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China: Past, Present and Future

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The Chinese are proud people and they have a rich history and culture of which they are so proud. Currently, China is the second largest economy in the world after of course the USA and it has a military power that many countries can be envious of but in recent times China is facing some downturns and economic pitfalls, as well as protests against Xi Jinping’s current regimes, covid lockdown which is kind of out of place in China, considering China has a hard grip over its citizens and has strict surveillance over the country even the super-rich and big private industry are not free from this tight grip.

China’s economic and Global political rise

Prior to 1978, China’s economy was in poor shape but after economic and trade liberalization in 1979 under the leadership of Deng Xiaoping China’s economic rise was meticulous in almost every case be it domestic or international. If we look back at the past from 1953 to 1978 China’s yearly economic growth was 6.7% but after the various economic reforms from 1978 to 2013 China’s economy grew by 9.5%. At the same time as having a growing economy, China was also growing its political influence throughout the world. During the cold war era, China was relatively a minnow in world politics but after the fall of the soviet union in 1991 China began to come to a more prominent role and this was largely possible due to the absence of any global hegemonic power except the USA also USA themselves to some extent helped China in their endeavours for example in 1972 then US president Richard Nixon and foreign secretary Henry Kissinger visited China and recognized mainland China that we know today replacing Taiwan and thus China replaced Taiwan as the permanent member at the UN security council this work of Nixon also led to loosening US economic and trade controls and finally giving China a seat at the WTO in 2001 all of this was done to combat the soviet union but led to the rise of China. This growth of China was pessimistically addressed by John Mearsheimer, the R. Wendell Harrison Distinguished Service Professor at the University of Chicago. According to Mearsheimer in an article titled “The Rise of China Will Not Be Peaceful at All” in The Australian, November 18, 2005 he wrote that ”If China continues its impressive economic growth over the next few decades, the US and China are likely to engage in an intense security competition with considerable potential for war. Most of China’s neighbours, to include India, Japan, Singapore, South Korea, Russia and Vietnam, will join with the US to contain China’s power.” This is just what happened and we are seeing it with our very own eyes although Russia can be Regarded as a friend not per say but rather a well-wisher to China.

The present Status

Currently China is facing economic downturns as well as a series of protest regarding covid lockdowns. According to data given by Asian development bank economic growth of China is expected to be 3.3% amid covid restrictions and is projected to grow 4.5% in 2023. For the coming two years the Chinese growth will be significantly lower than the past this can be attributed to some factors such as Zero covid policy which has downgraded exports significantly also there is the loss of investors due to government crackdowns on tech giants such as ‘Alibaba.com’, according to BBC tencents recent quarter profit fell by 50% and Alibaba’s net income fell half. After being elected a record third time as president in October 2022 at the 20th CCP  congress xi is now giving focus on national security and this can be seen in his politburo standing committee and 24 member central committee which lacks economic expertise and faced departure of premier Li Keqiang who oversaw Chinese economy since the leadership of Hu Jintao. The current committee consists of mainly loyalists like Zeng Youxia who was the vice chairman of the central Military commission who are Xi’s allies and is expected to work to fulfill Xi’s security goals. China  is also facing an nationalist rejuvenation which any regard as ‘The return of Red China” , Kevin Rudd who is the president of Asia society and served as both prime minister and foreign minister of Australia discussed in his article in the ‘Foreign Policy’ Magazine that China is facing ideological shifts and taking policy that are far from economic and mainly focusing on security and military aspects which are somewhat different from the past and  is emphasizing on the Marxist-Leninist methodology it has even been stated in the annual work report of the party given during the congress that the party members are required to have idea on worldview and the methodology of Marxism-Leninism and apply this idea to understand the challenges of current times.

What does the Future Hold?

‘The Belt and Road initiative’(BRI) was Xi’s most prominent project during his first two terms and it can be speculated that in the next five years the project will be on the way to be fulfilled as China is aiming for more economic integration and political economic dominance in the Asian continent also there is the challenge of a economic downturn along with weak domestic demand and swelling debt. And there is the problem of aging population along with low birth rates, growing pension cost and social security expenditure, according to ‘World Economic Forum’ 18.9% which is 267 million people are above 60 years and this may rise to one-third of the population before 2050 and this can be fought by upgrading healthcare system, social welfare and make active aging integral part of economic growth linking health with wealth and common prosperity. Along with domestic challenges Xi’s China will face some global challenges also specially with USA and Taiwan. The Biden administration took recent steps to deter China from becoming world’s largest supplier of semi-conducters and then there is the threat of a war with Taiwan which was provoked by US house speaker Nancy Pelosi’s 2 august Taiwan visit after which created backlash from Chinese authorities and as a response to that China launched 11 ballistic missiles into the waters around China and the current situation is very much uncertain.

China is currently undergoing changes both economically and politically with rise of nationalism and Xi Jinping’s ambition to make China a global power. The world will certainly feel China’s rise in the years to come and wether Xi is in power after five years or not his impact will be felt in Chinese politics and throughout the world.