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Iran has begun wielding its debt card against Bashar al-Assad’s regime, leveraging financial obligations to maintain its influence in Syria amid Damascus’ rapprochement with Arab nations. This pressure tactic aims to ensure Tehran’s interests and gains in the region are preserved.
Masoud Pezeshkian, the new Iranian president, emphasized the importance of bilateral relations during a recent call with Assad, highlighting the need to implement agreements for mutual benefit. However, according to Syrian economist Abdul Nasser Al-Jassem, Damascus has delayed or redirected these agreements, such as the investment in the port of Latakia and oil and phosphate exploration, favoring Russia instead. This prompted Tehran to demand repayment of debts and push for the ratification of an agreement signed last year, potentially preparing for international legal action.
Syrian Regime’s Rapprochement with Arab Nations and Turkey
Al-Jassem notes that Iran’s move comes as Assad’s regime strengthens ties with Arab countries, particularly Saudi Arabia, and Turkey, raising concerns in Tehran. Despite Syria’s financial struggles, Iran demands its dues, signaling frustration over Damascus’ shifting alliances.
Recent media reports indicate that former Iranian President Mohammad Mokhber sent a draft of a 20-year strategic economic cooperation agreement between Iran and Syria to the Iranian parliament for ratification, alongside economic agreements and Syria’s debts to Iran. The letter, addressed to the Speaker of the Iranian parliament, aligns with Article 77 of Iran’s constitution, which mandates parliamentary approval for international treaties and agreements.
$50 Billion in Debts
Syrian economic advisor Osama Qadi estimates Assad’s debts to Iran at around $50 billion, including funds from an annual credit line averaging $3 billion since 2014. Qadi asserts that Iran’s pressure to document these agreements aims to secure its presence in Syria amidst Assad’s efforts to court new allies.
Qadi dismisses the notion that Gulf states or Turkey will buy Syria’s debts, citing their conditions for Iran’s withdrawal from Syria before any financial aid or reconstruction efforts. He believes Iran’s entrenched presence in Syria mirrors its strategies in Lebanon and Yemen, making its withdrawal unlikely.
Impact of Iranian Pressure
The effects of Iranian pressure are evident on the ground. Damascus has faced severe fuel shortages, with the state fuel company halting deliveries and prices soaring on the black market. This scarcity stems from delayed Iranian oil shipments, exacerbating the energy crisis.
Sources in Damascus report intensified competition between Iranian-backed and pro-Turkish or Gulf factions, particularly in parliamentary elections. This rivalry underscores the broader geopolitical struggle for influence in Syria.
The “Strategic Cooperation Project” agreement, signed by the late Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi and Assad in May 2023, outlines a 20-year repayment plan for Syria’s debts. The agreement’s ratification follows accelerated Arab-Turkish normalization with Assad, raising the stakes for Iran’s role in Syria.
Syria’s Limited Options
Economic researcher Ayman Abdel Nour notes that Assad’s regime has few options but to comply with Iran’s demands. Historical precedents, like Syria’s repayment of oil debts to Iran in the 1990s, suggest Damascus may resort to selling real estate and facilities to settle its obligations.
Despite Assad’s maneuvering, the reality of Iran’s deep-rooted presence in Syria limits his ability to evade debt repayment or agreements. As regional dynamics evolve, Damascus continues to navigate its complex alliances, balancing Tehran’s demands with emerging opportunities for rapprochement with other nations.
In conclusion, Iran’s debt card against Syria reflects a broader geopolitical strategy to maintain its influence amid shifting regional alliances. Assad’s regime faces significant challenges as it seeks to balance these pressures while exploring new diplomatic avenues.
