Geostrategic Media Political Commentary, Analysis, Security, Defense
The fate of the deal of the century is unknown as the deal continuous running into problems. The West struggles with new plans to put the deal into operation, but these plans can be easily derailed if the right strategies are adopted.
The deal, initially proposed by the United States President Donald Trump and his allies, targets the conflict between Palestine and Israel, but instead of solving the problem, it aims to delete it by trying to remove Palestine altogether. The deal was first suggested around a year ago, but to the Washington’s surprise, it has not yet come to any conclusion.
The deal has been designed based on Trump’s business outlook to everything and seeks to solve the issue by luring in the Palestinians with offering economic rewards. In fact, the deal has regarded one of the most important issues in the world as a commodity that can be traded and has paid no attention to the humanitarian side of the problem and coming up with a just solution that respects the rights of all people involved in the issue.
The future prospect of the Deal of the Century
According to the Deal of the Century, the Palestinians will be settled only in Gaza Strip and some parts of the West Bank. The deal will cancel the return of displaced Palestinians who currently live in other countries (mostly Arab countries like Lebanon and Jordan) to their homeland and they have to remain in their residing country. The plan also envisages assigning $10 billion for development of the remnants of Palestine by building industrial towns, new cities, airports, and ports in the Gaza Strip.
The deal doesn’t move Israelis out of the Palestinian lands they invaded in 1976, including the West Bank and the area around Al-Quds. In this deal, U.S. has offered Abu Dis village, in the east of Al-Quds (Jerusalem), as the new capital of Palestine. In return, Israel would retreat from three to five Palestinian villages around Al-Quds that were occupied by Israel usurper regime in 1976.
However, the old part of Al-Quds will remain under the sovereignty of Israel.
According to Amos Harel, the journalist of an Israeli news agency, Haaretz, the Deal does not give any suggestions for retreatment of Israelis from their current residential areas including the settlements in Ariel, southern Nablus, Gush Etzion (near Bethlehem) and Ma’ale Adumim.
Trump’s plan is a shrunk Palestine that has no army or weapons to defend itself.
The essence of the Deal of the Century is not negotiation; conversely, it aims to force the terms and conditions of Israel and the U.S. on the Palestinians. It is not a mutual deal, but a one-sided one, so it cannot be regarded as an offer for reconciliation.
Over the past year, everything Washington did about the Palestine issue were unilateral actions that led to the Deal of the Century. These actions included recognition of Al-Quds as the capital of the Israel, transferring American embassy from Tel Aviv to Al-Quds, closing the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East (UNRWA), stopping the usage of the word “refugee” for displaced Palestinians and trying to settle them down in other Arab countries.
Possible future scenarios of the Deal of the Century
1.The failure of the deal
According to this scenario, the deal will fail. As described above, the Deal of the Century is a completely pro-Israel deal, so any of the Palestinian groups, even the ones who are in favor of reconciliation will not accept this deal.
If the Palestinians resist the deal, they can derail it. Over the last 70 of Israel-Palestine conflict, tens of similar plans for reconciliation were thwarted. On the other hand, it is unlikely that Arab countries pressure Palestine to accept the deal as the current trend is against the deal.
2.Carrying out the deal after making concessions to Palestine and Arab countries
In this scenario, the Americans and the Israelis will stop dictating their demands on Palestine and will suspend their interference in Palestine’s core issues such as the fate of Al-Quds, the Palestinian refugees and the ownership of lands.
This will definitely be a victory for the Palestinians and Arab countries, as a new deal with new terms will be derived out of the previous deal.
For example, Israel may become less strict over Palestine ruling over the West Bank and Palestine may gain more control over the eastern areas of the Al-Quds. Some older parts of Al-Quds can be jointly run by Palestine and Israel.
Also, Tel Aviv may stop building new residential areas over the West Bank and stop expanding the current settlements.
It will also be agreed that a Palestinian government will be established over a short time-frame and some rules will be revised including the ones about Palestine’s sovereignty over some lands and its economic independence. The siege of the Gaza Strip will stop, new ports and airports will be built and a safe route will be established between the West Bank and the Gaza Strip.
According to this scenario, the Palestinian Islamic Resistance Movement, Hamas will hand over the control of the Gaza Strip to Palestinian National Authority in Ramallah and a proper environment will be established for resuming the reconciliation process.
3.The success of the Deal of the Century according to the terms and conditions forced by the U.S. and Israel.
According to this scenario, U.S. will threaten the Arab countries to stop helping them in dealing with their regional conflicts and even in dealing with their own nations. Also, Washington will threaten Mahmoud Abbas, the President of the Palestinian National Authority with getting him removed and replacing him with someone who would agree to their all terms and conditions.
Considering all the above options, it seems that the first scenario is more likely to happen as all Palestinian groups are against the deal and the resistant Palestinian groups are in full power; also, many Arab countries are against the deal and the U.S. itself is not confident about its foreign policies in the Middle East.
There are other reasons to assume that the Deal of the Century will fail. the operation of the deal has been long delayed; furthermore, over this time, many demonstrations and groups have showed their opposition to the deal, an example is the “return demonstrations” that have been held every week over the Gaza Strip over the past year.
Despite all the oppositions in thwarting the Deal of the Century, stopping the deal still needs more effort, some strategies are suggested here.
Strategies to stop the Deal of the Century
Developing Palestinians’ national unity and concentrating all their powers in order to thwart the deal.
Writing a declaration that will bind all Palestinians to commit to upholding the principles and goals of the Palestinian nation and rejects any treaty that would violate their rights, including the Deal of the Century.
Saving the Palestine National Reconciliation Agreement which was signed in 2011 and Beirut Agreement which was signed in 2017. Plus running Palestine National Council in order to revive the Palestinian National Authority and Palestine Liberation Organization in order to join all forces to serve Palestine’s national interests.
Quick removal of the sanctions imposed by Mahmoud Abbas on Gaza Strip.
Inviting all Palestinians to unite under a single leadership, so that they can use all their powers to defend the rights of the Palestinians until Palestine Liberation Organization is reconstructed.
Encouraging public-based organizations, groups, and societies inside and outside of Palestine.
Stopping any kind of military and security cooperation with Israeli usurpers.
Increasing people’s freedom in the areas under the control of the Palestinian National Authority in order to maintain the dignity of Palestinian residents and use their unified will for making political, social and military progress.
