Jordan at a Crossroads: Navigating a Treacherous Geopolitical Landscape

Eng. Saleem Al Batayneh

Benjamin Disraeli, the British Prime Minister who held office twice in the 19th century, once remarked, “Major events have unseen tails! What we expect rarely happens! What we rule out often happens!” These words resonate deeply with the current situation in Jordan, where uncertainty looms large, and the nation’s future appears increasingly precarious.

Jordan finds itself at the heart of a volatile geopolitical landscape, surrounded by shifting alliances, political upheavals, and an ever-evolving regional power struggle. The ongoing conflict in Gaza has only intensified these dynamics, leaving Jordan in a state of heightened anxiety. The rapid acceleration of events and the contradictory forces at play suggest that the coming period will be one of significant upheaval, with outcomes that are impossible to predict.

The geopolitical climate in the region is fraught with danger, and Jordan is not immune to its effects. The country’s future is entangled in a web of political intrigue and external pressures that threaten its stability. The challenges Jordan faces are not merely superficial; they are deep-rooted and complex, with far-reaching implications for its demographic and territorial integrity.

The concept of Jordan as we know it is being challenged by external forces. Former U.S. Ambassador Henry T. Wooster once described Jordan as part of a larger map issued by Western and Zionist research centers, with the primary goal of suppressing the Palestinian issue at the expense of Jordan’s identity. Amos Gilboa, a former advisor for Arab affairs in the Israeli Prime Minister’s Office, recently echoed this sentiment, labeling Jordan as an “artificial entity” created by the Sykes-Picot Agreement and suggesting that its existence is expendable in the pursuit of Israeli interests.

Adding to the unease, British journalist David Hearst, in a recent article for Middle East Eye, warned that Jordan could pay a steep price for Netanyahu’s relentless war on Gaza. He highlighted the provocative actions of Israeli extremists, such as Ben Gvir, who are undermining Jordan’s guardianship of holy sites and threatening to build a Jewish synagogue within the Al-Aqsa Mosque.

Jordan’s path forward is fraught with challenges, and the stakes have never been higher. The nation’s stability requires not just political correctness but also a deep understanding of the complexities at play. Jordan must navigate a minefield of geopolitical pressures, resisting the temptation to align with forces that could compromise its sovereignty and identity.

The internal dynamics within Israel add another layer of complexity. The political landscape in Israel is dominated by right-wing factions, with even those in the opposition, like Lieberman and Moshe Ya’alon, exhibiting extremist views. Israel’s aggressive posturing in the region, coupled with its attempts to coerce Jordan into its security, demographic, and economic projects, poses a significant threat to Jordan’s future.

Unfortunately, Jordan remains at a standstill, seemingly unaware of the dangers that lie ahead. The nation cannot afford to be complacent. It must avoid being drawn into polarizations or tempted by offers that could lead to its downfall. The region’s struggles, whatever their form, will be violent and destructive, and Jordan must be prepared to confront the challenges head-on.

The reality is stark: the planned changes to Jordan’s geography and demography are not mere speculation but rather the result of a calculated strategy to implement the remaining terms of the so-called “deal of the century.” The consequences for Jordan could be dire, leading the nation down a path to nowhere.

In these perilous times, Jordan must break free from the closed circle of complacency and prepare to confront the looming threats. The future may be uncertain, but one thing is clear: the stakes for Jordan have never been higher, and the time for decisive action is now. The question is whether Jordan can rise to the challenge and secure its future in an increasingly hostile world.

Engineer Al-Batayneh, Former Member of the Jordanian Parliament