The Last Supper: What Really Led to Syria’s Sudden Collapse?

Dr. Shehab Al Makahleh

In the shadow of Syria’s swift and shocking collapse, questions abound. Both supporters and opponents of the regime are grappling with the same enigma: what truly transpired? According to credible reports, the seeds of this seismic shift were sown during a clandestine dinner held in Bloudan, Syria, just days before the unraveling. The host, a prominent businessman with ties to all factions and residing in the Gulf, orchestrated this high-stakes gathering with utmost secrecy.

This exclusive meeting brought together top officials, diplomats, and advisors from around the world. The agenda: a coordinated strategy to redraw Syria’s political and territorial future without President Bashar al-Assad at its helm. Key players, including the United States, Russia, Iran, Turkey, and several Arab nations, played active roles in crafting a plan that would profoundly reshape the country.

The outcome of this “last supper” was a detailed agreement—crafted in the shadows—that laid the groundwork for the following monumental steps:

1. Military Withdrawals: Syrian army units received orders to retreat from key positions without resistance. This ensured an orderly transition and avoided disruption. Foreign militias and forces were also granted safe passage out of Syria, with guarantees against future interference in its internal affairs.
2. Military Amnesty: A sweeping amnesty for Syrian military personnel, save for select senior officers whose continued presence was deemed untenable. President Assad and his family were offered the option to remain or leave the country with assurances of safety.
3. Territorial Integrity: A pledge to preserve Syria’s borders and maintain its unity, paired with a phased withdrawal of foreign forces—including U.S., Russian, and Turkish troops—according to a mutually agreed timetable.
4. Protection of Minorities: A strict commitment to safeguarding minorities and religious sites, ensuring Syria’s social diversity remained intact amid political change.
5. Formation of a Transitional Government: A broad-based interim administration that excludes the Ba’ath Party, tasked with steering the nation toward political reform and stability.
6. Democratic Elections: A 12-month transitional period followed by parliamentary and presidential elections. These would be open to all candidates, with no veto power wielded against any contender.
7. Eradication of Extremism: A zero-tolerance policy against extremist factions operating within Syria or participating in governance.
8. General Amnesty: A comprehensive pardon for all individuals, issued by the transitional council upon its formation.

This meticulously orchestrated dinner set the stage for Syria’s transformation, carried out swiftly and with a precision that avoided resistance or external disruption. Yet, while the political script appears clear, the broader implications remain uncertain.

Five Scenarios for Syria’s Future: Which Path Will It Take?

As the dust settles, Syria stands at a crossroads. The transition is fraught with complexities, and competing powers are advancing divergent visions for the country’s future. Among the scenarios on the table are:

1. A Democratic Republic: A coalition of opposition forces establishes a unified, democratic state. This challenging path would require unprecedented cooperation but enjoys broad international backing as the most stable and inclusive option.
2. An Islamic State: Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham or similar groups lead the creation of an Islamic republic. While this could shift the region’s dynamics, it risks deepening sectarian divides and alienating minority groups.
3. A Strategic State Against Iran: Syria becomes a regional proxy for confronting Iranian influence, aligned with the interests of Israel and others. This scenario, however, threatens to escalate sectarianism and undermine long-term stability.
4. A Federal Republic: Syria is divided into autonomous regions along ethnic and sectarian lines, modeled after the Balkans. While this may appease some international actors, it could further weaken state sovereignty and stoke regional rivalries.
5. Collapse into Chaos: The worst-case scenario foresees a return to civil war and state collapse, plunging Syria into a humanitarian crisis and creating fertile ground for extremism and external interventions.

What Lies Ahead?

The real struggle now is not just about Syria’s immediate political future but the long-term implications of these plans. Will this carefully coordinated transformation lead to unity, stability, and democracy? Or will it merely open the door to new geopolitical rivalries and internal discord?

One sobering possibility is the division of Syria into sectarian or ethnic states—a scenario favored by some external powers. As global and regional players jostle for influence, the coming months will determine whether Syria emerges as a symbol of resilience or yet another victim of endless power struggles.

The Syrian people, who have borne the brunt of this conflict, deserve a future shaped by justice, peace, and self-determination. Whether the promises of the “last supper” materialize into meaningful change remains an open question—one that the world must watch closely.