Geostrategic Media Political Commentary, Analysis, Security, Defense
France´s new government is taking its first steps. This comes after President Emmanuel Macron approved the list of names presented to him by Prime Minister Michel Barnier on the 19th. The formation of the new executive arrives two and a half months after the July 7 elections, following an unprecedented deadlock that raised alarm bells across the political spectrum. Even in the final moments, tensions between Macron and Barnier threatened to derail the process once again. Perplexingly, even though the left-wing bloc won the elections, the new government leans decidedly toward the centre-right, signalling its futility in a divided Parliament. What’s next?
Macron continues his flight forward in his gamble to address the political crisis. Rather than representing the “national unity” promised by himself in his letter to the public, the appointment of this new government, led by conservative Michel Barnier, extends the political crisis that has gripped France since the president’s gamble in July. Macron and Barnier have opted for a staunchly conservative cabinet with little political capital, composed mainly of Macronists and members of the traditional right-wing party, Les Républicains (LR). LR performed poorly in the elections and stayed out of the Republican Front that united to block the far right.
The current situation stands in stark contrast to the political renewal Macron promised when he first took office in 2017. His decision to form a centre-right government marks the definitive end of the Republican Front (Anti-far right) which triumphed in the elections, a dangerous move with three years remaining before the next presidential election, in which the Rassamblement National is already polling as a strong favourite. Decisions like these, which disregard the electoral mandate, only deepen the democratic disenchantment spreading across Western democracies, ultimately benefiting the far right.
Barnier’s government is already on shaky ground. Its survival depends on two opposing forces: The New Popular Front that won the elections and has vowed to bring the government down with a no-confidence motion, and the RN, which holds the balance of power. The far-right party has regained its strength due to the fragmentation of the Republican Front and now holds the role of kingmaker. The RN’s 126 deputies and 11 million votes give Le Pen significant leverage over the new government, which will last only as long as she allows it.
The new government was born from a difficult and contentious process. Initially, Barnier sought to secure key ministerial positions for members of his own party, but Macron rejected these demands during a tense meeting at the Elysée. Eventually, a compromise was reached, granting LR several important roles. The coordinator of the left-wing France Unbowed party, Manuel Bompard, told the broadcaster France Bleu Provence that the new administration represented an act of “democracy denial that is completely unacceptable and intolerable.” Environmentalist politician Sandrine Rousseau labelled the new government “an alliance of losers,” reflecting the general discontent across the political landscape.
Macron’s party, Ensemble, remains the dominant force in the new government, which is composed of 38 ministers, evenly divided between men and women. Of these, only 16 will hold full ministerial portfolios. Ensemble will occupy seven key ministries, while LR will hold three, and MoDem, a centrist party founded by François Bayrou, will control two. The remaining portfolios will be distributed among smaller centre-right and left-wing parties.
Barnier has vowed to take a hard-line approach on security and immigration, which will be embodied by Bruno Retailleau at the Interior Ministry. Retailleau’s hard-right stance is seen as a clear signal to Le Pen’s RN, whose support Barnier needs to govern effectively. Laurence Garnier’s likely appointment as Minister of Family Affairs, a figure known for her opposition to same-sex marriage and reproductive rights, further highlights the conservative tilt of the new administration. In the economic sphere, Antoine Armand, a 33-year-old member of Macron’s party, will head the Ministry of Economy, which will be split into separate finance and economic portfolios. Macron will personally appoint the ministers of Defense and Foreign Affairs, with Sébastien Lecornu and Jean-Noël Barrot expected to fill these roles.
Barnier faces two major challenges: building a working majority in a hostile parliament and addressing France’s severe financial issues, including a public deficit forecast to reach over 6% by 2025. The new government is structurally weak, leaning heavily toward the far right in an attempt to secure Le Pen’s backing. By favouring conservative ministers, Macron and Barnier have alienated moderate leftists who could have been crucial allies. Barnier, once seen as a consensus-builder, now leads a government of division.
This situation might not last long. December looms as a critical month for the new government, with the approval of the yearly budget (a usual painful hurdle for all governments, even more in this case) that could fall to a no-confidence motion, likely supported by a coalition of the left and the far right. François Hollande, the former socialist president and now a deputy, is urging the socialists to immediately present a motion of no confidence. Meanwhile, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, leader of La France Insoumise, is calling for renewed street protests and for the government to be overturned in Parliament. A probable defeat here could signal the end of the Macronist cycle and the failure of the government. Le Pen’s RN is now able to dictate the government’s future, and the political landscape is as polarized as ever. With rising social unrest and widespread dissatisfaction, the new government faces an uphill battle for legitimacy and survival.
Barring a no-confidence motion, there are a few options going forward:
-RN could “hold hostage” the government for the next three years, helping pass only laws that benefit them and torpedoing any dissent from the rest of the government, hoping that their situation as the key to government can give them electoral rewards in 2027 (they would have been the party “for” governance). Also, in quite a Machiavellian twist, Le Pen could hope that the government destroys itself with three years of frustrations and failures (Macron was rumoured to be thinking about allowing the far right into government for the same reason). This option seems unlikely as RN prime ministerial candidate Jordan Bardella has stated that: “This new government marks the return of Macronism… What the French have rejected twice cannot be brought back through miserable political manipulations; it is a government with no future.”
-Macron could try and use the executive power of the government; enshrined in the article 49.3 of the Constitution which allows a law to be passed without the need to vote; to circumvent the legislative process, gaining time and protecting some of his landmark legacy points (which were made law mostly with this tool). Unfortunately for the President that would only reinforce the idea of a leader who is out of touch with the people and their wishes, clinging to power just for the sake of his own interests. This would surely lead to either an electoral debacle in 2027 or a no-confidence motion down the line.
-Lastly, we have the nuclear option: Accept defeat, for Macron to resign and new elections to be called in less than 35 days. Macron might feel now is the best chance to stop the far right, with the memory and practice of the cordon sanitaire still fresh in most French minds. A plunge into the abyss with unforeseen consequences but nevertheless one that Macron should consider if he doesn’t want to be remembered as the president who paved the way for a far-right government.
There is a storm brewing in the French political landscape, one that will change French politics like none other in the last decade. The only questions left are how and when is it going to happen.
