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The Russian Federation in the new Middle East

Giancarlo Elia Valori In mid-October of last year, President Trump’s order to leave the Syrian territory as quickly as possible led the Russian military to quickly filling the void left by the U.S. forces. Certainly some U.S. special forces are still operational, but the strategic aim is obviously …

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America’s Great-Power Problems Will Come Back to Haunt It in the Middle East

In the past, when great powers exited a geopolitically critical region, a strategic vacuum ensued. Trump’s hasty withdrawal of troops in Syria, just like his predecessor’s pullout from Iraq, is no exception. When assessing the implications of President Donald Trump’s decision to withdraw some one thousand U.S. servicemen …

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Tension in Hong Kong

Giancarlo Elia Valori After about three months of riots, often particularly violent and destructive, on October 23, 2019 the Chief Executive of Hong Kong, Carrie Lam, alias Chen Yuet-Ngor, withdrew the bill on mandatory extradition to China, which had sparked protests in the former British colony. Never evaluate …

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How the Taliban Won America’s Nineteen-Year War

It is likely that more and more Afghans will start either associating themselves with—or relating to—the Taliban insurgency. As a supporter of the U.S. invasion of Afghanistan, I hoped that we Afghans—in addition to ridding Afghanistan of the Taliban menace—would utilize this opportunity to revive our economy, build …

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Trump Needs to Reestablish Deterrence with Iran

The escalation ladder with Iran has lost several rungs. The attack attributed to Iran on Saudi Aramco oil facilities is the latest in a series of Iranian escalations—the May 14 and June 13 tanker attacks, the June 20 downing of a U.S. drone, and July 19 seizure of …

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North Korea is Missing Its Best Chance for a Deal in a Generation

For a brief moment, North Korea enjoys a dovish, pro-engagement presidency from both its traditional major opponents. If Pyongyang wants a deal, now is the time to go for it. If the North Koreans truly want a deal with their primary opponents – South Korea, Japan, the US, …

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Psychology and indirect strategy

Giancarlo Elia Valori   According to the Greek historian Polybius, Alexander the Great used to say that propaganda “serves to maintain and protect the victories after the cessation of hostilities”. This quote is still an essential key to understand the mechanisms of contemporary propaganda and psyops. The current …

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Trump Prepares America for a Great-Power Competition

Donald Trump is neither a warmonger nor an isolationist. His game plan is to ramp up the pressure and “de-escalate on favorable terms.” And he wants to be prepared for the dangers that may one day exist.\ Forget about getting a backbone. America needs an iron constitution for …

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Arab youth vent their anger at broken economic promises

Andrew England Unemployment and lack of reforms underpin protests in Middle East and north Africa Protesters outside the government palace in Beirut with ‘Revolution’ painted on their faces © AP When Lebanon imposed a fee on WhatsApp calls to boost government coffers, it was another example of Arab …

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