Geostrategic Media Political Commentary, Analysis, Security, Defense
Melissa Greenfield
Contrary to the expectations set by opinion polls preceding the second round of the French elections last Sunday, which predicted a landslide victory for the extreme right led by the National Rally party, the results brought many surprises. The most notable was the coalition of French left-wing parties, known as the “New Popular Front,” topping the results. This led to much rejoicing over the perceived victory of the left, which was seen as defeating the extreme right in what was described as a “decisive and historic” election.
However, the picture is more complex than initial headlines suggested or as Jean-Luc Mélenchon, leader of the Proud France Party and the Left Alliance, proclaimed when he called for handing over power to the left before the final results were disclosed. With all the numbers now revealed, it is evident that there is neither a clear victor nor a loser in these elections. The leftist alliance won 182 seats across four parties united by their opposition to the far right. President Emmanuel Macron’s alliance followed with 168 seats, and the far-right alliance secured 143 seats. None of these political forces can form an absolute majority, which requires 289 seats.
The race is not over with this round of parliamentary elections. We must look ahead to the potential resurgence of the far right in the 2027 French presidential elections.
A careful analysis of the election results reveals a real, albeit nuanced, victory for the extreme right. This group made a significant leap compared to the previous legislative elections, increasing its representation from 89 deputies to 143 seats, including 125 for Marine Le Pen’s National Rally party. Additionally, the far-right coalition won the largest number of expressed votes, making it the most popular political force. Nearly nine million votes, or about one-third of the expressed votes, went to the far right, compared to seven million for the left-wing “Popular Front” and six million three hundred thousand for Macron’s coalition. This prompted Jean-Marie Le Pen to describe the outcome as a “deferred victory.”
The success of the extreme right was postponed, thanks to the “Republican Front,” a coalition of the French president’s camp, the Gaullist right, and the left-wing alliance. The withdrawal of over 220 candidates in favor of this front led to direct duels between its candidates and those of the extreme right, often with negative outcomes for the latter. The far-right’s weaknesses, including hollow neoliberal slogans and candidates’ racist, anti-Semitic, and misogynistic statements, became apparent during debates on French public channels.
The strategy of the right and populists is to play on the frustrations of the people, turning them into supporters for their future ambitions. Despite the temporary setback, the right-wing advance in France continues. The so-called “partial” defeat of the French far right in the recent elections will position it as the main opposition force within the French Parliament for the next two years. This will likely enhance its popularity, especially among those with lower levels of education, who form the core of its electoral base. The far right will continue to strengthen its roots in the French political scene, gaining more supporters with its populist rhetoric.
Contrary to what many might imagine, the recent electoral performance of the French extreme right is a step towards the Élysée Palace. This strategy, employed since the early 2000s, has seen the far right grow stronger with each electoral defeat. What doesn’t kill makes you stronger, and this is evident in the far right’s resilience.
In the coming years, we will witness how the extreme right leverages its declared defeat, presenting itself as a victim of political collusion. It will appeal to its disillusioned voters, claiming their victory was stolen and positioning its opponents as anti-democratic. This narrative will strengthen its base, as the right and populists often do, turning setbacks into future advantages.
In essence, the recent elections were not a final battle but a continuation of the political struggle in France. The far right’s influence is far from diminished, and its eyes are set firmly on future victories, potentially altering the landscape of French politics in the years to come.
