Geostrategic Media Political Commentary, Analysis, Security, Defense
“Nothing grows in the shadow of great trees,” said the sculptor Constantin Brâncuși when he left his master, Rodin. He wasn’t rebelling for rebellion’s sake; he was claiming the space to become himself. He spoke of art, but he might as well have been speaking of today’s Europe.
Europe has long mistaken comfort for strength. Under the protective shelter of the United States, it outsourced its own defense, convinced that diplomacy and regulatory power could substitute for hard power. Under the seductive efficiency of China’s manufacturing engine, it outsourced its industrial backbone, trusting that access to cheap technology and components would last forever. And under the lure of Russian energy, it outsourced its security, mistaking abundant gas and oil for lasting leverage.
Europe’s energy transition is largely powered by Chinese technology. Over 98 percent of imported solar panels come from China, which also dominates the rare earth and magnet industry—controlling roughly 70 percent of global mine production, 90 percent of refining, and 94 percent of permanent magnet manufacturing. These materials are critical for everything from renewable energy to EVs and high-tech devices.
Europe is barely in the game when it comes to artificial intelligence, a competition dominated by two giants. In 2024, U.S.-based institutions produced forty notable AI models, compared with China’s fifteen and Europe’s three. The continent also relies heavily on major American companies for digital infrastructure and cloud services, as recent disruptions from an AWS server outage have shown. It has no hyperscalers of its own.
Moreover, red tape is choking tech development. The Draghi reportmentions that the bloc has roughly 100 tech-focused laws and more than 270 regulators overseeing digital networks across all member states.
Defense isn’t much better. Reliance on the U.S. has hollowed out Europe’s capabilities, as the war in Ukraine has shown. Defense spending sits at just 1.9% of GDP in 2024. The gap is even starker in R&D, where the U.S. outinvested Europe by nearly €120 billion in 2023. The problem is not a shortage of know-how but of scale and strategic vision. Chronic underinvestment, overregulation, deindustrialization, and fragmentation have left Europe’s defense industrial base too small, too slow, and incapable of meeting its security needs.
The world’s economic center of gravity has long since shifted away from Europe and the Atlantic toward the Indo-Pacific. Home to more than half the planet’s population, nearly two-thirds of global GDP growth, and the world’s busiest trade routes, that region now anchors global security and prosperity.
Once, Venice was a great power. But when the center of gravity moved from the Mediterranean to the Atlantic, it failed to adapt and ended up as a city living off tourism and relics. Europe risks the same fate through a slow “Venetization” of its own. Unless it awakens, it too will become an open-air museum of its own past glories.
For as long as the Atlantic system dominated, Europe’s internal weaknesses—its fragmented market, sluggish productivity, sprawling bureaucracy, and energy dependence—remained hidden. But under the current geopolitical realities, those weaknesses are no longer manageable.
If Europe’s leaders fail to think strategically and in global competitive terms, the continent will fall even further behind. The pressure from Washington, particularly under Donald Trump, may be self-serving, but it also acts as a wake-up call. Europe can no longer afford to depend on others for its defense. The long shadow of the United States, especially since the end of the Cold War, has atrophied Europe’s strategic muscles and discouraged the growth of a competitive defense industry.
Economic dependence breeds political timidity. A continent that relies on others for its energy, technology, and critical resources cannot claim real independence. As Mario Draghi warned, Europe’s maze of regulations, fragmented markets, and chronic underinvestment are stifling its ability to compete. Europe survived every storm since the Cold War, but it lets others decide which way the wind blows.
Europe must take tough decisions. That means making choices that often seem politically impossible within the short cycles of national politics: pooling defense capabilities, building genuine capital markets, investing jointly in next-generation technologies, and accepting that sovereignty shared among Europeans is stronger than sovereignty borrowed from others.
Europe now needs a new “whatever it takes” moment, not to save its currency, but to save its future. It must find the courage to think and act on its own terms, to grow and compete on its own strength rather than rely on others for protection, power, or purpose.
Constantin Brâncuși left Auguste Rodin’s studio despite his admiration for the master. Europe now faces the same moment of truth. It is more a question of will rather than means. It can either cling to a fading shelter, protected, supplied, and slowly diminished, or step into the light and learn to stand on its own. Stepping into the light does not mean turning its back on its allies, but standing tall beside them.
