian state based on 1967 borders. But in the last few years, Riyadh’s priorities seem to be changing. The Abraham Accords, signed in 2020 by the UAE, Bahrain, and Israel, are a steadily accepted norm of normalization between Israel and Arab states. Saudi Arabia does not have direct diplomatic relations with Israel but gradually enters the scene of quiet cooperation toward the opposition of Iran, intelligence-sharing, and similar areas.
This emerging relationship is mainly due to the mutual concerns Saudi Arabia and Israel have over Iran’s regional ambitions. The two countries have come to a mutual understanding that Iran presents the greatest threat to their security, thus leading to the ever-increasing understanding between these two states. While this country is reorienting its foreign policy to combat Iran, they have relegated the Palestinian cause to the backburner. This has very serious implications in the Israel-Palestine conflict, as Saudi Arabia’s decreased concern about Palestine reduces the pressure on Israel to make concessions toward peace. The thaw with Israel finds roots in the Iran-Saudi rivalry, especially in Yemen, which is recasting regional alliances and encumbers the pathway for solving the issue of Israel-Palestine.
Iran’s Ongoing Support for Palestinian Resistance Movements
While Saudi Arabia seems to be looking elsewhere and away from the Palestinian issue, Iran is under a strong necessity to continue to provide considerable support to the Palestinian resistance groups such as Hamas and Islamic Jihad. Such aid was not only financial but also military training, arming them with advanced weaponry. This policy was part of a larger strategy to challenge the domination of Israel in the region. Funding from Tehran has given Hamas and Islamic Jihad the muscle to boost their military capabilities and continue their campaign against the Jewish state. Such escalating violence between Palestinian factions and Israel is directly associated with regional ambitions emanating from Tehran.
The above move serves two purposes. One, it can challenge Israeli security, keeping Israel occupied with the threat from Gaza. Two, it allows Iran to present itself as a leader of the “resistance axis,” that is, as a coalition of groups and states aligned against Israeli and U.S. influence in the region. The Iranian leaders are then gifted with political capital among Arab populations because of support for the Palestinian cause, as Arab governments like Saudi Arabia have changed their priorities. Continued support for Palestinian factions gives the Israel-Palestine conflict an added longevity while availing this volatile region with another layer of complexity.
Implications on International Diplomatic Relations
The Iran-Saudi rivalry played out in Yemen, makes the international diplomatic efforts to resolve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict much more complicated. What once was America’s role as the prime mediator between Israelis and Palestinians is now transformed into navigating a web of alliances. The U.S. has been a close ally of both Saudi Arabia and Israel; hence, it has been involved in efforts to support the Saudi-led coalition in Yemen while seeking to maintain its commitment to Israel’s security.
The greatest challenge facing the United States, however, is to balance the U.S. relationship with key regional actors. The United States should compel Saudi Arabia to shoulder at least the war crimes responsibility for its humanitarian disaster in Yemen but also face a rising threat of Iran and its surrogates, who significantly threaten Saudi and Israeli security. European countries have also been involved in efforts to mediate peace in the region. However, the fractured nature of West Asia exacerbated by the Iran-Saudi rivalry makes these efforts increasingly difficult. As long as Iran and Saudi Arabia remain locked in their struggle for regional dominance, their proxy wars, including the conflict in Yemen, will continue to undermine efforts to resolve other conflicts, including the Israel-Palestine dispute.
Conclusion
The Iran-Saudi rivalry, particularly as it plays out in Yemen, has far-reaching implications for West Asia, including the Israel-Palestine conflict. The humanitarian crisis in Yemen highlights the broader regional instability caused by this rivalry. Iran’s use of proxies to project power and Saudi Arabia’s evolving relationship with Israel further complicate the regional landscape. Additionally, Iran’s continued support for Palestinian resistance groups ensures that the Israel-Palestine conflict remains intertwined with broader regional dynamics. As long as the Iran-Saudi rivalry persists, efforts to resolve the Israel-Palestine conflict will face significant challenges.
