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The Strait of Hormuz as the New Suez Moment

Lexy Reid 20% of the world’s oil passes through the Strait of Hormuz, a small chokepoint whose use is now being massively disrupted by war, drone strikes and the competing interests of great powers. The current Iran War has transformed the Strait of Hormuz from a potential risk …

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The Fragility of Short-Term Gains: Russia, Local Populations, and Strategic Dynamics in the Eastern Mediterranean

Lama Al-Rakad Russia’s recent strategic moves in the Eastern Mediterranean, particularly in coastal areas, highlight a recurring pattern in geopolitics: powers that neglect to empower local populations often achieve only temporary gains. Using George Friedman’s analytical framework, this article examines how Russia’s reliance on direct military and economic …

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The Delayed US-China Summit Is Another Cost of the Iran War

Lyle J. Goldstein The Iran War is distracting the United States from the most pressing issues facing the global order, namely, US-China relations. The costs to the United States of President Donald Trump’s war against Iran are growing both in blood and treasure. The Strait of Hormuz is …

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The Narrow Path to a U.S.‑Iran Deal

Laurence Norman The prospects of a diplomatic deal ending the war between the U.S. and Iran look dim right now. But Middle East veterans say there is a pathway for an agreement if the two sides want to engage. Mediators from Turkey, Egypt and Pakistan are pushing for …

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The United States is Undermining Its Own Objectives in Iran

The US and Israel have continued their offensive in Iran, over three weeks since launching their initial airstrikes. The United States has stated that the strikes were necessary to ensure Iran never possesses nuclear weapons and that its terrorist proxies are not allowed to destabilise the region. The …

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Ballistic Diplomacy: Iran, Diego Garcia, and the Mauritius Concession

Arthur Michelino When Iran launched two ballistic missiles toward Diego Garcia on 20 March 2026, the immediate analytical response focused on what the strike revealed about Iranian missile capability and the erosion of assumed sanctuaries in American power projection. Both observations are legitimate as far as they go. …

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G7 to Press U.S. on Russian Support for Iran Amid Middle East War

Since late February, the United States and Israel have conducted strikes on Iranian targets after nuclear talks failed, triggering Iranian retaliatory attacks on Israel, U.S. bases, and Gulf states. These strikes have also disrupted fuel exports through the Strait of Hormuz, sending energy prices soaring and creating instability …

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Trump Forgot the Strait, and Now America Pays the Price

With Donald Trump back in the White House, and with the administration still selling Operation Epic Fury as a triumph and decisive American power, the gap between performance and policy is impossible to miss. Trump speaks as though force alone can solve whatever he touches. He treats a …

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As Washington Escalates, Beijing Waits: China’s Strategic Silence in the Middle East War

Murad Fatayev Before the United States and Israel launched their operations against Iran on 28 February, international assessments of the possible consequences of war were deeply alarming: catastrophe was the simplest and most comprehensive description of the scenarios being discussed. As of 15 March 2026, the war continues, …

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