Syria’s Future – Five Paths That Could Shape the Region

1. A Democratic Republic: A Difficult but Unified Path Forward

This scenario envisions a Democratic Republic of Syria established by a coalition of opposition groups with diverse ideologies. While challenging to achieve, this path could gain support from key international players and promote Syria’s unity and stability.

2. An Islamic State: The Rise of Ideological Governance

This scenario proposes the formation of an “Islamic Republic of Syria,” dominated by Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS). Such governance, rooted in Salafi ideologies, could shift regional dynamics but may deepen internal divides and sectarian tensions.

3. A Strategic State Against Iranian Influence

Here, Syria becomes a bastion against Shia influence, serving the interests of regional players like Israel and their allies. While strategically advantageous for some, this could perpetuate sectarian conflict and hinder national cohesion.

4. A Federal Republic: Fragmentation Under the Guise of Autonomy

This vision sees Syria divided into federations based on ethnicity and sectarian lines, overseen by the United States. While this model may accommodate Syria’s diversity, it risks weakening national unity and sparking competition among regions.

5. Collapse and Chaos: A Return to Civil War

The gravest scenario foresees Syria’s disintegration into chaos, with renewed civil war and the complete collapse of the state. This outcome would devastate the nation and create a haven for extremism and foreign interventions.