Is Washington Serious About Leaving Iraq?

Erika Larsson

As tensions flare across the Middle East, the question of whether the United States is serious about withdrawing its military presence from Iraq looms large. With growing calls from within Iraq for a U.S. exit and the region heating up after the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh, the leader of Hamas, the situation has become even more complex. The Biden administration finds itself at a critical crossroads, balancing domestic pressures with the volatile dynamics of the region.

The U.S. military presence in Iraq has been a contentious issue for years, but recent developments have brought it to the forefront. Washington’s support for Israel in its ongoing conflict with Hamas has further inflamed anti-American sentiment across the region. Hezbollah has intensified its strikes on Israel, while groups aligned with Palestinian militants have begun targeting U.S. military assets. The recent drone strike in Jordan that killed three American soldiers is a stark reminder of the escalating risks.

In response to these attacks, some U.S. lawmakers have called for a more aggressive stance, including direct action against Iran, which they believe is backing these militant groups. Senator Lindsey Graham has criticized past U.S. retaliations as insufficient and has advocated for strikes against targets within Iran. Others, like Senator John Cornyn, have echoed these sentiments, demanding a strong response.

The Biden administration faces a difficult decision. On one hand, there is a clear need to respond to the loss of American lives and the increasing threats to U.S. personnel in the region. On the other hand, escalating military action could lead to a broader conflict, something the administration has repeatedly stated it wants to avoid.

Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammad Shia al-Sudani has called for a “quick and orderly negotiated exit” of U.S.-led coalition forces from Iraq. With only 2,500 U.S. troops remaining, primarily in advisory roles, the Iraqi government views their presence as increasingly destabilizing, especially in light of the broader regional conflict. While Iraq has the legal right to request the withdrawal of foreign troops, Sudani has not yet set a deadline, leaving the future of U.S. forces in the country uncertain.

The strategic implications of a U.S. withdrawal are significant. A departure could be seen as a victory for Tehran, which has long sought to reduce American influence in the region. For the Biden administration, any move that might be perceived as backing down could have serious political consequences, especially in an election year. The memory of President Jimmy Carter’s loss to Ronald Reagan, following the Iranian hostage crisis, looms large, and Biden’s opponents are likely to use any perceived weakness against him.

Iran would undoubtedly celebrate a U.S. withdrawal as a major win, particularly in the wake of the Gaza conflict. The assassination of Mushtaq Talib Al-Saedi, a senior commander in the Iranian-backed Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF), has already heightened tensions, leading to increased calls within Iraq for the U.S. to leave. Tehran’s influence in Iraq and the wider region would likely grow if the U.S. were to pull out, further destabilizing the Middle East.

The recent sanctions imposed by the U.S. and the United Kingdom on Iranian individuals and entities involved in transnational repression highlight the ongoing struggle between Washington and Tehran. While these sanctions are intended to curb Iran’s behavior, their effectiveness remains in question. The real test will come in how the Biden administration handles the situation on the ground in Iraq and the broader Middle East.

In conclusion, the decision to withdraw U.S. forces from Iraq is fraught with complexity and potential consequences. As Washington grapples with the escalating situation in the Middle East, the stakes are high. The Biden administration must navigate a delicate balance between responding to threats and avoiding a larger conflict, all while considering the political implications at home. The world is watching, and the future of U.S. involvement in Iraq—and the region—hangs in the balance.