Geostrategic Media Political Commentary, Analysis, Security, Defense
In a move that surprised few but underscores deep underlying tensions, OPEC+ chose to maintain steady oil production at its recent meeting, even as political fissures widen between Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, and the United States asserted control over Venezuela following the capture of President Nicolas Maduro.
The eight-member bloc, responsible for roughly half of global oil supplies, has already increased its output targets by some 2.9 million barrels per day between April and December 2025—equivalent to nearly 3% of global demand—yet oil prices have tumbled 18% over the year amid oversupply fears. The decision to hold production reflects the delicate calculus OPEC+ faces: balancing market stability against geopolitical frictions among members.
The rift between Riyadh and Abu Dhabi, sparked by the recent conflict in Yemen, signals a departure from the era when Gulf partners could easily coordinate policy under the OPEC+ banner. Historically, the cartel has relied on collective discipline to smooth over disputes, but today it must navigate a more fractured landscape. Russian exports, constrained by U.S. sanctions over the Ukraine war, and domestic unrest in Iran add layers of uncertainty to an already volatile market.
The Venezuelan situation further complicates matters. While President Trump’s declaration of U.S. control over the country is unprecedented, analysts warn that even with the infusion of American investment, Venezuelan oil production is unlikely to recover quickly. This reality underscores a broader challenge: geopolitical maneuvering rarely translates into immediate increases in global supply.
As OPEC+ prepares to reconvene on February 1, the group faces a test of coordination unprecedented in its modern history. Market watchers will be watching closely—not only for shifts in output but for signs that political rivalries might fracture the delicate balance on which the world’s energy markets depend.
In short, OPEC+ is no longer just an economic cartel; it is a microcosm of the broader global order, where diplomacy, rivalry, and market forces collide in real time. How the bloc navigates these overlapping crises will determine not just the trajectory of oil prices but the stability of the global energy landscape itself.
