Geostrategic Media Political Commentary, Analysis, Security, Defense
Yang Xite
The “plenary sessions” of the Chinese Communist Party’s Central Committee play a crucial role in determining the country’s future policy direction, and if one wishes to know where China is heading, it would be indispensable to understand these plenums.
From October 20 to 23, the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee reviewed and adopted recommendations for China’s 15th Five-Year Plan. This plan represents not only a critical five-year period toward achieving what China considers to be its “2035 goal of socialist modernization”, but also a decisive stage in overcoming the threefold pressures of shrinking demand, supply shocks, and weakening expectations while striving to escape the middle-income trap.
Unlike previous cycles, this plan faces a far more complex domestic and global landscape: global industrial chains are being restructured amid intensifying technological competition, China’s traditional land-based fiscal model is losing momentum, while its demographic dividend is waning, and a new technological revolution is nearing a decisive phase.
The shift in strategic focus from “high-quality development” to “advancing Chinese modernization comprehensively” reflects a deep evolution in China’s development vision. The Fifth Plenary Session of the 19th Central Committee marked 2020 as the starting point for building a modern socialist country, emphasizing poverty alleviation and pollution control. The Fourth Plenary Session, however, reframed the goal as “advancing national rejuvenation through modernization”, indicating the country’s policy-makers are aware of the need to sustain economic growth while ensuring social stability and national security in a more complex global environment.
China’s economic logic has also evolved. The previous Fifth Plenary Session prioritized deepening supply-side structural reform and expanding domestic demand, modernizing industrial and supply chains, and stabilizing the agricultural base. The latest Fourth Plenary Session, however, shifts from structural optimization to cultivating new growth drivers. It calls for accelerating high-level self-reliance in science and technology and developing “new-quality productive forces”. Industrial policy now follows the principles of intelligence, greenness, and integration. The session also outlined a coordinated strategy for strengthening China’s capabilities in education, science, technology, and talent, signaling a move from traditional industrial upgrading to innovation-driven, technology-integrated growth.
In defense and military affairs, the Fourth Plenary Session extends the goals related to the centenary of the People’s Liberation Army, promoting modernization of national defense and the armed forces. The introduction of a new “three-step” modernization roadmap reflects a more structured and integrated national security framework.
Social welfare-wise, the 19th Central Committee emphasized expanding social security coverage, improving access to public services, and consolidating poverty reduction results. The 20th Central Committee places greater focus on precision and equity, highlighting high-quality development in the real estate sector and improvements in population well-being. This reflects a shift toward more targeted resource distribution to address diverse social needs.
Rural revitalization and regional development strategies have also evolved. The Fifth Plenary Session promoted comprehensive rural revitalization and urban–rural integration. The Fourth Plenary Session develops this further into “comprehensive revitalization of rural areas”, aiming to ensure “basic modern living conditions” in rural communities. It also stresses regional coordination and sustainable use of marine resources, indicating a more integrated approach to urban–rural and regional development.
Cultural and ecological strategies have similarly deepened. The session of the 19th Central Committee emphasized the development of cultural initiatives and the improvement of public cultural services. The 20th Central Committee, in turn, calls for stimulating cultural creativity, enhancing the international influence of Chinese culture. This suggests a shift from focusing on cultural provision to emphasizing innovation and international engagement.
In ecological development, the focus has expanded from promoting green growth to advancing a “comprehensive green transformation” of economic and social systems. The Fourth Plenary Session connects this objective with carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals, promoting simultaneous progress in carbon reduction, pollution control, ecological protection, and economic growth. This represents a transition from localized environmental management to a broader, system-oriented green transformation.
From the 14th Plan to the present, these strategic adjustments reflect efforts to adapt to evolving domestic and international conditions and to pursue long-term development goals across multiple sectors. Together, these initiatives summarize China’s recent policy directions and outline its approach to addressing future challenges.
