Geostrategic Media Political Commentary, Analysis, Security, Defense
Besides Israel, two powerful players are dominating the Middle East, Iran and Saudi Arabia, orbiting in contrasting domestic and regional goals, although being authoritarian and conservative regimes at the same time. The Middle East, a region that once was referred to as the cradle of Civilization, plunged into chaos, destruction, violence, political instability, weaponizing of oil and ground battle of great power politics.
It is hard to believe that Iran once was a staunch ally of the US in the region, and the last Shah of Iran-Mohammad Reza Pahlavi- was bent on the modernization and westernization of his country and even advised the King Faisal of KSA to follow the same modernization and liberal programs; in his response, King of KSA reminded him, “ Majesty, don’t forget, 90pc of your population is Muslim”. Ultimately, King’s words turned true and the Shah of Iran fell awake to intense and violent protests by the Iranian Public. The regime followed by the “Revolution of 1979” was deeply ideological, chanting “Death to the USA, death to Israel”. The Hostage Crisis of 1979 vaporized any sort of early settlement between Iran and the USA while the invasion of Iran by President Saddam Hussein (1980) further consolidated the ideological leaning in the rank and file of the Khomeini regime, turning Iran into a security state. Meanwhile, international sanctions and economic coercion resulted in economic sanction, unemployment and disenfranchisement of Iranian youth, who took pride in their culture, language and civilization. Despite being enriched by hydro-petroleum and gas reserves, the Iranian economy stands at $401bn and barely $3bn foreign reserves.
Khomeini’s version of 1979 has a playbook of downplaying any voice of dissent at home, and despite that Iran has seen several major protests, calling for liberal reforms, at home, but being crushed by its brutality. However, despite being weak and vulnerable at home, the Iranian regime has developed a well-integrated and coordinated network of proxies from Iraq to Lebanon to Yamen, out of the ashes of instability in these countries. Undoubtedly, the proxy network, which sought to dismantle American and Israeli influence in the region, has meant to exact pressure on international establishments not to harm Iran on its domestic front.
On the other hand, Saudi Arabia, once the home of an ultra-conservative and ideological state, has steadily transformed into a modern and liberal state under the leadership of Crown Prince Muhammad Bin Salman. Under his ambitious signature program of Vision 2030, he wanted to delink Saudi’s economy from oil dependency to trade, investment and tourism while opening up the economy of KSA same as China did during the tenure of President Deng which made China a powerhouse of production and manufacturing. Owing to his visionary and ambitious shift, KSA’s economy entered into the club of $1 trillion GDP, double that of the Iranian economy, despite having one-third of the Iranian population. At home, he has undergone the radical transformation of gender equality where women of KSA will have the same rights, privileges and opportunities in their lives, work and society as men. However, such an ambitious plan of MBS might feel resistance from an ultra-conservative segment of society which is now dormant but not fully dead.
Despite the Chinese diplomacy, Iran and KSA made a diplomatic breakthrough (2023) and sought full normalization of relations, including trade restoration, experts viewed that contrasting world views of both leaderships will be a major stumbling block in any real rapprochement. Both sides are at loggerheads in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Yemen and Gaza. Nonetheless, China which has significant trade and investment in both Iran and KSA would do its best to offset any escalated crisis between Tehran and Riyadh in the foreseeable future.
With the return of Trump to the White House, MBS felt delighted and comfortable because of Trump’s likeness to MBS and his “Maximum Pressure Campaign” against the Iranian regime through a series of economic sanctions to weaken the Iranian economy because as per Trump it is fueling conflict and war in the Middle East. Trump also wanted to crush the Iranian nuclear program, music to the ear of MBS who felt threatened by the growing gun power of the Iranian regime abroad, and Trump would be the best choice for KSA to crush down such a threat from the Iranian regime and its proxies’ network. Not to mention that during his first tenure, he was able to isolate the Iranian regime internationally while at the same time making it too difficult for the Iranian regime to sell a single drop of oil and gas to the international market. However, some experts weighed that his maximum pressure approach would be backfired to mend any significant policy change at home and abroad by the Iranian regime.
Since the 7th October attack, the Iranian regime and its proxies, especially Hamas and Hezbollah, have been devastated due to the intense militarycampaign of Israel and the non-cooperation of the Islamic World with Iran militarily at Gaza and beyond. Even in private, many Arab Kings felt delighted at the destruction of Iranian-backed proxies of Hamas and Hezbollah at the hands of the IDF. Iran failed to protect its assets and proxies’ leaders in the region, notably Hassan Nasrallah, Israel, showing the weakness of the Iranian regime at a technological and financial level to sustain its proxies’ fight with Israel. Due to the superiority of gun powder and technology and the staunch support of the USA, Iran has failed to establish full-scale détente with Israel as both countries are trading missiles on each other where Iranian loss was much greater than Israel’s. Hence, the Gaza war has exposed the vulnerability of the Iranian regime while defending its proxies and fighting with Israel amid global isolation and economic sanctions.
With the growing global isolation and failure of détente with Israel, the Iranian regime has opened another front in the Ukraine war by sending Iranian-made drones to help President Putin win of Ukraine war. Another drunk gamble by the Iranian regime has been playing to prevent its international isolation which actually turns into further global isolation and economic sanction.
Concludingly, lessons for Tehran are crystal clear that it has to dismantle its version of 1979 and seek democratic and liberal reform at home to ensure fundamental human rights. At the same time, it has upended its foreign policy of proxy’s network which is at odds with peaceful foreign policy. And its same time, the USA and other global powers would integrate the Iranian regime back into the mainstream global economy and give it a chance to become a member of the international community in a peaceful way. It is only the foreseeable future for Iran to become peaceful and prosperous; otherwise, its future will remain dark and gloomy both at home and abroad.
