Pakistan’s interests and obstacles in mediating relations between Iran and the Saudi Arabia

Farzad Ramezani Bonesh

Senior Researcher and Analyst of International Affairs

 From the beginning of Imran Khan’s rising to power, efforts have been made by Islamabad to mediate between Iran and Saudi Arabia. The following article discusses Pakistan’s interests and obstacles in playing a mediating role and reducing tensions in current Iran-Saudi Arabia relations.

Pakistan’s interests in mediation in Iran-Saudi relations

Helping to solve Kashmir issue: The situation in Kashmir affects Pakistan’s efforts as an intermediary. The focus of the Pakistani government and army is on Kashmir, and the country’s foreign policy needs to draw more attention by Islamic countries and their effective opposition to India’s approach to Kashmir.

If Khan takes on the role of facilitating the normalizing of the Iran-Saudi Arabia relations, it will help Pakistan bring the issue of Kashmir to the attention of most Islamic countries and Iran and Saudi Arabia, and benefit from their support in tension with India.

Pakistan’s regional interests: In a point of view, the competition between Iran and Saudi Arabia has had a negative impact on Pakistan by increasing violence and proxy wars in the region.

Therefore, normalization in Saudi-Iranian relations could solve many of the region’s security and political problems and could benefit Pakistan in its regional interests.

Imran Khan’s personal and party position: The process of mediation, or even its positive outcome, could increase the credibility of Imran Khan in his party and internationally, and even his seeking for the Nobel Peace Prize.

Positive internal consequences: Pakistan is religiously diverse. Among the population of more than 200 million people, mostly Sunnis, there is a significant Shiite minority. Internal Consequences of the conflict between Sunni Saudi Arabia and Shiite Iran is an important internal threat for Pakistan. Therefore, Islamabad’s efforts to normalizing of Iran-Saudi Arabia relations can be pursued with the aim of calming down the atmosphere inside Pakistan.

Avoiding the hard decision of choosing one side (between Iran and Saudi Arabia): The rivalry between Iran and Saudi Arabia has put Pakistan in a very difficult position. It is very difficult for Pakistanis to choose one side. That is why Pakistan is trying to take a neutral position. Or at least pretend to have close ties with Saudi Arabia, but still want a balanced policy in its relations with both sides. In this situation, mediation helps to avoid difficult choice of choosing one side.

Security: The escalating conflict could affect Pakistan’s energy security. 90% of Pakistan’s energy comes from the Persian Gulf. Iran and Pakistan share about 900 kilometers of the vulnerable border.

The risk of the negative effects of further Iran-Saudi tensions on drug trafficking, border security, and the presence of radical groups could be a significant variable in Islamabad’s focus on reducing tensions between Saudi Arabia and Iran.

Helping the domestic economy:  Pakistan has a sick economy. Millions of Pakistani workers are working in Saudi Arabia and the Arab world, importing billions of dollars in foreign currency into Pakistan each year. Any escalation of tensions could send millions of Pakistanis home.

In addition, the low level of economic relations compared to the population is one of the most important challenges in Iran-Pakistan relations. In these circumstances, Islamabad’s fear of Saudi Arabia’s reaction to the expansion of economic relations with Iran is important.

Therefore, mediation between Saudi Arabia and Iran, in addition to maintaining economic relations with Saudi Arabia, can help effectively exploit the economic context of relations with Iran, such as the implementation of the gas transmission project and increase the level of economic relations.

Saudi Arabia is also a major strategic ally of Pakistan. Pakistan also needs interest-free loans, strengthening foreign exchange reserves, and new investment of amount $ 20 billion. In these circumstances, helping to normalize relations could guarantee the stability and security of the implementation of any important and successful domestic economic program in Pakistan.

The importance of both countries in Pakistan’s foreign policy: In fact, Pakistan was an ally of Tehran at the time of the Shah of Iran and a member of the Santo Pact. In addition, Pakistan has had strategic relation with Saudi Arabia from long time ago.

In recent decades, one of Pakistan’s challenges has been to maintain a balance in relations with Iran and Saudi Arabia, So that Saudi Arabia and Iran are not offended by this issue and do not demand concessions and, in a way, maximum demands from Pakistan.

However, Pakistan’s relations with Saudi Arabia have been closer than Iran in recent decades. So because of that, Riyadh has always expected Pakistan directly or indirectly to raise the level of its relations with Saudi Arabia and reduce the scope of its relations with Iran. So it is difficult for Pakistanis to manage this issue and they have been looking for a solution to reduce tensions.

Pakistan avoids being seen as pro-Saudi and anti-Iranian. Therefore, pursuing the role of mediator strengthens Pakistan’s neutrality. Also pursuing mediation between Iran and Saudi Arabia helps Pakistan in achieving its interests.

Obstacles facing Pakistan

Developments over the past few years, such as the burning of the Saudi embassy, ​​the execution of Sheikh Nimr al-Nimr in Saudi Arabia, drone strikes on Saudi Aramco facilities, the attack on an Iranian tanker in the Red Sea, and major regional and international disputes such as Yemen, Iraq and others have affected relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia.

Also, regional and international disputes, competition in the field of energy in OPEC, etc. is continuing. These differences are, in fact, important obstacles to Pakistan’s efforts to normalize relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia.

In the other dimension, the three main factors in Pakistan’s foreign policy are governments rising from parties, the army and Islamic parties. But Pakistan cannot ignore the benefits of a relationship with Saudi Arabia, given its strategic dependence and partnership.

In fact, if Riyadh puts more pressure on Pakistan, in practice, Islamabad will not be able to act as a mediator and will lean towards Riyadh. In other words, Imran Khan’s first choice between Tehran and Riyadh is the second.

It also seems that Imran Khan should be given a real opportunity to mediate between Iran and Saudi Arabia. In fact, the differences between the two old rivals are deep-rooted. If Tehran and Riyadh do not take practical action, Pakistan’s actions will be ineffective.

Vision:

So far, other countries have tried to resolve the Iran-Saudi issue. Pakistan has also been working to reduce tensions since the 1980s. At the same time, since it is in the interest of Pakistan, Islamabad’s efforts to mediate between Tehran and Riyadh with the aim of reducing tensions between Iran and Saudi Arabia appear to be continuing.  In fact, if Pakistan fails to reduce the strategic and fundamental differences between the two sides, it can certainly neutralize many of immediate, periodic, and event-based tensions.

After all, the start of negotiations is a great achievement for Pakistan, and the green lights of Tehran and Riyadh, even in resolving some minor cases, could be an important step in easing tensions in other areas with Pakistan’s help. In fact, tensions seem to make it impossible to resolve crises in the short term, but even little achievement in reducing tensions would be in the interests of Pakistan.