Donald Trump’s Ukraine War Endgame Comes Into Focus

In all but name, the Ukraine War is over—and further NATO expansion is likely over, too. Only time will tell if Russia is content with this resolution.

The Trump administration has made it clear: they are negotiating an end of the seemingly interminable Ukraine War without Ukrainian inputs. Kyiv, which was accustomed to the White House’s deference under President Joe Biden, will simply have to accept whatever the American and Russian leaders decide to do about the war. Already, Trump administration officials have stated that Kyiv must prepare itself for making territorial concessions—as well as for the fact that they will never be allowed into NATO.

Considering that Ukraine would not have been able to fight Russia at all without the military aid provided to it by the NATO members—notably the United States—it seems somewhat absurd to think that Ukraine would even get a seat at the table. After all, they are essentially America’s proxy in the fight against Russia. They’ve deferred repeatedly to U.S. and NATO battlefield guidance.

Why, then, does Kyiv now resist American diplomatic guidance?

Vladimir Putin has already stated that the war will only end if the reasons for why he initiated the invasion in the first place are addressed. Primarily, the reason that Russia invaded Ukraine was over fears that Ukraine was going to become part of the NATO military alliance and be used by NATO as a forward base for missiles that could threaten the Russian Federation. The first steps have been taken by the Trump administration to address those concerns.

That’s why, in no uncertain terms, the White House declared Ukraine would not be welcomed into NATO. Ever.

Ukraine Doesn’t Even Qualify for NATO Membership

To be fair, Ukraine could not technically be admitted into the alliance under current conditions because there are open territorial disputes. Because of Article 5 of the NATO Charter, NATO bylaws make it impossible for a new nation to become a member if they are in conflict with another country. After all, if countries in open conflict were allowed into NATO, it would unfairly obligate the alliance to wade into the fight on behalf of the new member.

That did not stop NATO from supporting Ukraine in extreme ways throughout the three-year conflict. But its efforts were likely in vain: Kyiv will most probably be forced to concede as much as 20 percent of its country to the Russian Army.

Trump’s Phone Call with Vladimir Putin

There remain a great many questions in the minds of almost everyone involved as to how the Ukraine War negotiations will go about. Trump has stated that, after talking to Putin for 90 minutes on the phone, the two are tentatively scheduled to meet in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. No specific date has been set, but Trump has assured the media the meeting will occur soon. During their call, the two presidents discussed the possibility of two more summits following the inevitable meeting in Riyadh, one of which would be hosted in Russia and the other in the United States.

Even before the Trump-Putin call, the American president made clear his intention to end the Ukraine War. He even admitted that Ukraine “might” one day soon become part of Russia (which, of course, is a dream of Russian imperialist-nationalists) in an interview before the Super Bowl with Fox News’ Bret Baier.

One Way or Another, The War Will End

The fact is that the Ukraine War is over. Trump has not come out and said this explicitly. But, in thought and deeds, the Americans under Trump have ensuredthat the war cannot be fought on. What’s more, the Russians have defeated Ukraine. By extension, Moscow has beaten NATO, too. At the very least, this is what Putin’s government will tell its people.

To much of the world, this will be the takeaway as well. There are many who will not want to hear this. But, judging how the war has been going, without negotiations, the Russians will have defeated the Ukrainians on the battlefield. This is why Ukraine will seek a negotiated settlement, even one that cedes most, if not all, of the territory that Russia has captured: a humiliating peace would be preferable to a total battlefield defeat of Ukraine by the Russian Armed Forces.

There’s more, though.

Trump May Have Just Quietly Pulled Out of NATO

At a meeting with NATO leaders, Secretary Hegseth urged the Europeans to do more for their end of collective defense. One thing that Europe cannot do is look to the United States for continued commitment to their defense.

This is hardly an unreasonable statement, considering the combined GDP of Europe is approaching $19 trillion. As home to some of the oldest countries in the world, Europe is a technologically advanced place, too. There is really no excuse for why they cannot seem to uphold the military commitments that they insist are key to their own national survival and regional security.

Instead, though, Europe’s NATO members continue looking across the Atlantic to Uncle Sam, who is currently preoccupied with his own problems in the Indo-Pacific.

Hegseth’s comments to his fellow NATO defense chiefs were even more important than the comments from the Trump administration about the Ukraine War. Hegseth, speaking for President Trump, told the Europeans that “Uncle Sam would not be Uncle Sucker.” Essentially Hegseth told the Europeans that they were on their own. These words were specifically in the context of the Ukraine War, but everyone at the meeting could read between the lines. If, as the Europeans are arguing, the Russians intend on moving beyond Ukraine in the next decade, the likelihood that the United States would do much to stop Moscow is low, regardless of whatever NATO guarantees the United States has agreed to over the years.

By making everyone in NATO doubt America’s commitment to Article V, Trump was letting them know that the NATO alliance, at the very least, was being put on ice until further notice.

So, the Ukraine War is over—and NATO expansion, Russia’s professed reason for starting the war, is likely over, too. In principle, this means that Putin’s aggression should end. Only time will tell if he decides to push deeper into Europe—and if Europe can actually use its immense wealth and technology to become a reliable military force that can deter the Russians.

About the Author: Brandon J. Weichert

Brandon J. Weichert, a Senior National Security Editor at The National Interest as well as a Senior Fellow at the Center for the National Interest, and a contributor at Popular Mechanics, consults regularly with various government institutions and private organizations on geopolitical issues. Weichert’s writings have appeared in multiple publications, including the Washington Times, National Review, The American Spectator, MSN, the Asia Times, and countless others. His books include Winning Space: How America Remains a Superpower, Biohacked: China’s Race to Control Life, and The Shadow War: Iran’s Quest for Supremacy. His newest book, A Disaster of Our Own Making: How the West Lost Ukraine is available for purchase wherever books are sold. He can be followed via Twitter @WeTheBrandon.

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