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Could Iran implode?

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By Shehab Al Makahleh

The current pandemonium in the Middle East displays so many poignant chunks as to opaque rudimentary inclinations and processes. Incidents are manifold, coalitions are flimsy and fissiparous, leaving the region in anarchy with makes it impossible to tell what the outcome would be when some regional powers such as Iran implode due to internal and external pressure.

As escalation of protests in the country has reached to an unprecedented level due to aggravating economic and living circumstances, and the Iranian government looks like it is in the middle of a minefield which would implode any time. There are several hidden mines under the feet of the Iranian government, which could explode for any little reason from now on unless the regime handles the current issues with transparency.

How sustainable is the Iranian system under new American and international economic sanctions? What conditions could break the Iranian regime? Some Arab papers debated that the country is already breaking down as this has already started with former Ahmadinejad when he was president. The country has not witnessed any development or transformation at any level.

Hassan Rouhani’s victory over the hardliners has never meant getting rid of the IRGC grip and rule of the country, which badly affected the country’s foreign policy. The National Security Council, the Supreme Leader and the IRGC, mainly, and the Al-Quds Force have been playing dubious role externally, in Iraq, Syria, Yemen and elsewhere, working as rogue operators, leading the country to a precipice, giving no concern to domestic issues such as unemployment and inflation.

When Iran started its nuclear program, huge resources were directed towards atomic activities, challenging people’s lives without creating suitable job openings. This has depleted the country’s oil industry. If the Iranian government had run its oil industries properly, it would have brought the country and the Iranians more benefits than atomic power. What has ignited the implosion in Iran is that though the government is politically efficient, it is economically otherwise.

Implosion hinges on four components

The question is when Iran could implode. To better reach the conclusion, one should take into account four perspectives: The domestic politics, economics, society and foreign affairs. The first three components are the salient and protuberant factors that helped shape the country and its future, while the fourth is tied to the IRGC’s goals.

It was expected from the perspective of political analysis that the recent events in Iran are exploding due to several considerations and reasons that are known to all, as follows:

First: the mullahs’ regime in Iran has exercised too much tyranny and oppression on the Iranian people and since subjugation has reached unprecedented levels even by the standards of authoritarian regimes in the world where the despotic Iranian regime does not show any clemency towards freedom of expression that would alleviate the pressure on people, this would be conducive to many Iranians to strike and start demonstrating against the governmental approach.

Second, economic pretexts are a logical and predictable outcome due to political and economic corruption that prevails in all walks of life in the Iranian society, with unlimited spending on the military and security establishments. Studies show that Iran has spent more than $70 billion in the Syrian war. The amount alone can solve the economic problems in Iran and ameliorate the lives of Iranian people. Such regional intervention in other countries wastes billions of dollars annually.

For those who claim that this uprising is related only to the economic and social aspect, we urge them to review the political slogans recently raised by the Iranian people, including calling for the overthrow of the regime and the fall of the supreme leader. These slogans alone reveal that the economic and social factors cannot be separated from political ones

Shehab Al Makahleh

Third, the social considerations throttle the society and suffocate the young generation due to pressure exercised by the conservative religious establishment, which almost controls cultural and social life. These considerations would drive the Iranian community to implode even if the regime further suppresses and controls the society. If the autocratic regime in Iran is able to control the vast uprisings, it will not secure controlling people’s fury in the future as long as the roots of their vehemence exist, a fact that no one can ignore.

Thus, any prospected strike against the Iranian regime would be a trigger that external powers would use to topple the regime. However, if the repercussions and ramifications of the collapse of a hegemon are not calculated, the domino effect would have negative impact on neighboring countries such as Turkey, Iraq, Azerbaijan, Russia and Central Asia as well as Afghanistan.

Fate of Salvador Allende

For those who claim that this uprising is related only to the economic and social aspect, we urge them to review the political slogans recently raised by the Iranian people, including calling for the overthrow of the regime and the fall of the supreme leader. These slogans alone reveal that the economic and social factors cannot be separated from political ones.

The youth dismay over the American pullout of the nuclear deal with Iran is blamed on the supreme leader and his subordinates, reminding him of the fate of former Chilean President Salvador Allende September 11, 1973, when the Chilean armed forces staged a coup d’état against the government of Allende, ending with his death.

Some analysts believe that the war is coming between Iran and the US, where Israel would be a key player throughout 2018 after the Iranian army and government are weakened due to further economic and financial sanctions on the country and its officials.

Regime change in Iran is diametrically in line with what the neoconservatives’ mantra that espoused foreign entanglements abroad in order to improve the country’s domestic situation really means. The clock is ticking and it sounds that the US, the West and Israel have reached the state of final countdown with Iran.

http://english.alarabiya.net/en/views/news/middle-east/2018/07/14/Could-Iran-implode-.html

 

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