Geostrategic Media Political Commentary, Analysis, Security, Defense
The upcoming Jordanian parliamentary elections, scheduled for September 10, 2024, will take place against the backdrop of a complex and evolving electoral system. According to the latest information, the 130-seat House of Representatives will consist of 115 members elected through open list proportional representation from 23 constituencies of varying sizes, ranging from three to nine seats. Additionally, 15 seats are reserved for women, with the woman receiving the most votes in each of the twelve governorates and the three Badia districts being awarded these seats.
Implications of the Electoral System
The open list proportional representation system used for the majority of seats is likely to favor larger and more organized political parties, particularly Islamist groups, in their ability to mobilize voters and secure a significant share of the vote. The reserved seats for Christian, Chechen, and Circassian minorities, as well as the women’s seats, could potentially provide some balance and representation for these communities, but their overall impact on the composition of the parliament remains to be seen.
Surge in Islamist Influence
Building on the surge of pro-Palestinian and anti-Israel sentiment among Jordanian voters following the 2023 Gaza-Israel conflict, Islamist parties and candidates are widely expected to capitalize on this dynamic and secure a landslide victory in the upcoming elections. Their effective messaging, grassroots mobilization, and positioning as the champions of the Palestinian cause had resonated with a significant portion of the electorate, who have grown disillusioned with the perceived failure of traditional secular and liberal parties to adequately address their concerns. A special survey was conducted which reflected that many eastern jordanians will vote for those who are with Hamas against Israel regardless of the Jordanian government’s official position.
Potential Domestic and Regional Implications
The anticipated Islamist dominance in the Jordanian parliament is likely to have significant implications, both domestically and regionally. Within Jordan, it could result in a shift in the government’s foreign policy, with a greater emphasis on the Palestinian cause and a more confrontational stance towards Israel. This could potentially strain Jordan’s delicate regional and international relationships, particularly with its key allies, such as the United States and Israel.
Domestically, the Islamist surge may also lead to increased political tensions and polarization, as the traditional secular and liberal parties struggle to adapt to the new political landscape. The ability of the Islamist-led government to address the country’s pressing economic and social challenges, which have contributed to the public’s disillusionment, will also be closely watched.
Ongoing Monitoring and Analysis
Given the complexity of the Jordanian electoral system and the broader regional dynamics at play, ongoing monitoring and analysis of the political, economic, and social developments in the country will be crucial in the lead-up to and aftermath of the September 10, 2024 parliamentary elections. This will help to gain a comprehensive understanding of the impact of the anticipated Islamist surge and its implications for Jordan’s future.
