Geostrategic Media Political Commentary, Analysis, Security, Defense
In 2025, Iran’s nuclear issue has emerged as one of the most intricate challenges in global diplomacy, where geopolitical tensions, regional security concerns, and efforts to uphold the nuclear non-proliferation regime have converged. The return of Donald Trump to power and his preference for bilateral talks with Iran present Europe with a pivotal question: should the continent, once a central architect of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), remain a passive observer or adopt a bold and independent strategy to defend its vital interests?
Europe’s long experience with multilateral diplomacy—from its initial involvement in 2003 to its relentless efforts to salvage the JCPOA following the U.S. withdrawal in 2018—demonstrates the continent’s considerable capacity for mediation. Nevertheless, recent reports suggest that Europe has been sidelined in current negotiations, despite possessing diplomatic leverage and broad regional ties that could be decisive. If this marginalization persists, Europe’s geopolitical stature could be further weakened, increasing the risk of instability in the Middle East.
Trump’s reelection in November 2024 has steered U.S. foreign policy toward a transactional, bilateral approach. The United States has initiated nuclear talks with Iran in Oman without consulting its European allies, raising concerns in Paris, Berlin, and London. This approach recalls the 2018 U.S. exit from the JCPOA, which triggered Iran’s breach of nuclear limits and a dramatic expansion of its enrichment program. The ongoing negotiations, mediated by Oman, are focused on securing a verifiable nuclear peace deal, yet Europe’s exclusion has prompted questions about the comprehensiveness and sustainability of the process.
Facing economic hardship due to sanctions, Iran has signaled readiness to reach a deal and has recently proposed direct talks with European powers, indicating a desire to reduce reliance on bilateral discussions with the U.S. However, Iran’s hardened position—fueled by its nuclear advancements and strategic ties with Russia and China—combined with Israeli threats of military action, possibly by mid-2025, leaves Europe facing a challenging diplomatic landscape.
Still, continued European inaction could forfeit a rare opportunity to steer the process toward a stable and durable agreement. Active involvement by the E3—France, Germany, and the UK, who have played pivotal roles in nuclear diplomacy with Iran since 2003—is essential to preserving diplomatic leverage. Their experience as intermediaries between Iran and the U.S. during the JCPOA negotiations illustrates their value. Yet under Trump, these countries have been almost entirely excluded from recent diplomatic efforts. Given their unique position, diplomatic expertise, and regional engagement, Europe is well-placed to shape the course of negotiations.
By pursuing an independent policy, Europe can use its diplomatic relationships and economic influence to encourage Iran to commit to a comprehensive and verifiable deal. Coordinated but autonomous efforts—rather than complete alignment with Washington—would ensure that negotiations reflect European security interests rather than unpredictable U.S. priorities.
A unilateral U.S. approach risks producing an agreement lacking international legitimacy. The JCPOA’s 2015 success depended on the collective backing of the P5+1 (China, France, Germany, Russia, the UK, and the U.S.) and the EU’s mediating role. A purely bilateral deal may lack the international support necessary for implementation and could heighten regional instability. A proactive and independent European role could restore multilateral legitimacy and ensure any agreement aligns with International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) standards.
Ongoing IAEA concerns regarding Iran’s lack of transparency—particularly concerning undeclared nuclear sites—underscore the need for robust monitoring. Europe, with its longstanding diplomatic engagement with Tehran, can encourage Iran to adopt the Additional Protocol and cooperate fully with the IAEA, preventing Tehran from exploiting rifts among Western powers. This is especially critical given Iran’s growing alignment with Russia and China since the U.S. withdrew from the JCPOA.
An independent policy would also enable Europe to facilitate parallel regional security talks with Gulf states and Israel. Europe’s strained ties with Iran—exacerbated by Tehran’s support for Russia in the Ukraine war—could serve as motivation for more active diplomacy. Offering economic incentives, such as limited access to European markets, could increase leverage without reliance on U.S. policy.
The looming threat of Israeli military action against Iran’s nuclear facilities, potentially by mid-2025, adds urgency to Europe’s diplomatic engagement. A lack of international coordination could lead to broader conflict. Leveraging its diplomatic ties with Israel and crisis-management experience, Europe could mediate through direct talks with Iran to reduce the risk of military escalation.
An independent European strategy might also include offering security guarantees to Israel and supporting regional confidence-building measures. Europe’s role as a diplomatic bridge could help avert military catastrophe. This approach would allow Europe to integrate Israeli and Gulf security concerns into the negotiations and prevent unilateral actions.
To play a central and effective role in the 2025 nuclear talks, Europe must first ensure coordination among France, Germany, and the UK to present a unified front. This requires regular consultations at the foreign minister and senior diplomatic levels to avoid internal rifts. Establishing an EU-level task force could bolster the E3’s influence and steer the talks with greater clarity. The task force should include senior representatives to facilitate swift coordination with Iran and other stakeholders.
Europe must also initiate consistent and goal-oriented dialogues with Gulf countries—especially Saudi Arabia and the UAE—and with Israel to address regional security concerns. These efforts can be pursued through existing frameworks such as the Baghdad Conference. Proposals for confidence-building measures, such as security information exchanges, could enhance regional buy-in for any agreement.
Europe should also support enhanced IAEA oversight of Iran’s nuclear program and intensify efforts to persuade Iran to adopt the Additional Protocol. Providing financial resources to improve IAEA monitoring technologies could enhance transparency. Deploying European diplomats to oversee Iran’s compliance with negotiated commitments would help ensure full adherence.
The 2025 nuclear talks are a defining moment for Europe’s geopolitical role. Remaining passive in the face of Trump’s unilateralism would not only weaken European influence but also risk a fragile deal and regional turmoil. With its diplomatic experience, regional ties, and Iran’s recent offer of direct negotiations, Europe now has a unique opportunity to reclaim the diplomatic initiative—and it must seize it.
Europe must shift from passive observation to active engagement. By stepping away from Trump’s “America First” agenda and embracing an independent foreign policy, Europe can and must play a leading role in the 2025 nuclear negotiations—not only to safeguard its core interests, but to act as a principal architect of global stability and nuclear non-proliferation.
