Geostrategic Media Political Commentary, Analysis, Security, Defense
Ismaila Diadama
The war seems so far away, the repercussions in the world are very important. Russia is the third largest exporter of oil with 5 million barrels per day, of which 13% of our street fuel comes from there. Since February 24, 2022, Russia has been at war with Ukraine on the grounds that the rapprochement of Ukraine to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) would threaten the internal security of Russia. As such, many questions come to mind: What will happen to those oil exports that are stuck in the ports? What will happen if the world blocks Russia from its oil exports? Today the price of oil has changed dramatically, a week ago the price of a barrel was 110 dollars, now it is 140 dollars. Consumers do not need crude oil, but when refineries ask for more money from distributors, distributors ask for more money from gas stations and gas stations ask for more money from consumers. As soon as the price of oil rises, transportation becomes difficult, travelling becomes difficult, using a car becomes expensive, transporting goods becomes expensive and this makes life difficult for everyone. Since it is often said that if the price of crude oil rises, the cost of living rises and life becomes very difficult to manage, food becomes expensive, the price of supermarket products gallops (fruits, vegetables, accessories etc. …). As an illustration: A supermarket spends huge amount of money to pay the transporters and the transporters spend much more money for the initiators, finally if the price of fuel goes up all life changes. If fuel becomes expensive, this can have an impact on the cost of living because inflation often leads to overpricing with direct consequences on the household basket.
The destruction of Ukraine will play a disastrous role in our life:
1- Every day for every minute there is uncertainty about the distribution of oil;
2- The economic isolation of Russia through Western sanctions will have a negative impact on our daily life;
3- Russian banks were already subject to sanctions at the moment. They do not have access to the SWIFT system (system of communication between banks allowing the exchange of transactions from one account to another) crucial to the existence in the world of the capitalist because to send money, it is necessary to use the SWIFT system. Most Russian banks are sanctioned and cannot make transactions through the SWIFT system, many Russians are unable to withdraw their money.
40% of the gas that Europe uses comes from Russia and it goes through Ukraine so Europe is totally dependent on Russia. Ukraine is the second largest gas reserve in Europe, if the war continues and the West continues to sanction Russia the situation will become catastrophic. The USA has gas reserves that it hardly uses except in situations like this.
And Europe in this situation?
First of all, it should be noted that the largest quantity of sunflower oil in the world comes from Ukraine and a large quantity (380,000 tons) is stuck in the ports. It is this oil that we use to make French fries and grill our steaks. This means that eating at home will be very expensive. Then, it follows that Ukraine is also one of the top four exporters of corn in the world. Russia and Ukraine produce 19% of corn and this war will have a catastrophic effect on corn and corn-related products. Finally, there is wheat where Russia is the largest producer of wheat in the world about 20% comes from and 10% produced by Ukraine. In many countries, the main food is wheat (bread, cakes, pasta etc…). From all this productivity, we can deduce that Russia and Ukraine play a very important role in our consumption and nutrition.
What about Africa?
With a population of 1.4 billion in 2022, that is 18% of the world’s population, Africa is dependent on the outside world. Africa is likely to be permanently affected by the war in Ukraine. But what does it concern us? In 2021, 70% of Russian wheat will have gone to Asia and Africa. This means that today Africa benefits largely from Russian wheat which will certainly be impacted by this war. All wheat-based products will see an increase in price, but Europe will be disastrously affected because it depends so much on Ukraine and Russia.
The impact of the current situation in Russia and Ukraine will be disastrous because most of what we eat every day comes from Russia or Ukraine.
Countries should look for more friendly solutions instead of taking positions. Only few days this war has already a significant impact on the global production. Consequences on the production of energy, on the production of gold, the production of precious stones, the production of coal, the production of fertilizers, the production of many things necessary for our existence.
Africa will be affected in the coming days, already in South Africa the price of fuel has risen, those who have more or less normal wages are already suffering the consequences of this war. Many African countries, especially those with fragile economies, will be affected because most of them depend largely on Russia for the production of oil, fuel, wheat, sunflower oil and many other things. Beyond who is right and who is wrong in this story we will all suffer the consequences of this disadvantageous war that the Russians and Ukrainians are experiencing.
