Geostrategic Media Political Commentary, Analysis, Security, Defense
Donald Trump is back in the White House as the USA’s 47th president with a long to-do list, and cementing his legacy in the Middle East is one of his top priorities. As Israel and Hamas agreed on a multiphase ceasefire last month, Trump publicly declared that he would leverage the momentum of the recently established ceasefire agreement in Gaza to broaden the Abraham Accords and use the diplomatic space for renewed Saudi-Israeli normalization deal.
In his first term, Trump celebrated the signing of Abraham Accords as the Deal of the Century, by initiating a new era of open diplomacy between Israel and four Arab nations – Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Morocco and Sudan. Trade between the Abraham Accords countries increased from almost nothing in 2019 to an estimated US$ 10 billion between 2020 and 2023, before a downward spiral due to the October 2023 attack on Israel by Hamas and the ensuing war in Gaza.
The war came as a litmus test for the Abraham Accords. After 15 months, none of the signatories retracted from their normalization agreements or shut down their embassy, and no links were permanently severed. Even though the Biden administration had committed themselves to expanding the Abraham Accords, by surviving the war, the Abraham Accords have de-hyphenated the Arab-Israel ties from the Palestinian conflict, providing a foundation for regional peace that transcends any particular crisis. Although disagreements over the Palestinian question will continue to complicate ties and slow down the peace deal, they would not derail or stop the accords.
Saudi Arabia and Abraham Accords: In his second term, Trump will start from where he left off and resume talks for the Israel-Saudi Arabia deal as a priority. On his inauguration day on January 20, Trump told the reporters at the Oval Office that “I think Saudi Arabia will end up being in the Abraham accords. … Soon. Not a very long way.”
In September 2023, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) said that Riyadh was seriously considering establishing full diplomatic relations with Israel, following similar actions by other Gulf nations such as UAE. But when the conflict in Gaza broke out in October 2023, the agreement came to a halt. Last year, on September 18, MBS stated in a televised address that it would not recognize Israel in the absence of a Palestinian state. It’s interesting to note that one week later on September 24, MBS informed US Secretary of State Antony Blinken that he personally does not care about the “Palestinian issue”. Clearly, MBS is walking a tightrope while trying to appease all sides.
How NEOM is driving Riyadh close to Tel Aviv: Israel was positioned to be a major partner in building the NEOM project – the crown jewel of Saudi Prince’s Vision 2030 which aims to create a “vibrant society, a thriving economy, and an ambitious nation”. Envisioned as a US$ 500 billion high-tech, futuristic urban industrial development along the Red Sea coast, NEOM is instrumental to diversifying the Saudi economy beyond oil and projecting the country’s soft power. NEOM however requires increased technological collaborations and capital investments, giving Israel and Saudi Arabia a strong ground for cooperation.
With the support of the United States, Riyadh and Tel Aviv were gradually becoming closer, and diplomatic normalization was in progress. U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu are rumored to have visited NEOM to meet Saudi Crown Prince MBS in November 2020. Israeli businessmen were able to go to Saudi in 2022 when Riyadh allowed flights to operate in the previously closed Saudi airspace to and from Israel. An Israeli business team traveled to Saudi Arabia in September 2023 to attend a major business conference in Dammam, one month prior to the Hamas attack. However, the geopolitics of the Gaza war had put Saudi-Israel relations on hold, thereby affecting prospects of Israeli investments in the NEOM project.
By early 2024, NEOM was under significant strain due to rising costs and lack of funds. In April 2024, the Saudi government had to scale back the NEOM project, and has been proactively approaching many countries in Asia and Europe to attract capital. Even though they managed to attract US$ 50 billion investment from Chinese firms, these small contingency investments would not be enough to keep NEOM afloat in the long run. MBS is aware that NEOM would need sustained patronage, sponsorship, and technological collaboration with the USA and its closest ally in the region – Israel. On January 9, few days before Israel Gaza ceasefire, the Saudi envoy to UK Prince Khalid Bandar in an interview with BBC expressed Riyadh’s interest in normalizing ties with Israel, adding that it must “lead to the creation of a Palestinian state.” As the dust has started to settle in Gaza, MBS would certainly want the Saudi-Israel normalization deal to happen at the earliest with the goal of reviving the NEOM project, while giving lip service to the Palestinian cause.
Way Ahead: For the Middle East, Saudi-Israel normalization would be a major game-changer. Saudi Arabia is revered as the leader of the Muslim and Arab world and many Sunni Islamic countries look up to Saudi Arabia for guidance on all religious and theological matters. If Riyadh normalizes ties with the Jewish state, it would officially be the end of an era where support for Palestinians meant total boycott of Israel. Saudi-Israel ties would send a strong signal to the entire Muslim community that they can adopt a balanced foreign policy approach which gives them the space to support the Palestinians while maintaining a functional bilateral relationship with Israel guided by strategic convergence. Thus, Saudi-Israel deal would assure Riyadh the long-term support of US and Israel for NEOM and Vision 2030. However, Trump’s recent announcement of taking over Gaza for an economic makeover and expulsions of Gazans without a right to return has upset many Arab states, including Saudi Arabia which is spearheading diplomacy with Arab states to discuss the issue and find a middle-ground. Trump’s Gaza plan would put Riyadh in a tight spot and further postpone normalization of ties with Israel, which is detrimental to its Vision 2030 goals.
In 2010, well-known American historian Immanual Wallerstein had stated that “Anyone who thinks there is going to be any significant change in the status quo in Israel/Palestine is suffering from multiple delusions”. No Israeli government would agree to it and the fractured Palestinian leadership is not in a position to negotiate with Israel, or garner any serious support from US, Saudi Arabia or other world powers that matter! In comparison with Trump’s Gaza plan, post-war Gaza under Palestinian Authority (in arrangement with Israeli authorities) could be one scenario which satisfies (at least partially) all the stakeholders –Israel, Palestinian Authority, Palestinians in Gaza and the USA.
