Geostrategic Media Political Commentary, Analysis, Security, Defense
Eng. Saleem Al Batayneh
You do not need to be a Palestinian to stand in solidarity with the Palestinian cause. Every Arab and every free person in the world has a story with Palestine. For 75 years, when it has been at the heart of the event, it has almost disappeared from memory, as if the Palestinians were destined to be eternal victims of international ineffectualness and Zionist-American arrogance amidst Arab weakness.
The event was not expected in terms of timing, but it was certainly consistent with the level of circumstances thereto. The unexpected event changes the equation. What happened irreversibly changed the entire geopolitical map in the history of the Palestinian issue, and placed the world at the helm of recognizing an issue that had reached a zero-sum stage, which requires a solution. It is the issue of a people whose land was purloined and who were prevented from expressing their national and national personality after they were removed from the conflict equation.
The Battle of October 7 imposed a new reality in the history of the Arab-Israeli conflict, without trespassing on the Palestinian people and their rights, even if the brothers colluded. There is a cause of a people resisting the occupation which proves Palestinians are still strongly present, and their cause is alive, inalienable and irrevocable. It is the only one capable of uniting and mobilizing the Arab peoples from the ocean to the Gulf.
With the start of the battle, assessments multiplied and comments conflicted with many contradictory interpretations of this heroic operation as it was an operation that exceeded all calculations of realistic, rational logic and was outside the usual contexts. The operation had shaken the region, changed the dynamic of the conflict with Israel, and undermined the American strategy for managing the region. The most important was breaking Israel’s superior arrogance and degrading its dignity.
Therefore, it can be called the most prominent event of the twenty-first century.
The consequences of the Al-Aqsa Flood operation, unprecedented in scale, will have repercussions and results of strategic dimensions, not only at the level of the conflict in the region, but will extend to the internal front in Israel, and to the entire Middle East region, in which the rules of the game and the conflict will inevitably change.
The situation cannot return to what it was before the battle. Many read the events and evaluate them from one angle, especially if that angle is narrow and sharp! Reading the scene in Gaza does not stop at the borders of hit and run because if we do so, the reading will remain superficial and naive! Consequently, we will miss basic data and backgrounds from which we will not recover until after the war has ended.
A realistic reading of the scene falls under the heading of understanding the terms of the deal of the century, and the modern geopolitical and economic changes and alignments such as the path of the new Northern Economic Corridor that connects the Gulf to Europe, and connects India to the Gulf states. It seems that what is coming is more dangerous and there is a climate of ambiguity that is proceeding perfectly, a visual about emptying Gaza of its people and the West Bank of its residents. There are announced and unannounced approaches and maps to completely change the shape of the region!
What is happening in Gaza today is much greater than eliminating Hamas, and its goal was and still is to empty the land of its population and push them to move to neighboring countries. There are indications that the Gaza battle is part of a grand plan whose external dimensions have not been completed.
According to the English-language German electronic news website Spiegl Online International, it was pointed out that after the beginning of the battle, there was a consensus between Israel and some of the Palestinian leaders at home and abroad, and significant Arab leaders, to get rid of the Gaza rift, which represents a thorn in the side of Israel. The website recalls an article published by The New York Times on October 27, 2023, by the former American envoy to the Middle East, Dennis Ross, who said that an Arab official, whose name was anonymous, asked Ross privately about the necessity of destroying and liquidating the Hamas movement.
The Spanish newspaper Mundo Deportivo also indicated the involvement of Arab countries in financing military mercenaries from various countries of the world to fight with the Israelis against the Palestinian resistance via countries contracting with the Black Shield company for security services.
We are still watching! Those who were waiting for Hassan Nasrallah to declare war were wrong, and that his speech would bring surprises that would change the game on the ground because Iran, in light of the weakness of the Arab political position, has a broad vision for managing chaos within the region of a geopolitical chessboard of exclusion.
It is very clear that there are no signs of a ceasefire or the raising of white flags on the horizon! Until this moment, Israel does not know what it wants: there is a consensus among them that they have been subjected to a strategic defeat that requires a change in the course of events that has not been announced yet! It will not rush into negotiations because it realizes that the price it will pay will be very high, and it still rejects any initiatives that are not carried out according to its conditions and vision while retaining the idea of this paradigm.
Personally, I am not a fan of conspiracy theories. My view is certainly not pessimistic and is not tied to emotional equations, far from any preconceived positions or judgments. However, I have a question that puts me in front of difficult choices, and I believe that the answer is somewhat uncertain: Did Hamas ignore balance, even relatively? Did the movement fall into a trap set according to more plans? Was its operation deliberate, and did it calculate in its calculations, which would result in a harsh response from Israel? Or were they surprised by the results?
Regardless of the response and answers, there will only be one logical answer among them, which is that Hamas was able to pose a challenge to Israel, and the movement’s elimination became an unachievable goal. Hamas’ battle established a historical stage for the fate of the countries of the region.
When the big questions are absent, it is then difficult to talk about conspiracy thinking and question the nature of the occurrence of events, as public opinion in the Arab street has proven its ability to impose new limits! Normalization should be lost again because it is linked to the rights of the Palestinian people. Here, everyone must realize that the victory of the Palestinian resistance in Gaza and the West Bank is a Jordanian, Egyptian, Palestinian, Lebanese, and Syrian interest.
After Gaza, humanity will fall! The battle will end with catastrophic casualties!! But from the core of despair will arise, as the poet Al-Jawahiri, may God have mercy on him, said: “A generation that desires courage, is tyrannical and stubborn, and will exchange what is for what is hoped for, and will be sympathetic to what it wants for what it wants’. Everyone will remember the saying (I ate the day the white bull was eaten), but after it’s too late.
Eng. Al Batayneh was a member of the Jordanian Parliament.
