Fear in Lebanon of the “Day After”

Megan Townsey

Lebanon stands at a precarious juncture, with escalating tensions between Israel and Hezbollah pushing the region towards a potential comprehensive war. The increase in clashes on the northern Lebanese border highlights the danger of a wider conflict if a ceasefire is not achieved between Hamas and Israel. This comes amid Israel’s continuing operations in Khan Yunis, which have been marked by significant aggression and are viewed as the most intense in recent months.

The United States emphasizes the necessity of a diplomatic resolution to avoid further escalation, advocating for a ceasefire that would allow families in Lebanon and Israel to return to their homes. However, tensions are mounting over the delivery of weapons and the dire humanitarian situation in Gaza, leading to friction between the U.S. and its allies.

Despite the apparent mutual reluctance of both Israel and Hezbollah to engage in a full-scale war due to the likely severe repercussions, neither side seems willing to back down. A diplomatic solution, while possible and preferred, is hindered by the ongoing attacks, substantial losses, and lack of retreat from aggressive stances, potentially nudging the conflict towards war if immediate steps towards de-escalation are not taken.

Lebanese Anxiety and Future Uncertainties

The Lebanese populace is deeply anxious about the future, irrespective of how the current conflict unfolds. Their fears are rooted in the historical context of past conflicts that have ravaged their daily lives, economy, and infrastructure. The potential outcomes of a diplomatic solution remain uncertain, with doubts about its efficacy, longevity, and whether it would truly shield them from future tensions or merely serve as a temporary fix.

In contrast, a destructive war could lead to significant political upheaval or even the partitioning of the country, contingent on the actions of external and internal forces and their capacity to uphold security. Political factions and parties within Lebanon will likely play a pivotal role in influencing these events, complicating efforts to restore stability.

A comprehensive war could devastate Lebanon’s infrastructure, worsen its already severe economic crises, and trigger extensive internal displacement and migration. The country faces the risk of being placed on the Financial Action Task Force’s grey list, indicating non-compliance with anti-money laundering and counter-terrorism financing standards. This would exacerbate economic troubles by hindering international support and complicating financial transactions across borders.

Hezbollah’s Role and External Influences

Hezbollah’s actions and rhetoric have done little to assuage Lebanese fears about the future. The geopolitical dynamics in Gaza and Lebanon have set the stage for potential significant shifts in political alliances and power balances. Hezbollah’s monopolization of the decision to go to war has polarized opinions within Lebanon, with opponents rejecting this unilateral control.

Recently, diplomatic efforts have seen various initiatives aimed at halting the conflict, from Arab League proposals to indirect communications with Hezbollah through international envoys. These diplomatic maneuvers indicate a cautious approach to maintaining negotiation channels open, especially in light of upcoming U.S. elections and ongoing peace negotiations involving Iran.

Potential for Diplomatic Resolution and Reconstruction

Efforts are being made to explore diplomatic solutions, including potential land demarcation agreements following maritime agreements, gas extraction opportunities, and rebuilding efforts. However, the true test lies in whether these diplomatic overtures can bring lasting peace or merely provide a temporary respite.

The Lebanese remain concerned that Hezbollah might leverage any post-war scenario for political gain, exacerbating internal and regional tensions. Despite the party’s assurances of a “Lebanese day” post-conflict, the populace fears that Hezbollah’s influence could overshadow broader national interests, increasing pressure on Lebanon’s already fragile caretaker government.

Conclusion

The situation in Lebanon is fraught with uncertainty, with the potential for either a diplomatic resolution or a devastating war. The Lebanese people, caught in the middle, fear the implications of either outcome, particularly the day after any conflict or agreement. As regional and international stakeholders navigate this complex landscape, the need for a sustainable and comprehensive solution that addresses the root causes of the conflict has never been more critical.