Geostrategic Media Political Commentary, Analysis, Security, Defense
The Biden administration is locking itself into a dangerous pattern in its relations with Israel. The White House states concerns, makes exhortations and requests, but avoids any threats of concrete consequences if Israel ignores its wishes.
President Biden’s initiative to have the U.S. military build a temporary port in Gaza to deliver relief supplies, announced on March 7 during the annual State of the Union address, has the potential to eventually contribute to resolving the food shortage in the strip. But it essentially sidesteps the immediate urgency of the problem and delays the brewing confrontation between the Biden administration and the Netanyahu government over Palestinian refugees in Gaza.
U.S. officials stressed that “we are not waiting on the Israelis,” and in that sense, the United States is breaking with Israel by not asking permission. Yet, another way to look at this is that it avoids the need for the United States to force Israel to allow greater volumes of aid to come into Gaza via existing border crossings. That would be a much more helpful solution given the immediacy of the need and the fact that it will take nearly two months for the temporary port to get set up and start functioning. However, given Netanyahu’s failure to respond to repeated requests from Biden for increased throughput in a manner that sustainably delivers it, this would probably require Biden to threaten some conditions on U.S. supplies to Israel, which he remains unwilling to do.
The port project itself also is fraught with potential problems. The Biden administration has asserted that no U.S. military personnel will go ashore in Gaza to unload or deliver aid or to provide security. Still, their presence in waters very near the Gaza coast could put them within range of Hamas weapons. It also has been reported that U.S. contractor personnel could be involved in organizing the distribution of supplies once they reach the pier, which would require them to go ashore. The operation also would reportedly rely on Israeli forces to provide security onshore, while Palestinians would distribute the aid and move it to recipients.
This raises potential problems. A recent convoy of aid on trucks that came into Gaza from the north, escorted by Israeli forces, ended up sparking a melee in which over 100 people were killed as desperate Palestinians rushed the trucks. Also, given the apparent foot-dragging by the Netanyahu government over facilitating increased volumes of supplies coming in by land, can we be sure Israel will facilitate increased supplies coming in?
That question inevitably ties in with Netanyahu’s stated desire to undertake a military offensive into Rafah, where substantial Hamas forces and probably Hamas leadership remain. He has said the offensive will go forward, even as President Biden has said that doing so without a viable plan to move the more than one million Palestinian refugees crammed into the city was unacceptable to the U.S.” It remains highly unclear, however, whether or not the Biden administration would finally be willing to impose any substantive penalties on Israel—in terms of military supplies or otherwise—in Israel ignores U.S. concerns about the potential for a humanitarian disaster and possibly forcing refugees into Egypt as a result of a Rafah offensive. Several U.S. officials told Politico yesterday that the United States would consider conditioning U.S. military aid to Israel in a case where Israel defied the White House on Rafah. However, National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan forcefully denied yesterday morning that there were any “red lines.” “The president didn’t make any declarations or pronouncements or announcements” in last weekend’s interview, according to Sullivan.
The pattern seems to be repeating U.S. behavior since the beginning of the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza—the Biden administration is stating concerns, making exhortations and requests, but avoiding any threats of concrete consequences if Israel ignores its wishes. In that context, the Gaza port initiative looks like an attempt to prevent policy differences with Israel being brought to a head. The United States is now “doing something” for starving Palestinians with an impact two months away, but only if Israel chooses to facilitate it when the U.S. equipment arrives after having previously failed to facilitate adequate supplies by land, despite repeated pleas from Biden.
Even with the potential for a humanitarian disaster looming in Rafah, which could also do severe damage to American interests in the region and possibly lead to a wider war, the Biden administration is backing off from any suggestion that it even has any “red lines.” As Netanyahu observed in an infamous open microphone incident in 2001, “America is something that can easily be moved.” Until the Biden administration finds its spine and stops avoiding confrontation, we can expect that Netanyahu will continue to ignore the United States and our national interests.
