Geostrategic Media Political Commentary, Analysis, Security, Defense
Sana Khan
Canada and China are moving toward a new strategic partnership that could deliver what Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney described as “historic” gains by leveraging complementary economic strengths. Speaking during a meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping, Carney emphasized cooperation in agriculture, energy, finance, and agri-food sectors. The visit marked the first by a Canadian prime minister since 2017 and signaled Ottawa’s intent to reset relations with its second-largest trading partner after a prolonged period of diplomatic strain.
Background: Rebuilding Strained Ties
Relations between Ottawa and Beijing deteriorated sharply in recent years amid disputes over trade, technology, and broader geopolitical alignments. Carney’s visit followed months of behind-the-scenes diplomatic efforts aimed at stabilizing ties and reopening channels of cooperation. The renewed engagement reflects Canada’s desire to diversify its economic partnerships at a time of growing uncertainty in its relationship with the United States.
Impact of U.S. Tariffs
The push to improve Canada–China relations comes in the wake of new U.S. tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump on Canadian goods, alongside rhetoric questioning Canada’s sovereignty. China, which has also faced escalating U.S. tariffs since Trump’s return to office, views closer cooperation with a G7 country as strategically valuable. Both governments appear motivated by shared economic pressures created by Washington’s increasingly protectionist trade policies.
China’s Strategic Calculations
President Xi Jinping welcomed the initiative, framing it as a responsible effort to improve bilateral relations in a divided global environment. For Beijing, engagement with Canada offers an opportunity to challenge the narrative of inevitable economic decoupling led by the United States. Analysts note that while China sees symbolic value in partnering with a close U.S. ally, it remains realistic about the limits of Ottawa’s strategic autonomy.
Limits of Canada’s Strategic Shift
Experts caution that Canada is unlikely to fundamentally realign away from Washington due to its deep integration into U.S.-led security, intelligence, and defense frameworks. While Ottawa may pursue a more pragmatic economic relationship with Beijing, it is expected to remain firmly anchored within the U.S. alliance system. Any shift, therefore, is more likely to be economic than strategic in nature.
Unresolved Trade Disputes
Despite the optimistic rhetoric, significant trade hurdles remain. In 2024, Canada imposed tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles, citing concerns over state subsidies and unfair competition. China retaliated with tariffs on more than $2.6 billion worth of Canadian agricultural exports, including canola oil, meal, and seed. These measures contributed to a notable decline in China’s imports of Canadian goods in 2025. Canadian officials have confirmed that tariff negotiations are ongoing.
Strategic Significance
If successful, the renewed partnership could recalibrate Canada’s economic positioning by reducing overdependence on the U.S. market while expanding access to China’s vast consumer base. For China, improved ties with Canada would weaken the perception of a unified Western front against Beijing and demonstrate that U.S.-led economic decoupling is neither universal nor uncontested.
Analysis
This developing partnership illustrates the growing role of middle powers navigating great-power rivalry through economic pragmatism. Canada is not abandoning the United States, but it is signaling resistance to excessive economic dependence on a single partner. From a neorealist perspective, Ottawa’s outreach reflects hedging behavior seeking flexibility and resilience without triggering a full strategic realignment. For China, the engagement offers both material benefits and symbolic leverage in its rivalry with Washington. The success of this rapprochement will depend less on diplomatic rhetoric and more on whether both sides can resolve lingering trade disputes without provoking backlash from domestic industries or the United States.
